Though i'd have a quick look at my favorite non Cheltenham festival race, The Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury. Using a few trends over the last 10 years to try and narrow the field. Obviously trends aren't for everyone, but though i'd give it a go. First up age. 9/10 winners aged 8 or under. So out go Away we go Ballabrigs Bundle of fun Calgary bay Carruthers Diamond harry Fruity o'rooney Hold on julio Ikorodu road Junior Lion na bearnai Michel le bon Planet of sound Roberto goldback Tartak The package Tidal bay Weird al Few good ones gone there. Next up 9/10 had won a race 3mile+ before. So out go magnanimity Tatenen First lieutenant Quantitativeeasing The giant bolster Vino griego 9/10 had run at Newbury before(not necessarily winning) we lose Frisco depot Teaforthree Soll Harry the viking That leaves - Burton port, Balthazar king, Duke of lucca, Bobs worth, Alfie spinner, Saint are. 8/10 had won a grade 3 or better. We lose Balthazar king Duke of lucca Alfie spinner Just 3 left now, Bobs worth 7/2, Burton port 20/1 Saint are 16/1. Bobs worth is pretty short in the betting so i will reluctantly pass him over at the moment. He is the obvious danger but i will wait till the day of the race if i back him. Surely can't get much shorter. So my 2 against the field are Burton port and Saint are. This is the first time iv'e used trends so my apologize if there are any mistakes in my work.
Burton Port up fresh is interesting but its a big ask. Bobs Worth was a good winner of the RSA but with no Sir Des Champs, Invictus, Flemenstar, Silviniano Conti in that race, and Grand Crus leaving a huge question mark, one wonders about the strength of his form. I would be inclined to suggest, tentatively may i add, that Harry The Viking may be the dark horse. But a very open race and I am not convinced we have a genuine superstar in there unless its an unexposed horse improving massively and Harry The Viking fits that profile at a price.
Trend betting is a quick step to the poor house. Lacks logic. Each race should be treated on it's merits...if a horse fits a "trend" then embrace that coincidence Phil Smith operates in a different manner than his predecessor re handicapping rendering a lot of historical brac-a-brac irrelevant. GL lemmings..
well thanks for your input dexter. As i said, i was trying out something a bit different to see if i could find any horse's at a price for the race that might run well. I'm not saying trends are the be all and end all. What's your view on the race?
Only kidding Hawkeye. Don't have an opinion as yet and certainly not going to critisise anyone else's opinion...Will wait until final dec's and ground data available. In my top three favourite races of the year...love it's venue,timing,history...perfect.
#ibloodywish BOBS WORTH is a stand out 4-1 with Coral and I think he will win for the system. The yard certainly know how to get one ready for this race and he beat Cue Card here last year. A typically lightly raced Henderson chaser with bags of scope. He has a similar mark to Trabolgan when he won the race, goes well fresh and I think on the day will go off at more like 9/4-5/2. First Lieutenant wont be far away but I dont think he is a certain runner. SOLL is a big outsider at 33-1 for me. Could relly be anything for new connections!
He does look good for the second season 'chaser stat,is on a fair mark and has excellent credentials for the race...certainly won't have the speed for a KG. He is slow.
Do you think Bobs worth will perform if it's soft ground? I live local and it's rained alot recently. Haven't checked next weeks forecast but soft or even heavy must be a possibility. I think he will definitely run no matter what it is as there is no other race for him till next year really. At least in this country.
I think he'll be better on softer ground...he doesn't have any toe. Agree the Hennessy is his sole early season objective...he won't be running in Ireland over the festive period simce the opposition will be too strong and Henderson doesn't travel his horses much,especially at this time of year. Cheltenham at the end of Jan and then the CGC where he will finish a staying on third or fourth...
Cue Card gave him 7lbs as well that day lest we forget (though I appreciate he may have come on for a wind op since then)
cheers chaninbar. was favorite though so wasn't that hard to see that he had a good profile for the race. will attempt this method for a few other big races.
true. what do you make of his gold cup aspirations stick? he must be the most admirable horse in training.
