Librisa Breeze is back out again this Saturday in the Hungerford at Newbury and i'm going back to the well again. 4/1 favourite currently, with Breton Rock 7/1. I know many on here just don't seem to rate Librisa as a top class animal, but my eye disagrees - even this season when he's been tried at the very top level, his acceleration when in the clear still makes me think he has the beating of some very good horses, and I remain convinced there is a Group 2/Group 1 race there to be won with this one when the gaps appear. I am appalled that Robert Winston is still the jockey given the task of finding them - I just don't think he reacts quick enough in a race. They obviously think he must be held up and produced late, but if he's running into traffic with 2/3f left, then at least do everything possible to get the horse into clear air on the outside and give him a chance. Hopefully this is the race when we finally see if the horse is capable of landing a big one at this level, I just want to see him in the right place in the race at the right time, and if he proves not to be good enough then fair enough. I fully expect i'll be back on here at 3:45 Saturday lamenting the ride he's been given, but have to back him again.
One thing is for sure David. If you don't back him, he'll win I agree he has acceleration a plenty and he needs to be placed to have a chance to show it. I'm going to have a look at his form to see if I can spot anything that makes the difference (eg going, track, pace of race, jockey etc). With his acceleration he is bound to win something that's for sure.
Since moving to Dean Ivory he has had 8 races. All 3 wins have come in handicaps. One on the AW, one on good to firm and one on soft, both the turf wins were at Ascot over 7f. At Goodwood over 7f he couldn't have met with more interference if he tried and still beaten less than 4l Couldn't handle Portage over 8f in the soft at Ascot Of the other 3 races 2 were G1s at Ascot over 6f. He finished well in both but reading between the lines it looks to me as though 6f is just a bit too sharp at that level (ie against true sprinters) The other race was at York in a G3 over 7f where he appeared to have no excuses He has started fav twice; both were at Ascot when he won. What I can deduce from that is he likes Ascot and 7f suits him well there. 7f is a tricky distance for a lot of horses; sprinters don't quite get the trip and milers find it a little sharp. So I think 7f is a niche that favours him. He doesn't mind the ground as he carried 9.9 to victory on soft and 9.1 on good to firm. If I were betting I would only have small amounts ew if racing at 6f or a mile. I would have a bit more ew if over 7f but not at Ascot. If over 7f at Ascot I would lump on ew at early prices and if the money comes for him, lump on a bit more
Every chance the race could cut up a bit as well so have taken the 4/1 ante post now. It's a win bet for me, as I think he'll win if getting out into the clear early enough, but could well finish 8th if Winston rams him up the backside of another horse
That run convinces me that he's group level. He was eased towards the finish yet still finished a length ahead of Spirit of Valor, who didn't seem to have any excuses. Spirit of Valor who was a neck behind Le Brivido before going on to win a Group 2 at the Curragh. If we take the Lennox form as solid (Librisa finished a length behind Aclaim who finished second in a group 1 in France last weekend), then factor in that he never got any sort of run, and the visual impression he makes when he does, and Winston will do well to have him out of the frame again here in a far weaker race
Newbury is a straight 7f, like Ascot (albeit going in the other direction). It has slight undulations throughout which shouldn't be a problem
He sure does have pace. His acceleration, as explained previously is due to the other horses having been ridden hard to win a race, their little hooves are beginning to fill with lactic acid and tire and our Librisia Breeze plods on by the very tired but can't catch the getting tired ones as they have been busy early winning the race. That said, I haven't seen the racecard yet and it may be adequate enough so he can make the frame.
All makes sense. Breton Rock will be reopposing and there will be some decent fillies in there, but don't see Daban/Kaspersky (3rd and 4th faves) or any of the others being good enough to worry about. Final decs tomorrow I guess so hoping a few come out, smaller the field the more confident I'll be
11 declared. Breton Rock, Kaspersky and Spangled seem the dangers, and might have a little each way on the last named as I have her well up there on form. Goes well fresh and 12/1 makes her a nice each way investment. Am at least happy that with this smallish field there should be no excuses in running, so either Librisa wins me a nice packet on Saturday or saves me a nice packet in future!
I think there is one horse in there that we have all overlooked. Nathra 10/1 trained by Gosden A lightly raced filly by that very good 7f specialist Iffraaj. Iffraaj was sired by the brilliant miler Zafonic out of Pastorale who was by the brilliant miler Nureyev. She has had just the one run this year when 6th to On Her Toes at Ascot over a mile btn 2¾l. Fav "Held up towards rear, shaken up to try to make progress on inner well over 1f out, keeping on but no chance of winning when ran out of room last 100yds and eased" May last year she was btn 1l by the brilliant unbeaten filly La Cressonniere over a mile in a G1 at Deauville on good going, with Quema behind. She was subsequently well btn by Quema in a G1 at Ascot on good to soft over a mile and on her final race last year was well btn by Cougar Mountain over a mile at Newmarket She has had 3 runs over 7f and won all 3, one a G3. With the 7f and quite likely suitable conditions underfoot she could be the dark horse in this field. She has entries in a G2 and 2 G1s
You took the words right out of my mouth Ron. Nathra ran in the 1000 guineas last season and wasn't disgraced. Providing she gets some juice in the ground I can see a big run. Gosden won the race last year too and for me an interesting jockey booking who is picking up a lot of rides right now...
There are plenty of dangers I guess... Massaat beat Ribchester last season and who knows where he stands on his return. Nathra/Spangled/Daban all good fillies capable of getting in the frame, but in a field this small (couple might still come out on the day I think), with plenty of pace angles, I don't even think Winston will be an excuse if Librisa doesn't win this one. Got on at the right price at least - 4/1 on Librisa I think is fair but now 5/2 across the board? Seems far too short
That's what I thought David. I fancied Librisa Breeze at the time you put him up but now the price is too short which is why I started looking for more value
Really hope it wins and for the first time ever i won't be backing it, just too short for me and i can't see past Daban, just doesn't tick enough boxes ( no 5 year old winner since 03 ) , Winston riding it and giving weight away to Daban. Eirene looked ****ing impressive today that is a serious horse and if it trains on right and strengthens over the summer that will be comfortably a G1/G2 horse next season so i really hope Ivory can get off the mark with the Group 2 with Librisa then try nab a G1 at Ascot on champions day. So yeh i'll be cheering Librisa on but just can't have it @ that price. Would probably want 6/1. I did text my cousin yesterday and he said yard are quietly confident and the horse is well as always but just being a bit more reserved with confidence because of the bad luck Librisa's had in running, hopefully Eirene was a sign though, would of made Dean feel a bit better too being ill, i'm sure he'll be there tomorrow!
I'm pretty confident that Librisa wins tomorrow. On softish ground, in a smallish field, I feel this is the perfect race for him to finally step up at this level. If out in the clear with a furlong to go I don't see another horse in the race capable of living with his turn of foot. Good luck all
Onya Dave, nice to see someone with a passionate support for a horse. All the best mate, I hope it salutes.
Fully agree, Librisa Breeze should win this comfortably. Good luck to everyone who backed it. Price too short for me, so I've had another e/w bet on Sir Dancealot who ran an absolute stinker in the Stewards' Cup. So, try again!
