Do people really think we're already safe? I honestly, 100% expect us not to get another point this season so if that is the case, will that be enough? I dont think it will. And if that is the case, how much do you care? Obviously I'd prefer both but I'd defo rather win the cup and get relegated if it was one or the other.
I think not expecting us to get another point is rather pessimistic - BUT, imagining for the sake of argument we don't, I think Sunderland, Cardiff and Norwich will all fail to reach 36 points.
I think we'll get at least 2 more points; Arsenal, Man Utd and Everton are possible 1-pointers, and Fulham and Villa are possible 3-pointers. So, I think we'll get somewhere between 2 and 9 points between now and the end of the season. 38-45 points.
I do think we're safe, BUT I remember thinking last season that we had promotion pretty much wrapped up when we won at Ipswich, and we tried our best to mess it up in the last 4 games. So I'm not ruling out the possibility of us doing that again.
Because I think they'll beat us, obviously. What's so unusual about that? Are you saying it's impossible for them to beat us? That wasnt the question. I asked if we're already safe, as most people seem to think.
Doubt there's many who are 100%, but most 80-90%. Bookies have us at 80/1, if you think there's a serious chance of us going down you might as well put a few bob on it (blasphemy). I'm not too concerned looking at the fixtures of the bottom 3/4. Even if we crapped out and got nowt from our last 5 matches, unless we get mullered 5-0 each time: Sunderland would have to go 4-0-1 or 3-2-0 at least. Norwich would need at least 5 points against 4 top 7 sides Cardiff would need 8 points from 4 remaining matches Just one of those happening is highly unlikely, for all 3 of them to happen would be a miracle. That's probably why the odds are so long. Chill, Winstahn.
Let's see: Sunderland Points behind: 10 Games remaining: 5 Relative GD: -19 Assuming they can't overcome the GD that means they need either 3 wins and 2 draws or 4 wins to overtake us. Games remaining: Chelsea (A) Cardiff (H) Man Utd (A) WBA (H) Swansea (H) Potential to win 4 or get a result in all 5? Slim Cardiff Points behind: 7 Games remaining: 4 Relative GD: -28 Assuming they can't overcome the GD that means they need either 2 wins and 2 draws or 3 wins to overtake us. Games remaining: Stoke (H) Sunderland (A) Newcastle (A) Chelsea (H) Potential to win 3 or get a result in all 4? Slim, but arguably slightly better than Sunderland Fulham Points behind: 6 Games remaining: 4 Relative GD: -34 Assuming they can't overcome the GD that means they need either 2 wins and 1 draw or 3 wins to overtake us. Games remaining: Spurs (A) Us (H) Stoke (A) Palace (H) Potential to win 2 or get a result in 3? Slim, but arguably slightly better than Cardiff. If we get a point off them then they need to win the other 3. Norwich Points behind: 4 Games remaining: 4 Relative GD: -21 Assuming they can't overcome the GD that means they need either 1 win and 2 draws or 2 wins to overtake us. Games remaining: Liverpool (H) Man U (A) Chelsea (A) Arsenal (H) Potential to win 2 or get a result in 3? Doubtful. If we get a point off Fulham and Sunderland and Cardiff draw their game against each other we're pretty much there. Ignoring our draw (or getting any more points) then the odds are still stacked well in our favour (ignoring that WBA, Swansea and Villa all need at least 2 points in their remaining games)
We have not finished as we should have and we should not blame the cup. There are too many factors at play to look at it without, at least at least, a pinch of concern. Don't write Sunderland off yet - to stay up, that is.
Don't think we will take our eyes off league ball - I also see no reason why we won't get at least a point from Fulham and Villa away games and maybe a point a piece from Arsenal and Everton at home.
Well, somewhere between 38 and 45 points should see us safe. That said, if Fulham beat Spurs, our game against Fulham becomes massive - as obviously if they beat us, they'd then be level on points with us!
The players are playing for their places so no easing up. But yes its going to get a bit tight. Think we'll do Fulham.
Yeah, and we havent already got between 38-45 points. The key was in the question 'are we already safe?'
FFS, get a grip. Whilst i think that we have enough points already I also think that we have 2 more wins in us.
I'm hoping they've picked up a bit of confidence after the semi victory and some might think they are playing to start at Wembley or even a chance to come on later in the game.
We'll do Arsenal, we'll do Fulham and Swansea, then, having given them a sniff of the delights, we'll break Everton's heart. Life's a bitch, start growling.
