I have taken the time to read Gary Nutting's Festival ante-post pieces on the At The Races website and the question "Is Nutting a nutter?" has popped into my head on more than one occasion. For both articles please read - World Hurdle and Gold Cup His selections for the races are Oscar Whisky and Quito De La Slow. Rather than quoting the whole article I will draw your attention to the particular comments in question. First the World Hurdle. "The most likely way to beat Big Buck's is to do him for a turn of foot and in that respect Oscar Whisky is better equipped than Grands Crus, who gave the champion a run for his money last year." Now I was under the impression that the exact opposite was true. Grands Crus might be a very powerful traveller but he also has a decent turn of foot. See the way he scythed through the field in the Feltham, and also the World Hurdle and the Cleeve. The very reason that Oscar Whisky will not win a Champion Hurdle is that he lacks a turn of foot, meaning he is always likely to be caught a bit flat footed for finishing pace when they quicken. "He makes more appeal at the prices than his better-fancied stablemates, including third favourite Thousand Stars, who was surely flattered by his proximity to Oscar Whisky at Aintree given the way the race was run." Apparently Mourad makes more appeal than Thousand Stars. Now whilst Mourad is a probable runner and Thousand Stars is a probable non-runner I find this argument very hard to accept. Thousand Stars is a proven stayer at the trip, andhas shown himself to be very closely matched with Oscar Whisky at 2m and 2m4f. For some unknown reason Thousand Stars was clearly flattered at Aintree despite the fact that he was only 2 lengths behind Oscar Whisky in 4th in the Champion Hurdle when hampered on the bend when making his run. And now onto the Gold Cup. "With eight wins, three seconds and a third from 13 career starts (featuring two victories and two places from his four Grade 1 outings), it's perfectly reasonable to expect another bold show from the Irish-trained eight-year-old, who is guaranteed to relish every yard of the Gold Cup's 3m 2f trip". I cannot argue with his record but is it not more beneficial to look at the strength of those races, rather than just assume that they were good contests because of their Grade? For example, is neck beating of Sarando really the form of a potential Gold Cup winner? Is a hideaously outpaced beating of two blatant non-stayers in the JN Wine Champion Chase the form of a potential Gold Cup winner? Is a defeat to Synchronised and a non-staying Rubi Light the form of a potential Gold Cup winner? Is a 3/4 length defeat to Bostons Angel the form of a potential Gold Cup winner? I can answer all of those questions with one word. No. "Just touched off by subsequent RSA Chase winner Bostons Angel in last season's Fort Leney Novice at Leopardstown". Brilliant form this is considering that the RSA is terrible form. The winner, Bostons Angel, unseated when looking beaten at Down Royal, and then was only 3rd behind Golan Way at Sandown. Jessies Dream hasn't run since. Wayward Prince has been beaten in handicaps off marks of 150 (x2) and 146, and is now rated 144. Magnanimity has run once since and finished a 50l 8th in the Lexus. Time For Rupert has only won a graduation chase at Newbury but has been beaten 3 times and now rated 153. Master Of The Hall won a bottomless ground race at Aintree and is rated 148 after refusing when well beaten in a Sandown handicap. I could go on but you get the idea. The RSA form is poor. "If he wins that (and the likely testing ground is sure to help him, especially over the bare three miles) he will go to Cheltenham as Ireland's leading hope, in which case 25s is going to look a very big price indeed come March 16 when the each-way sharks are sure to be circling en masse." The testing ground will help him no doubt about that because he is slow. Being Ireland's leading hope doesn't say very much. 25s won't look very big come March and whilst the EW sharks might be circling I can think of a few who I would have ahead of him. "Purely on the Leopardstown form, Synchronised has the clear beating of him but Jonjo O'Neill's ex-handicapper lacks the overall Grade 1 profile usually associated with Gold Cup winners, which is another reason for suspecting that Quito De La Roque did not show his true worth." This sentence is laughable and not even worth a response. How it is justification for a selection is beyond me. "Although it's fair to assume a soft-ground Cheltenham would benefit the selection, the Aintree and Punchestown wins proved he doesn't need testing conditions to be effective at a high level." If a neck beating of Sarando counts as a 'high level' then so be it. And now the best bit of all . . . "Furthermore the RSA form has not worked out well" This is used to justify why he couldn't fancy Bostons Angel. However, I think he used this very performance to justify why Quito De La Roque's form was good just a few paragraphs back! I will leave it at that for the time being. I have no problem with people making selections that I disagree with, in fact, I find it useful because an alternative perspective can highlight errors that you might have made. However, his logic and reasoning appears ridiculous to my eye. I find it laughable that people are paid to write this drivel. Do others agree or is it more a question of is 'Zenyatta a zonko'?!
I'm pretty sure his selections last year where stinkers as well,avoid like the plague!! i remember watching the ATR festivel review and Mick Fitzgerald was brilliant.I cleary remember tipping up peddlars cross,big zeb spirit river which all one on the same day-I'll be having a look again this year. Your man Enzo is muck and Hugh Taylor is hot and cold-Which he focus more on NH rather than crappy all weather fixtures!!Mr Nuttings pic doesnt do him any favours either!
Fitz did a 'mark your card' speach in the marquee I was in years ago - I said to him I really fancy Edredon Bleu in teh Queen Mother, he said forget that we've found all the problems with Tuitchev, he'll love the ground and we're expecting to win, Tuitchev is a better horse than Henrietta's will ever be. The rest is history - never forgave him.....
Nutting The Nutter is back with a look at the Ryanair Chase . . . "QUITE why a Cheltenham victory of any kind has so far eluded MEDERMIT is one of life's great mysteries but he has a good chance of setting the record straight in the Ryanair Chase and rates cracking each-way value at the very least. It's hard to fault his attitude considering his 23 career starts have yielded eight wins, six seconds and four thirds - indeed the only times he's failed to make the first four was when seventh to Binocular in the 2010 Champion Hurdle and when refusing at Huntingdon on his second outing over fences, having apparently been spooked by a reflection from the bright winter sun. That Champion Hurdle reverse apart, his Cheltenham record (seven starts) also stands close inspection, featuring a narrow defeat by Go Native in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle (which he might well have won had he not been hampered at the last flight) and a similar near-miss under a biggish weight in the Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup in December. On both occasions he bounded up the hill and never flinched despite having a hard race. It's hard to fault his attitude considering his 23 career starts have yielded eight wins, six seconds and four thirds. This last performance is key to his Ryanair prospects as it confirmed that 2m5f, the trip over which he beat subsequent Arkle winner Captain Chris at Sandown last year, suits him much better than the minimum distance despite his high-class form as a two-mile hurdler. Furthermore, in ratings terms it represented a career-best performance (beaten threequarters of a length by Quantitatveeasing, to whom he was conceding 12lb) and the time was fast too, giving him a great chance on the clock of going one better at the Festival. Compare that to last year's Arkle, for which he started favourite but was soon struggling to go the pace, with the suspicion that his Sandown victory the previous month had taken the edge off him. Even so, the way he stayed on in the closing stages suggested the trip was too short anyway. The rhythm of 2m5f races clearly suits Medermit better over fences and there's room for more improvement on that handicap run as his jumping was a bit hit-and-miss by his standards, in keeping with several others in what proved a rough race. King now knows the eight-year-old well enough to have him spot-on for March 15 and his record suggests it's the best time to catch him as he's twice disappointed post-Festival, in the Scottish Champion Hurdle and last year's 2m4f novice chase at Aintree where he looked laboured despite finishing second to Wishfull Thinking. The latter's second to Noble Prince in last season's Jewson makes me think the Ryanair prices may be wrong as Paul Nolan's gelding heads the market at 6-1, some ten points shorter than you can get about Medermit. Wishfull Thinking's form has deteriorated this season, while Noble Prince has hardly torn up any trees either. It's true he's likely to have his ideal ground again at Cheltenham, which hasn't been the case in Ireland, but I still reckon he's worth taking on at the price. Albertas Run, bidding for a hat-trick in the race, can't be recommended until we have a better idea of whether he's over his recent problems and a similar remark applies to Captain Chris following his dismal effort in the Argento, in which his repeated jumping to the right suggested some sort of physical problem. Rubi Light, third last year, should go well again but is no great value himself at around 7-1 and although Somersby finished one place ahead of Medermit when chasing home Master Minded over 2m3f at Ascot in November, it does appear Henrietta Knight's star is better there than anywhere else, particularly when you consider the roles were reversed the last time they met at Cheltenham, in the Supreme." I actually agree with the selection here. I think he's overpriced on his form and would have him above a few who are ahead of him in the market. The logic is also harder to criticise, although the strength of his argument is paper thin at best. There is no argument, just vague comments. Oh well. Somebody has to do it I suppose.
He has selected Finian's Rainbow for the Champion Chase. However, I thought the following quote was amusing to say the least: "Of course Sizing Europe, aged ten, may win simply because he's the best two-miler around, but at such cramped odds I'm very happy to take him on." Indeed, the fact that he might win because he's the best two-miler around is a fantastic insight into the race.
Today he looks at the Champion Hurdle and we have conclusive evidence that the answer to the question posed is an emphatic 'yes'! "Despite his deeply impressive record over hurdles (12 wins from 14 starts, including ten Grade 1s), the Hurricane has yet to have his stamina properly tested in a strongly run two miles." Fortunately he has had his stamina tested over 2m4f in Grade 1 company on soft ground. For any interested, his EW selection was Rock On Ruby at 14/1.
