Looking at the league table today, Northampton in third place are only two points ahead of Rotherham in 9th. Does this bunching indicate that fewer points might be required to secure automatic promotion this season? I was thinking around 80-82 points which would require the equivalent of another 9 or 10 wins from the remaining 19 matches.
It is simple mathematics to appreciate that the more there is bunching, the less the number of points for autopromotion. The other factor is the proportion of matches that are drawn by all the clubs which if high again reduces the points needing to be earned .
Take current form and multiply with their remaining games. Look at the top seven places and any head to head remaining games within them and add that to your equation. Then watch current form change!
I was right brb you have clashed heads with our Charlie - or at least your post makes me feel as if I have banged heads with him.
I am thinking this season will be a lower one for automatic promotion with how it looks at the moment, probably 83 points will do.
I always respect the numeracy of bookmakers especially those who are Asian. So I took brb's formula, worked out the points earned per game from the last six matches and then applied that number to the games outstanding. Here is the end of season result for the CURRENT top 7 clubs; 1= Northampton 92 1= Port Vale 92 3 Burton 81 4 Gillingham 77 5 Exeter 76 6 Southend 70 7 Cheltenham 63 This puts a bit of a different slant on tonight's game. Anyone thinking that Gills points in the last 6 games is unrepresentative will find that going back to the last nine games produces an even worse forecast. I have not tried to refine it with home/away games left or difficulty of remaining fixtures but it provides an interesting talking point!
Very interesting exercise that shows just how bad our form has been. It still looks like over 80 points will be enough so another 28 from 19 matches needed (1.47 points per match). Bradford in 10th are averaging 1.48 points per match for the season so far.
Going on the past 10 seasons then 82 should get you promotion. However on current form (last 10 games) Gillingham are heading for 79 points... Playoffs
If we get a proper defensive midfielder, and now that we have Cody we will be OK I think 80 points should do this year, although out of a large following pack there may be one or two teams who have an exceptional run. 139 points will also be acceptable
If we average the same amount of points as we have from all our previous games,which obviously includes our bad home form, we will finish with 90 points, Job done
A recalculation of the league table forecast using a six match rolling average with the same maths as yesterday afternoon but reflecting last night's results produces the following; 1 Port Vale 92 2 Gills 82 3 Northampton 79 4 Exeter 76 5 Burton 72 6 Southend 70 7 Burton 72 Unsurprisingly the forecast is highly sensitive to one team in the top 7 beating another!
And backs up my post just now on the mood swing thread. Our last 10 match form is W4 D3 L3. Average Our last 8 match form is W4 D2 L2. Pretty good. Our last 5 is W3 D1 L1. Very good. You can pretty much prove anything with stats. But our season so far of 55pts from 28 games if carried on would give us around 90 points which will do me.
I think 80 points will be enough for autos. All the teams seem to be beating each other. Gills should get this.
