The first Grade One chase in Ireland or the UK is this Saturday's JNwine Champion Chase at my local track Down Royal and it's looking pretty decent for this time of year. Sizing Europe 11/4 First Lieutenant 7/2 Kauto Stone 6/1 Lord Windermere 7/1 Mount Benbulben 7/1 Roi du Mee 10/1 Prince de Beauchene 12/1 Quito de la Roque 12/1 Realt Dubh 16/1 Source: Oddschecker (best odds available) A lot depends on the rainfall between now and then whether we see all of the above. Surprisingly, given the rainfall seen around the UK, the track is in fair nick currently Yielding, Good-Yielding in places. Rain is forecast though and if the track gets heavy I'd suspect a repeat of last year with Sizing Europe being scratched late on. The one I like and have had an each way dabble at and who is certain to run is Mount Benbulben at 7/1 (each-way 1/5 odds 1.2.3 Bet365). I'd be really, really keen on this ones chances should a real deluge hit before Saturday, as not only will that take out likely favourite Sizing Europe, but Gordon Elliott's charge seems very well suited by testing conditions. Perhaps most importantly the track is right handed and one thing about Mount Benbulben is he does right handed a LOT better than left handed. Should the rain not materialise I'm still happy with Mount Benbulben at 7-1 (Bet365 are paying 3 places each-way) and the way he capped off last season with a very striking win at the Punchestown Festival (by 22 lengths from Tofino Bay, Lyreen Legend in third) suggests to me 3 miles, right handed are his absolute optimium. Whilst it's his first run of the season you have to take on trust his fitness but this being a very suitable Grade One for the horse I'd expect him to be tuned up for it. Gordon Elliott has confirmed the horse's well being in recent days and after seeing Don Cossack come out today on debut to win the way he did confirms Elliott can get them ready first time out. Most importantly I'd suspect Mount Benbulben is the most progressive horse in the line up, albeit against some seasoned stars. First Lieutenant and Sizing Europe clearly are the established stars on show and are the form picks. Also in their favour are both are race fit having made their debuts last month but both have been beaten in this race in previous attempts. If the ground remains as it is perhaps Sizing Europe can prove this race third time lucky and get a well deserved Grade One over 3 miles after bad luck here twice. Once he found Kauto Star in the line-up, the next he simply tied up in dreadful ground to get mugged by Quito de la Roque. Kauto Stone won this race last year, (First Lieutenant 2nd, Quito de la Roque back in third) and Paul Nicholl's has had this as Kauto Stone's aim for a long time so he'll certainly turn up fit and ready for his seasonal debut. Lord Windermere won the RSA at Cheltenham last year but the second that day, Lyreen Legend, was well and truly trounced by Mount Benbulben at Punchestown. Roi du Mee finished in front of First Lieutenant the last day but it's hard to see him doing it again. Quito de la Roque is interesting as he has decent form in this in the past but it's hard to see him winning and he's not getting any better. Selection: Mount Benbulben 7/1 each-way
Cracking little chase in prospect. Lord Windermere is a lovely jumper of a fence and I would love to see him progress, though I can't see him becoming a top table open level chaser just yet. Kauto Stone runs very well here and 6/1 is a major value given Sizing Europe barely stays 3 miles and First Lieutenant is potentially Wetherby-bound. I'll nominate a shock turn up though with REALT DUBH finally putting it all in and nailing them all. He travels as well as anything and I think he wants a trip. He should have won this last year but for a collision in mid-air with Quito De La Roque, and had cantered all over Days Hotel at Nass before a final flight blunder ruined his chance. He is high class without having the form figures to show it and he deserves to win a big race. [video=youtube;h8AwI6b1j_0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8AwI6b1j_0[/video] [video=youtube;SRskmgqJHEA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRskmgqJHEA[/video]
Chaps I'd agree Kauto Stone looks sure to go well but I think he may be vulnerable to the improving horse I'm hoping Mount Benbulben may well prove to be. In fact I think Mount Benbulben could go well in a soft ground King George. Realt Dubh is a horse I like but I've two slight concerns about him which are this. Firstly for as well as Realt Dubh appears to be travelling in his races don't underestimate how much better Paul Carberry can make a horse look! Secondly I'd question whether he'll see out the trip well enough. On the plus side he's actually 16-1 not 12-1 as I originally stated in the OP (now edited accordingly)!
That is a good point Beefy. Carberry does exaggerate it a bit so we can never be 100% sure what is under the bonnet! I think 3m might help his jumping with them going half a stride slower. At 16/1 though it only needs to be a speculative dabble for some interest.
I couldn't bring myself to back a Nicholls horse at the moment - whilst his strike rate looks OK on paper, this is largely through winning lower standard races. His recent big race Saturday runners have been found wanting and I'm not sure the yard is the force that it was - especially with Ruby gone. As Beefy says, a lot will depend on the ground but if it isn't a bog then I expect Sizing Europe to be up to winning this ahead of a tilt at the King George.
The uncertain weather has been kind to Sizing Europe fans as the track tweeted only yesterday that they haven't had any rain and that ground was still Yielding, Good-Yldg in places. As the forecasts are largely dry between now and racetime it looks most certain that the line up will remain largely as is. If I'm on track on Saturday and Sizing Europe is around the 9/4 mark I can see myself dutching, which will be a first for me! I think he has every chance of seeing it out now on very decent ground though I'm still going to do a raindance to enhance Mount Benbulben's prospect!
Lord Windermere unlikely (running in the G2 on the same card to protect his Hennessey mark) but apparantly First Lieutenant favouring this. race.
Could do with some more rain. The track tweeted earlier that it's still yielding ground with bits of good-yielding. Also on twitter are rumours Mount Benbulben mightn't run unless the course softens up...FFS!
Final declarations (and best odds available) are Sizing Europe 5/2 First Lieutenant 11/4 Kauto Stone 5/1 Mount Benbulben 6/1 Roi du Mee 12/1 Quito de la Roque 12/1 Prince de Beauchene 16/1 Source: Oddschecker Hoping some rain arrives between now and post time to ensure Mount Benbulben takes his chance. Racing today looks like the ground is close enough to good so it won't be a slog that's for sure. I'd suggest if Sizing Europe is ever to win a Grade One over 3 miles this will be his best chance. It's a relatively easy 3 miles to get and ground conditions looking decent he must go very, very close indeed. EDIT: Heavy rainfall forecast prior to race time could soften ground which would be a major plus for MB and make it much tougher for Sizing Europe. Hope the forecast rain arrives in large doses
Safe to assume had Mount Benbulben stayed on his feet he'd have been in the top 3 at very least so my each way bet would have been successful BUT if they don't jump they don't win! Having briefly been caught out when the tempo increased he had travelled right back into the race in eye catching manner and was on the heels of the leader travelling as well as anything when he unseated but hey ho that's JUMPS racing! I still believe if they can iron out his careless jumping he'll win a very big race when conditions suit but his jumping is very fragile...
