How much does Championship performance matter in the Prem?

Simple question: does where one finishes in the Championship -- and the attack/defense balance of said team -- serve as a predictor of Premiership survival? It's entirely unnecessary research project time!

Over the ten seasons preceding this one, the next-year survival rate and average Prem points total for the three times of promoted clubs (Championship winners, 2nd place, and playoff winners) are as follows:

Champions - 7/10 survived, with an average of 39.8 points. High: Reading, with 55. Low: Sunderland, with 15.
Second auto - 6/10 survived, with an average of 40.5 points. High: Wigan, with 51. Low: West Brom, with 26.
Playoffs - 4/10 survived, with an average of 36.2 points. High: West Ham, with 55. Low: Derby, with 11.

So, does winning the Championship portend better at the next level than sneaking in via the second automatic promotion spot? Not in the slightest; neither the survival rate or the average points total is statistically significant. Going up via the playoffs is a slightly different story, though hardly a death sentence.

As at least two of the three clubs promoted in 2011 will survive, we've now reached the point where a recently-promoted team is much more likely to succeed in staying up for at least one year than they are to experience the drop; depending on what happens with QPR, the overall survival rate covering those 11 seasons will either register at 57.6% or 60.6%. Those aren't bad odds, all told; the gap between the 10th-to-25th best teams in England seems to be shrinking, and teams entering the Premiership now have well above a 50/50 chance of sticking around.


What of style? Does how you got promoted matter?

Teams that led the Championship in scoring during the season in which they were promoted: 6/7 survived.
Teams that led the Championship in goals allowed during their promotion season: 4/7 survived.

Teams that finished second or third in scoring during the season in which they were promoted: 7/15 survived.
Teams that finished second or third in goals allowed during their promotion season: 7/10 survived.

Teams that finished with the best goal differential in the Championship whilst getting promoted: 6/8 survived.
Teams that finished second or third in goal differential whilst getting promoted: 6/12 survived.



So, if one were to use those smallish sample sizes to determine the type of team that would have the best hope of surviving the first season in the Premiership, the desired attributes would be:

Promoted automatically (either spot), led the league in scoring while being one of the top three defensive sides, and thus owned the best goal differential of any Championship team that year.


That sounds familiar.

 

The first part of that was interesting, but the second bit was a little unnecessary. Usually the top teams score the most; I can't remember a team getting promoted as low goal scorers.

I don't think the championship season has too much bearing on the Premiership. What does is the preparation of the team, the correct signings and momentum at the right time.

 

There are, surprisingly, a number of teams who got promoted despite being less-than-prolific goal-scorers...West Brom finished second in '01/'02 despite being outscored by eleven Championship sides, and second again in '03/'04 while getting outscored by eight teams. Derby finished third in '06/'07 and won through the playoffs while tying for tenth in goals scored, and Birmingham went up in an automatic promotion spot three years back while getting outscored by a team (Norwich) that was relegated to League One in that same season.

 

I stand corrected!

 

Promotion should favour survival. Teams who just stay in the PL the previous year obviously have problems they have to address. The teams coming up are doing things right and are good teams. The important thing is to keep the core of a successful team together.

 

These are interesting stats, and thanks for putting these on. There is something immeasurable though, and that is this momentum issue. I have no doubt that it is what carried Saints forward at the start of the season. Maintaining the unity that Nigel Adkins and his staff have achieved is going to be a huge challenge as it is commonly acknowledged that there is a need to bring in new players. Players like Hammond will have every right to ask of a new player threatening his place in the side "Where were you when we were ****?" just as we fans asked of our fair weather friends who filled the seats at the Northam last Saturday! I accept that in NA we have a manager capable of rising to this challenge, but we should not underestimate it.

Two quick points:

From memory Saints have never won a league, yet we went up and stayed pretty well in '66. In '78 we stayed up for 27 years and had those golden years of top 6 finishes and being seen as contenders. The team that went up as champions in '78 were our old friends Bolton. They lasted one year, I seem to recall, and then began to yo-yo.

The critical point in both '66 and '78 was the signing of new players. Ron Davies kept us up in '66/'67. We nearly got relegated having almost outscored the free scoring Man Utd of Best, Law and Charlton who finished champions. When we went up in '78 Lawrie had made signings that took us out of Div 2 who were experienced in Div 1 - Ball, Boyer et al.

 

Fran is right of course. Any team that gets promoted from the Championship has to look at the strength of their team available to them. If you have a core of decent players that have played regularly in the side and with each other for 2/3 seasons. Then you stand a decent chance of not only surviving but of progressing. The key in my book is going to be what Nigel brings in, in the way of experience. To boost what he has already got, not to forget how tough he is on getting rid of players that he feels will not make the grade. We can all speculate on who those players will be that will go. Same as for the players likely to come in. Which ever way you look at it NC has some very huge decisions to make. He now has to make his next plans if he genuinely wants to progress to the next stage which is obviously the Champions league. That is not an easy step as we all know. To me it's like a chicken and egg situation really. To get to that kind of standard you need half decent players. To get half decent players you have to get the best you can and pay the going rate. You then have to sustain that level of play so need to be getting the crowds in to be able to pay them. So it means we have to have a bigger ground or expand our current one. Either way you have to speculate to accumulate. So for my way of thinking we have to carefully do all those things as we go along......which means of course to me at least we will have to expand the ground to be able to attract the larger crowds to bring more money in for the next stage....All is a big gamble!!

 

Cortese takes calculated risks not gambles. Ground expansion will be part of a plan already laid down, but will not be a knee jerk reaction. The important thing being worked on now will be next season. If we do well in 2012/13 (as we will), I wouldn't be surprised if Nicola makes some announcement about future plans at the end of that season. Expansion of the academy must be occupying his mind at the moment. How many balls can be juggled at once?

 

Is this rhetorical or are you looking for a pithy answer?

You are spot on here, Fran. I am sure that Nigel's wife is not going to see a lot of him in the next few weeks. There are some key expansion decisions to be made and Cortese is far too astute to over-reach himself. It's going to be interesting ..

 

Personally I'd be surprised if some form of stadium expansion isn't done this summer.

 

This is a massive undertaking, especially at a time of construction of the new academy, and takes long term planning, especially with regard to the finance. I would be amazed if it wasn't being planned, but equally astonished if it would happen within 2 years. Remember we are ahead of plan on the footballing side...these things can't be thrown up. I would hope that Nicola would be in a position to give us a timescale at the end of the next season.

 

Cortese's been at the club for three seasons now, I think he's probably made plans for this already, like with the academy. Certainly I'd be disappointed if he's been sitting on his hands all season when promotion has always been on the cards.

 

quite an interesting fact 0% of teams finishing below 6th manage to stay up in the premiership the next season. So its not looking good for M'bourough

 

This is probably the most random post i've ever read. Haha.

In all honesty, I agree with Fran. I don't think stadium expansion will be top of the agenda for at least a season. We already attract an audience around mid-table premier league size.

 

Thanks for the stats Schad, I think it is of massive benefit being promoted automatically as it gives you 3/4 weeks more time to prepare for the Premiership. I think that preparation is the key and one reason for our flying start this season; our side were much fitter and practiced than most other sides, plus we were an unknown quantity.

I look at the Premiership at the moment and I think it is a good time to break in as the quality of the division is a little lower than it has been at times making it an easier time to establish yourselves. Of course, as many teams have recently realised keeping players who gel and understand one another has led to promoted teams performing better in the top flight; in the early years promoted teams would often bring in a whole new side before being relegated again and the players recycled once more.

 

Every year we wait is a year's worth of extra ticket sales that we're missing out on.

 

That is a fair comment! I would have thought the majority of our outlay this season will go on players to keep us up, and then maybe in a few seasons think about expansion, once we start seeing some of our youngsters breaking into the first team.