Now we're starting to (finally) get towards the back end of the Flat season, thoughts are starting to turn towards the proper stuff. National Hunt is veering over the horizon at us I don't recall heading into a new season with such uncertainty with regards to so many of last season's top performing horses. So to gauge opinion from the learned forumites I shall list, and very briefly, outline what I think may be the path some of these animals are heading. The question is 'to hurdle or to chase'? 1. Faugheen Initial expectations were that he'd go chasing but his performance over the minimum trip at Punchestown seemed to cure his achilles heel, namely his jumping. I could describe that performance in many ways but I think 'savage' is perhaps most accurate. As arguably both his best performances were over the minimum trip (also won his bumper over 2m by over 20l from none other than Josses Hill!) I think he'll go Champion Hurdle, and I think he'll win it. Last season's Champion horses are very closely rated and for that reason I suspect there's no superstar in this division. This lad reeks of superstardom. 2. More of That After the World Hurdle some said a bubble was burst, others said the winner's just a damned good horse and I'd go with the later. The hurdling division looks right at his mercy as you have to wonder whether last season's staying novices are quite up to this lofty standard and several of the vanquished animals behind him look destined for the birch fences. By default simply it looks like this fellow has the World Hurdle at his mercy. We know JP likes a staying hurdler and since Baracouda he hasn't had a champion one so I think they'll keep him to the hurdles path and as he's still only 6, they could still send him chasing next season should they desire. 3. Beat That Still looks unfurnished to my, albeit far from expert, eye but I think this animal will go chasing. EDIT: Just heard in a Nicky Henderson interview this week that he states that stablemate Whisper will go chasing, therefore I'd have to revise my original opinion that Beat That goes chasing. You would suspect he'd keep them too apart so it sounds very much like Beat That will stay hurdling. Adds depth to the World Hurdle but last year's winner sets a lofty standard. 4. Vautour The trainer always maintained this horse is a chaser in the making. As himself and Faugheen are both Ricci owned, the reasonable assumption is one goes chasing, whilst the other stays hurdling aiming for the Champion Hurdle. Having seen them both in the flesh, Vautour definitely is the bigger, he also jumps 'bigger' (and therefore safer), I think he's a chaser alright. 5. Annie Power Too much was said and written about her last year so I'll keep it brief. Huge size and scope for chasing and could well be your JLT winner! I could have added many, many others but think these 5 are particularly interesting so it would be great to hear everyone's opinion
The only one I would comment on Beefy is Vautour - I would love to see him kept over hurdles, think he would be a real contender for the big one BUT if they do send him novice chasing then the world better look out - he is an absolute machine, huge engine, travels superbly and has the scope to make a top, top chaser.
Like oddy would love to see vautour stay over hurdles and also see More of that over the fences he looks to have so much scope but he does seen to have the staying hurdle at his mercy if he performs like he did at the festival
So Nicky states on Morning Line that My Tent or Yours will likely be schooled over fences. Definitely think that could help him settle but is his hurdling fluent enough? I'd have slight reservations on that score, he does fiddle his hurdles at times. Sounds from what he said like he's trying to make plans around where Mullins' is sending his battalion!
AP on ATR just said MTOY is more likely to stay over hurdles - apparently NH thinks he's a Champion Hurdle winner in waiting
I saw the piece on The Morning Line with Nicky Henderson and his main problem with My Tent Or Yours is getting the horse to settle, until which time it will be the horse that could win the Champion Hurdle but beats itself. The footage that they showed would suggest that is exactly the case – he fights McCoy for half the race and there is nothing left in the tank at the end. My answer to “If they were yours where would you send them?” ought to be “Where is the nearest dog food or glue factory”...
I will assume that you are referring to my last-line joke (that was why I put a smiley face), Ron. I know that there are more National Hunt followers on here than flat so I was interested to see whether any of them would bite and slap me down but the first reply was a leading supermarket brand. I did get that joke. Dexter wants to send them all to Mr Henderson. Does he make Tesco Lasagne?
I read your post as tongue in cheek, I'm a flat fan hence my comment but you were risking it a bit, they're a sensitive bunch these NH lovers!
I knew you did. In reality, I was timing how long it would take for somebody to tell me to f*** off. Obviously they were not reading or did not feel the inclination to reply. That is fair enough – I let their remarks go and I am sure that they have noticed that between November and April they scarcely hear from me on NH matters as I observe but virtually never bet.
Beefy, IF you were the owner of Annie Power, what would you honestly think was her right race- an Arkle, or a JLT? For me personally there is no horse built better for an Arkle than her. Has the natural speed and the scope for fences, although only Willie will know if she jumps them. Way too early to be concerned with antepost. Faugheen is a machine and should go Champion Hurdle. He looked far better at the minimum trip and can use his cruising speed to his advantage. He can always step up in trip later on down the line. Agree he could be the one to take up the mantle from a very good but closely matched group last season.
By the way, as Graham Cunningham rightly pointed out- Gold Cup might just be the most open race of them all? Bobs Worth and Conti both look vulnerable. Cue Card still has to prove stamina. Lord Windermere needs to prove there was no fluke. Right open market I imagine there.
Faugheen - CH and will win it More Of That - RSA Chase as looks a star, Gold Cup in 2016 Beat That - World Hurdle, needs some growing yet, looks a bit unfurnished and lacks experience Vautour - Arkle and then Gold Cup maybe ? Annie Power - Mares Hurdle
That would be a nice IF wouldn't it IF I was in the owner's position however, I'd also own Vautour and out of those 2 (as novice chasers) I'd have Vautour in the Arkle and Annie in the JLT. Absolutely no doubt about that. Annie hasn't proved herself over 2 miles on decent ground and furthermore we know she stayed the 3 mile of the WH no problems, so there'd be no reason to drop her back to 2 miles when the JLT's her perfect trip. If Vautour doesn't go novice chasing and Faugheen does, you simply substitute Faugheen for Vautour into the above argument! What WOULD be a massive disappointment was if she took the mares hurdles route. She's surely too good for that and don't the stable have Glen's Melody for that anyway? Agree about Gold Cup. My only strong view at this stage is it'll be won by a second season chaser. It'll be a pretty awful GC if something from last year's comes back to win it. And I speak as someone who flukily backed last year's winner before the Hennesey
If it was me - Faugheen - Arkle More Of That - World Hurdle Beat That - Novice Chasing Vautour - Arkle Annie Power - Arkle but it will be Champion Hurdle/ Mares Hurdle
