Looking for a quick return on this but I really think this horse is at least 10-15lbs well in. I say at least because if Paul Nicholls has taught him to jump in the 9 months he's been off the track then potentially more. I'm going to present to you three pieces of form which I hope back up my point. 1. 24/11/2011 That'lldoboy, admittedly in reciept of 14lbs, defeats Zarrafakt by a head. Zarrafakt is raised 7lbs but still goes on to win his next race (albeit with a 10lb claimer on top) by 12L eased down. Zarrafakt is raised another 12lb by the handicapper taking the total raised since running second to That'lldoboy up to 19lbs. (NOTE: Given the trainer perhaps Stick can tell us more as to whether the yard think this one will be doing any more winning.) That'lldoboy's current mark is only 13lbs higher than this day. What's more Daryll Jacob, and not Ruby Walsh, was on board. 2. 26/12/2011 (King George day) That'lldoboy, raised 11lbs for his victory (and subsequent 3/4L 2nd to Night Alliance - who hasn't had a fair crack to boost the form - when jumping badly and giving away 10lbs) goes to Kempton (More details about that Night Alliance 2nd is that the 3rd that day River D'Or's current mark is around 10lbs higher than that day whereas That'lldoboy is currently off of 4lb higher despite the fact he finished ahead of River D'Or). With 3lb claimer Ryan Mahon on top That'lldoboy jumps poorly and is struggling 5 out. He plugs on off the bridle and is ridden to take 3L 2nd when falling two out. Was he getting leader? Let's face it no he wasn't. Did he have the subsequent 2nd held? I think he probably did. 1st that day was Our Mick running off 123 (ie nett giving our lad 1lb.) This horse went off to win off of 132 before running 3L 3rd to For Non Stop on 'Free Friday' at Newbury in the Scilly Isles Group 1 and then running 5L 3rd of 19 to Alfie Sherrin in a Cheltenham handicap off of 144. What I'm trying to say is that on Boxing Day Our Mick was disgustingly well in. 2nd that day was Bless the Wings also with a 3lb claimer on board and giving our boy 2lb. Like I said I think he was held by That'lldoboy despite some atrocious jumping from Nicholls' charge. He won next time out when raised 3lb and with no claimer (nett +6lbs) and now races off of 138, 11lb higher than he was on Boxing Day. That'lldoboy has been raised just 2lb since the same race. 3. 28/1/2012 Our boy's latest performance. Raised 2lbs despite falling on Boxing Day, That'lldoboy is partnered by Ruby Walsh. 5/1f That'lldoboy is upsides and travelling as well as anything when falling 2 out. It's too far from the line this time to say he definitely would have won but look at who did win that day: Bless the Wings! The horse that That'lldoboy looked to have held at Boxing Day when they were even closer in weight. Whilst Bless the Wings went up 8lbs for his impressive victory this day the handicapper has not touched That'lldoboy's mark. Subsequently We then didn't see That'lldoboy for the rest of the season. If Paul Nicholls has got this lad to jump then he is more than 10-15lbs well in. Probably closer to 20lbs. I have no idea if he can now jump, I have no idea if he'll be fully tuned up for his first run of the season but with a pair of entries for Cheltenham this weekend I wonder if Nicholls will be looking for a couple of quick victories before targeting some bigger races.
On reflection it's a massive kick in the nads that this is pricewise. When Bet365 were 14s earlier in the week I thought this horse represented incredible value. But first time out this season with potentially still dodgy jumping means that anyone now looking at this one has to consider whether there is any value left in what is a sizeable field.
F**king pricewise what a c**t 9/2 now, bit short for a horse with suspect jumping and in a 20 runner field. Best of luck if you do back it.
Agreed Jeff, it's just one of those things that can't be helped. I won't be filling up at 9/2 not least because the first run of the season can often throw up a dodgy result. Fingers crossed though, he's definitely very well in.
Back out tomorrow with Ruby on top. 5/2 though. Think Pricewise scuppered this one, the bookies look wary.
RIP THAT'LLDOBOY http://racehorsephotos.photium.com/photo14051067.html Collapsed and died after racing today.
RIP and condolences to connections .................... the tragic side of racing rears its head again
