I've done some maths.

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Boris Fenster said:
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If we win the other three, we'll be on 34 points before the year end and safe :) Happy Days!

How's your team doing against its targets? :)

The simple fact you are here and trying to bait us, tells us all we need to know about how good we are at this moment. Thank you.
 
The inaccuracy of the "results don't count until they're against the big clubs" probably owes as much as anything to the increased variability we're seeing in recent years, which itself is the result of the decline in defensive focus for bigger clubs. Go back the better part of a decade and virtually all of the European contenders surrendered less than a goal a game, typically far less; conversely, last season Man City had the second-best defensive record at .97 goals per game. Consequently, teams aren't always going into those matches attempting to simply contain...they're sending out sides that can attack in numbers, buoyed by increased money in the English game that ensures that there are few teams that don't have at least a couple dynamic attacking players. Not only is it no longer suicidal to get into a shootout with Man U, or Liverpool, etc, it's arguably the wisest tactic.

So if this was 2006, they'd be right; a good side would win the majority against mid-table-and-below clubs, but their results against the big clubs would determine their standing in that hierarchy. Now, there's just too much variability to dismiss any string of results.
 
The results against the big clubs aren't that important to qualifying for the Champions League.... Just ask Arsenal fans :)
 
All I know is that we are beating the teams that are beating or at least taking points off the 'big clubs'.
Chelsea look strong, although still prone to defensive errors, and Man City have goals in them, but so far this season, they are the only 2 'big clubs' that look like they might beat us based on form so far.
I don't believe anyone wants to play us at the moment because Saints are not only hard to score against, they are hard to keep from scoring so bring on the 'big boys' like Arsenal and Man Utd and we'll see what happens.
 
fatletiss said:
The results against the big clubs aren't that important to qualifying for the Champions League.... Just ask Arsenal fans :)
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Exactly. I've been banging this line out for a few weeks now.

Likewise, Spurs and Everton have shown over the years - hell, to a lesser extent even us in the last two years - that the odd good result against a big side will count for very little in terms of getting in the top four, if you're constantly throwing away points against the other clubs.

If you can beat 9th - 20th home and away, that is 24 wins, that is 72 points, that is (broadly) CL football. So far, WBA at home is our only blot.
 
breconsaint said:
Well we've beaten "poor teams" like QPR, West Ham and Stoke......how did Citeh do against them? Likewise, how did Man Utd get on at home against Swansea; a team we beat away. Also seem to remember Man Utd losing to Leicester, Liverpool losing to West Ham and Arsenal drawing at home to Hull. It seems that many experts think that 3 points against a top four team is worth more than 3 against a lower club! *

* BTW last time I looked West Ham were a top four team, whereas Arsenal, Liverpool and Man Utd were not.
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I think this answers it perfectly.
 
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