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Hairy's & Merlino's Football Form Algorithm (Patent Pending)

Discussion in 'Sunderland' started by Hairyhaggis, Sep 24, 2012.

  1. Hairyhaggis

    Hairyhaggis Well-Known Member

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    Myself and my mate are currently running this table for the EPL and the Serie A (he is a Palermo fan), using a set of rules for a teams performance throughout the year. Now, this is as scientific as it gets, and there will be no need for disagreement as the maths needed to understand this requires a PhD and an Asian level understanding of the universe. So just take my word on it <cool>

    I'm bringing this up as there has been alot of disagreement on how we have been doing lately. Are we ****? Are we decent but have played alot of away games? Well, this should help settle that.

    The rules are this. You are expected to win at home. You are expected to lose away games. These two will balance each other out at the end of the year. Anything you get away from home determines how better you go, and anything other than a win at home means you are going to struggle. This is basic. 38 games played over the season, 19 of them at home. So at the end of the year, all home wins, that's 57 points. A very respectable score. Of course this doesn't happen. Here are the rules we're using. Zero cumulative points means you are doing ok. Negative means you are struggling, and positive means you are doing well.

    Home win = 0 points
    Away loss = 0 points
    Home draw = -2 points
    Away draw = +1 points
    Home loss = -3 points
    Away win = +3 points.

    As you are expected to win at home, anything other is a points deduction. If you get an away draw, you get a point, just like in the table. A draw at home means you lose 2 points on the table, so same goes here. A win away is +3 points, as you have done what's not expected, and a loss at home is bad, so that's -3.

    Now pluggin that all into a carefully created Excel spreadsheet, it all shows something interesting. Yes, Liverpool are the worst performing team in the league. Fact (Asians even agree with this, so dont even bother arguing) . But we are +1 point. So technically, we aren't doing that badly. Mind you, we are a game down, so that can change it for the worse if we lose against Reading at home.

    Attached is the table.

    As we have played alot of away games, we get a point for each draw. The draw at home to Liverpool took us down 2 points, so we're doing respectably at 1 point. Liverpool at -7 points though... they're in trouble. The table layout is as follows: the top half is the round along with the teams points from the info above. The bottom half is divided in two. The left is the form table. The Hairyhaggis table. It shows the teams who are doing good, average and ****e. The table on the right is the actual EPL table.

    Anyways, this is just for ****s and giggles. Me and my mate are doing it to see if at the end of the season, the table shows us something interesting, and if it's on par with how we think teams have done.
     

    Attached Files:

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  2. Sidthemackem

    Sidthemackem Newcastle United 0-1 Cambridge United
    Staff Member

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    Cool idea, chaps. But do you a shorter-term version as a form guide? A team could lose the first ten games and be bottom, but win the next ten and be respectable overall. They'd be red-hot going into game 21 though.
     
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