Investec Derby

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K

kentuckyfriedbeefcake

Member
May 22, 2011
100
0
16
London Town
Carlton House 5/4
Pour Moi 9/2
Recital 7/1
Seville 8/1
Native Khan 10/1
Ocean War 14/1
Roderic O'Connor 16/1
Masked Marvel 20/1
Casamento 20/1
Memphis Tennessee 25/1
Treasure Beach 25/1
Vadamar 33/1
Genius Beast 33/1
Nathaniel 33/1
Bar 50/1

Carlton House seemed to lack a turn of foot in the Dante and Pisco Sour (40-1), who finished third, was only beaten four lengths, which wouldn't be so bad if CH was a 12-1 shot, but you'd have to be certifiably insane to back him at evens or less. Fallon is very sweet on Recital (carried his head to one side at Leopardstown) and Seville wasn't given a hard race in the Dante and will definitely improve for the run, but if O'Brien and his Coolmore buddies, who also own Pour Moi, had a really outstanding 3yo colt, why would they need to run five horses in, what is, a seriously sub-standard Derby? Native Khan, who finished third in the 2000 Guineas, has been rejected by Kieren Fallon, so you can definitely put a line through him. The remaining horses can be ignored.
 
I like Casamento, he was the one horse who tried to keep tabs on Frankel in the Guineas, and he paid for it late on as a result! Had it been a normal guineas ran at a normal pace, I believe he would have made the frame. That RP Trophy form is solid, and he should improve for a step up in trip!

Native Khan would be the other I like, I think the Guineas form was a freak race, and there is plenty of value to bd had about horses beaten in the race!

Not sure about the Andre Fabre thing, I don't see what it's done to warrant being 9/2 2nd fav! Carlton House is a worthy jolly, but far to short because of his owner:biggrin:
 
A really disappointing line up this year but hopefully a new star will emerge. Some amazing horses and races heading soon to Ascot so it would be a shame for the Derby to disappoint in what should be a great year of racing.
 
I just wrote up my views on the Derby and made the silly mistake of not composing off line, and accidentally closed the wrong window and couldn't recover it. I'll do it later but in looking for an outsider I came up with Ocean war at 16/1 (provided the the jockey chooses this one in preference to Genius Beast), and William Hills' 40/1 Treasure Beach looks attractive..
 
I disagree completely that Carlton House is too slow. To me his potential weakness is that he has too much pace and consequently doesn't get home. Both his parents were best at 10f so that must be a concern to his backers. He is a worthy favourite but is far too short for me to be getting involved.

The one that i'm most interested in at the current prices is Native Khan. I think he is massively overpriced at 12/1 on his Guineas form. I think he will improve for the trip and connections seem confident that he will stay. With Fallon on top i think he should be nearer 7 or 8/1. Must have a huge EW shout.
 
Fallon has rejected Native Khan in favour of Recital. He may have his detractors, but Fallon is a very good judge of a horse and if he has turned down the ride on NK, he can't have much of a chance.
 
Godolphin look like they're relying on Ocean War alone - Casamento they've said heads for the French Derby and Genius Beast being saved for Ascot.
Roderic O'Connor is heading for the French race too.
Carlton House they've announced today has a minor injury so if they indeed pull him out then an AOB 1-2-3 would be a sound possibility imo!
Seville based on his run in the Dante would then be my pick!
 
Yep - seen all the posts on here and what's on the RP site. Just a wait and see job now and hopefully he gets there 100%
 
It would not be Derby week without a scare story about the favourite or one of the principals. I still expect Carlton House to be lining up on Saturday.

The fact that Fallon has rejected Native Khan is no reason to be put off. The last couple of years Coolmore have gone to Epsom with five or six runners and have not won.

If you take 20/1 Casamento, make sure you are on non-runner no-bet because it will not be at Epsom unless the weather forecast is comprehensively wrong.

It is hard to get excited about Andre Fabre’s runner as his previous participants have hardly featured and the French have not won the race since Empery in 1976.

Until the race is actually run there is no point speculating on whether it is a good Derby or not. Every year folks say the race looks ordinary and then when something good wins (e.g. Sea The Stars) it suddenly becomes a great renewal with hindsight.
 
Sea The Stars; Rip Van Winkle and Fame And Glory looked a good one before hand and does in hindsight too! I don't get the same feell from Carlton House; Recital and Seville - but as said time will tell!
 
I must admit FB, this really does look like a poor renewal. I wonder what the Timeform ratings are going into this race compared to previous years. I've been examining the form and it's all over the place. Can't make anything of it at all. There are only 4 horses that come into the race that haven't been beaten this season and one of those hasn't run yet (actually that one is a NR I've just noticed) so there are in fact only 3, namely:
Carlton House
Ocean War
Treasure Beach

I would have fancied Ocean War but why is regular jockey Mickael Barzalona on Pour Moi. That worries me unless Frankie is coming in for the ride.

For me Treasure Beach has done nothing wrong. Had a terrible run when thrashed by Frankel last year and is much, much better that the losing distance indicates. I would estimate that he would definitely have been second probably about 6l behind Frankel. I don't think anyone would have been too surprised, with hindsight, had Frankel run in the Derby and coasted up by 6l. He has won on good to firm as a 2yo and over 10f this season and he is by Galileo out of a mare by Mark of Esteem who sired (cough) Sir Percy to win a Derby. So it wouldn't be too surprising if he stayed the trip. If he were to in on Saturday we could look back and make a case for him being the one with the best form (apart from Nathaniel). The other day when I mentioned him 40/1 was available but now 25 seems to be the best on offer. I quite like his chances for a place.

Carlton House. Couldn't see past this one after his cosy Dante win but the injury, however minor, is a worry and he's out to 2/1.

Recital looks better every time I look at his form. He's only been beaten once and that was on his reappearance when 3rd behind Banimpire and Regent Street. He has since beaten the latter by 3l (a 4l turn round) which would have made him an easy winner of that reappearance run. Banimpire has since won 2 fairly high value races before running just over 2l behind Misty for Me in a fast run Irish 1000. Although Misty for me was down the field in the English 1000Gns she bounced back to win the Irish equivalent. So that doesn't make Banimpire's attempt at a mile look too bad, considering she seems better over further. So I'm inclined to look at Recital as more of an undefeated horse.

My selections (ignoring Carlton House)
1. Recital
2. Nathaniel
3. Treasure Beach

On my present form that gives you 4 to avoid.

Oh and if Frankie rides Ocean War that must have a chance. Without trying to work it out it may be possible to back those against Carlton House with odds in your favour. a bit complicated for me at this time of night.
 
Rip Van Winkle wasn't realy a 12f horse, plus he was highly overrated at a mile. Yes *** was a useful 12f horse, but I still feel he was short of top class. STS yes he was top draw. The Derby is never a race full of G1 performers, people always overrate the race every year, but let's be fair there's rarely more than 2 G1 winners come from the race :biggrin:
 
I think Recital will hold a good chance if Fallon can get him to settle. Carlton House is a questionable stayer and does not represent value in my opinion and the only other one I would risk at a price is Ocean War. Treasure Beach may also hold some EW claims but I would be surprised if he were good enough to win even in this mediocre field.
 
Hi, this is my first post ever on this thread. I am looking forward to many many more.
IMO (for what it's worth) I will be backing Ocean War E/W. I think it has a very good chance of at least a place.
Great thread by the way :)
 
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