Final Declarations are in for Wednesdays Juddmonte International at York Al Kazeem is a worthy favourite having won the Prince of Wales' and the Coral Eclipse already this season. Toronado steps up to 1m2f for the first time and if he stays then he must be a threat to the favourite. Declaration Of War reopposes again but he has already been put in his place by both Toronado and Al Kazeem this season. The Irish Derby winner Trading Leather takes his chance having ran a decent race behind Novellist in the King George with Hillstar just under a length back in third. Sir Michael Stoutes improving three year old will be hoping to turn the tables but whether he has enough improvement in him to trouble the market principles im not so sure. Rewarded completes the line up, a decent horse in his own right but surely just making up the numbers in the field. All the signs point to Al Kazeem winning another Group 1 here but im not so sure it will be straightforward. Im struggling to work out where the pace will come from. Trading Leather has made the running before in the Irish 2000 Guineas but i dont think it would be too wise trying those forcing tactics over 1m2f. All of Al Kazeems wins have come when he has been chasing a fairly strong pace, im not so sure he will get that here which is what is putting me off slightly. I dont think Toronado will stay 1m2f if im being honest. He hasnt been screaming out for the step up in trip and i wouldnt want to take 2/1 about him in this. Declaration of War is the interesting one for me depending on how he is ridden. Came flying home in the Eclipse but was too far back to start with, if Joseph O'Brien can keep him a bit closer to the pace i think he could be dangerous. I dont think the classic generation are good enough so i would be surprised if Trading Leather were to win and i dont think Hillstar will improve enough. Im just siding towards Al Kazeem as i think he is the best horse in the race and im hoping his class will tell, but i will also have a saver on Declaration Of War.
Afternoon all, Briefly stopping by having just read the news that Toronado steps up in trip for the Juddmonte on Wednesday! I hope you are all keeping well. Doesn't look like I've missed much of a flat season to be honest! It brought me back to the original thread I posted when tipping him for an Epsom Derby in April this year. You might remember how excited I was about his potential and you may recall me saying he was the best son of High Chaparral I could ever remember seeing. I still stand by that. I am so pleased that he has bounced back to prove that he simply was not right in the Guineas. His performances in the St James Palace and then the Sussex have both been absolutely top drawer. I always felt he would improve beyond a mile- always shaped like he saw out his races strongly as a juvenile. However, he has demonstrated a turn of foot not too dissimilar to that of Canford Cliffs a couple of years back, and therefore you wonder if he has just too much speed to stay a mile and a quarter? I certainly see why people would question. That said however, he has settled beautifully in both his last two starts and I feel that will be the key once again if he is to land another Group 1 event, especially over a mile and a quarter. The positives are that the ground is drying and the forecast is also dry, so he will get the quicker ground that he really wants. If he is going to try 10f as a 3 year old, a good place to do it would definitely be York as it is flat and therefore he can use his speed to his advantage. He will receive weight (8lb) from Al Kazeem too, so on ratings that gives him 10lb in hand on the day, yet he goes in a 2/1 second favourite. Al Kazeem beat declaration of War by two lengths at Sandown, Toronado beat him by 3 lengths in softer than ideal conditions at Goodwood, and I think on nice ground and a flat track at York, Toronado might have a touch more up his sleeve. Clearly Trading Leather will be out to make this a test of stamina therefore he and Hillstar can not be ruled out if Toronado fails to stay but an honest gallop should help Toronado settle as long as Hughes is brave enough to hold him up last again, so there ought to be no excuses. The flat season needs a sparkling middle distance performance from a three year old, and I really do hope Toronado can be the horse to do it, albeit later than my antepost money would have liked! If he stays the trip I think people will see a really lovely performance. No one in the field has his turn of foot so if he sees this out strongly he will take some stopping, but equally if he doesn't stay yet again I may be embarrassed! Hope its a race to savour, I will keep my powder dry at 2/1 but I hope he can prove himself again In the Great Voltigeur, look out for FOUNDRY (my other Derby tip) also, who makes his belated reappearance having impressed me when winning a maiden towards the end of last season. Imagine if they both won, oh the irony! Until next time -TC
I cannot work out the decision to run Toranado in this race. I read that Richard Hannon has been persuaded by Hughsie to run him where as Hannon wanted to keep him to a mile. Now I love Hughsie and consider him the best jockey riding at present along with Johnny Murtagh, but to my mind the trainer should make that call every time. I do not think he will have anywhere near the burst of speed he has shown at a mile at the end of a fast run 10 furlongs. The problem is many of the older horses will want to make it a test and have the ability to do so, the likes of Trading leather and Hillstar will not allow the race be set up for Toranado, whilst if the connections of Al Kazeem have aspirations of the Arc they will also want this to feel like an 11f race rather than a ten. I will be very happy to hold my hands up should it prove a great decision but to my mind there have been two examples of bad placement in as much as Toranado should have run in the Mile race In France won by Moonlight Cloud a couple of weeks ago or hold on until the next Mile opportunity, whilst Intello should be running in the Juddmonte this week as to put him against milers when his best is likely to be 10 or 12 furlongs was a wasted race.
Punters who are happy to pile on at Even money or a shade of odds-on will doubtless have Al Kazeem in their sights and will ignore the historically bad record of supposed good things in the Juddmonte International. He has scared off any decent middle distance older horse opposition and the ratings say that he is better than the middle distance three year olds. What punters have to ignore is that there is no obvious pace in the race and it may turn into a sprint up the straight, which would help the milers Toronado and Declaration Of War, the latter of which may be overpriced simply because he has had a rear view of both market principals this term. With no emphasis on stamina on the flat Knavesmire, has Al Kazeem got the speed to see them both off? As a four year old next year, Hillstar may come to this race with a profile similar to Al Kazeem’s current one, but this year the form says he is not good enough as he finished behind Trading Leather at Ascot. Will Trading Leather attempt to make all? It is difficult to see what he gains from dropping down in trip but that decision may have been forced by the lack of twelve furlong Group 1 races. Rewarded is making up the numbers because of the prize money, having been well beaten in a handicap last time out. If Toronado stays (and wins) will that force the Al Kazeem camp to go to Longchamp rather than Ascot?
For once id say i almost called a flat race pretty much spot on! Just a shame i didnt listen to myself!!
I put the mockers on Toronado again it seems! Blimey, he was dreadful. Punch drunk again. He was never travelling was he. He has looked like two different horsea in his last 4 separate starts. I wonder if he struggles to fo back to back in short spaces of time? Both disappointments coming very soon after his best performamces (Guineas afer the Craven, Juddmonte after the Sussex). A mystery! DOW has reversed form with two horses and Trading Leather did his standard staying on one paced- I don't know how they'll finish up next time?! Will be interesting to see where they all go. Good luck anyone punting on it! All the best -TC
You gave a fair assessment there Brough, read the race more or less to how it went except Trading leather did go on but albeit not a break neck gallop. Joseph O'Brien admitted himself he had Declaration Of War too far back last time and ultimately cost him his chance and also the ground was probably an issue for the favourite and was in favour of DOW on the day. All in all I think the front 3 ran there races and Al Kazeem will be seen in better light with a little give in future. Toronado certainly looks like he can't put up back to back performances and it certainly will be interesting to see where they all eventually end up Also, good to hear from ya Toppy ..hope all is well.
