Quite a taking performance at Deauville today from Jean-Claude Rouget's 3YO filly Justfirstlady. The race was a 7 and a half furlong affair for unraced fillies and Freddie Head's Intello filly Co Pilote was narrowly favourite at 15/8. The strange thing early in the race was that Justfirstlady got a good break but the jockey decided to let her drop back through the field into last place. The horse was keen enough at times but the pilot was keen to let her sit at the rear. They looked to go a modest enough pace and Justfirstlady looked to have plenty on as it turned into a mass sprint for home. What happened next was quite breathtaking as Justfirstlady displayed a remarkable stride refresh rate to rattle past the whole field and she was really flying as she drew away to win by a comfortable three and a half lengths. It is obviously hard to know what she beat there but if she turns out to be nothing special then the other trainers will not have much in the shape of the ones who took the Rouget filly on today. The race replay can be seen here and it's an impressive sight to my eyes anyway. http://www.france-sire.com/actu_lessentiel-17824-deauville_l_impression_de_justfirstlady.php I had not heard much about the jockey and was somewhat surprised to see that this was the pilot of Justfirstlady:- https://www.ouest-france.fr/normand...-pacaut-femme-jockey-vise-les-sommets-6154956 The jockey has a 43% strike rate for Rouget. Maybe a couple of fillies to keep an eye on
Funnily enough I have this theory that the Racing Post ranking team tend to award 80 plus or minus up to five pounds to winners of races for newcomers only in France, regardless of the performance. The leading French 2YO last season Persian King got a similar rating to that despite Fabre indicating that he was the best in the yard from the 2YO crop. Checking the Racing Post site this morning, Justfirstlady RPR 80 Pity picking winners was not so easy.
I read today that Justfirstlady is entered in the French 1000 Guineas and the Prix Diane. No betting for those races yet of course and we'll be lucky to see prices until the day before the races if Bookmakers hold to their usual level of ante-post odds on French racing. I am always puzzled that they have odds for Australian racing and even Indian racing but next to nothing for the French classics and big races. I did have a bet on Persian King for the French Derby though. Paddy Power are going 10/1 on him for that and I felt he was the best 2YO trained in France by a long way last season. I expect O'Brien's second tier colts and perhaps something from the Gosden yard will provide the biggest dangers to Fabre's colt. I think Persian King will stay 10F and the fact that he is the only colt quoted for the race tells its own story about the dearth of contenders at the moment. I don't see many likely lurkers for now and 10/1 is a fair price in this particular set of circumstances. Prix Du Jockey Club (9th June) Persian King 10/1
Translating the text on the page linked to the video of the race, it does state that Justfirstlady comes from a family that has produced pattern winners (strange that there does not seem to be a French translation for ‘black type’), holds entries in the Poule d’Essai and Diane; and she could do little more than win readily in a typically French-run race. Augustin-Normand is one of Rouget’s big owners these days and has a successful stud operation of his own. The bookmakers very rarely bet on the French Group 1 races because the supplementary system means that even after the entries are published, someone could come along and insert their horse a couple of days before the race throwing the betting into disarray. I tend to avoid the French classics until the day of the race as they usually attract large fields, including pacemakers, and the draw can often be significant. If you go and look at the current betting on this year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe you can probably guess which two fillies head the small market given that entries do not close until May so all the three year olds in the betting have simply been extracted from the Oaks/Derby ante-post market.
She looked good, though thought in the other 3 year old race for unraced horses that the 1st & 2nd [Al Aresh & Air Dance] looked smart and it was run in a faster time
I can't say I can recall many late supplements playing havoc with the Classics in France and to some extent that's part of the gamble anyway. I just wish I could get prices early in the day to have a five or ten quid on at a big price. What usually happens with the French Racing is that we get the trials and then Liz Price, the resident French Racing Expert on ATR then gives whatever wins the trials as her horses to follow for the French Classics. Last year she had three colts tipped in the French Guineas, albeit one of them did win to show a point and a half profit on the three Euro stake. If I recall, none of them won again from the five she tipped. It's semi hilarious to see her put up 1/5 Favs and say that they should give a good run for the money. Anyway, the French 2YO's from last season were largely uninspiring, with next to no impact in the top rated youngsters from the year. I certainly wouldn't rule outone of those who didn't race at two winning the French 1000 Guineas and Prix Diane. Persian King was the outstanding colt and much depends on whether he stays at home or goes to Newmarket. With Too Darn Hot being mentioned in comparison to Frankel at 2YO, perhaps Rouget will decide to play on home soil. Pity there is no betting around.
Is this the photo of the two of you together?:- https://funnyjunk.com/funny_pictures/4174080/Run mo run/
You appear to be missing the basic point here: you may want to take a chance but the bookmakers do not. I did not say that late supplements play havoc with the French Classics, I merely stated that I leave it until the day of the race with them because of the huge fields and the significance of the draw and pacemakers; however, I do stand by my opinion that the supplementary system does make the other big Group 1 races bad news for ante post punting – and it is usually the British and the Irish that come along trying to steal the money when they see a race with poor French entries. Most of the French trials are a complete joke. If they had a non-triers rule, the likes of Andre Fabre simply would not run them. Virtually every year there is something amongst the favourites for one of the Poule d’Essai from Fabre’s yard that has been beaten in one of the main trials races and the video shows that the jockey was doing enough to stay on the horse and nothing more. If Too Darn Hot bursts out of the stalls and wins without breaking a sweat on May 4th, then I might believe that he can even be mentioned in the same breath as Frankel. As I pay no notice whatsoever to the TV pundits they can tip 1/5 chances every day of the week. If they are so clever, why have they not cleaned up backing their tips and cleared off to live on a beach in Barbados?
