Here's the latest after 10 games. Points per game = 1.3; survival PPG target = 1.05 Click to enlarge With 13 points from 10 games, an average of a point a game from now on should see us safe.
Not being pedantic, but how can anyone be sure that 40 points is guaranteed to achieve safety? Surely there are week to week factors which mean there's no set target figure?
i realise that 40 points is always the benchmark for fans and managers during a 38 game season, but looking at the table this year, can anyone see more than three teams getting less than that cos i certainly can! i reckon 36 will possibly be enough. will wigan get a run of results together? i've not been impressed with bolton at all. blackburn, despite outplaying us this weekend STILL couldn't beat us! lots of teams are weak at the moment and i'd probably have to include ourselves in that statement - i mean weak for the top division. obviously teams will take points off each other, therefore teams will gain points but wigan are on 5 points at the moment - they gained all 5 from the promoted clubs! i can't see them getting anywhere near 40 and i'm still not convinced we will - i reckon 38 or 39 but it could still be enough
I can see a shock away win at Villa to keep the wolf from the door, before Arsenal at home.... We have yet to be spanked so we go into every game with confidence... Another away win is vital
After ten games is always a good time to assess the table as the majority of the time the league placings won't change drastically. One team might string some results together and one might have a bad spell and drop off but usually the table after ten games isn't far off from the final table. The League One campaign saw us be the ones who charged up the table and Colchester drop off, but the rest of the top six didn't change much. Last season, the only change from the top six after ten games was swapping Reading for Leeds. So, this season, I can see Newcastle tailing off a little and finishing maybe eighth or ninth instead of fourth but at the moment I can't really see any of the teams near the bottom (Wigan, Bolton, Blackburn, Everton, Fulham, Wolves) stringing together a sequence of good results. We will inevitably have a bad spell, but we already have seven over Blackburn and Bolton and eight over Wigan. That means even if we lose three on the bounce one of those has to win three to get above us and so far this season they've won four between them. I'm tempted to agree with Super and say we'll need about 35/36 to stay up, but the quicker we hit that magic 40 the better.
Stats,I love 'em. Since the inception of The Premiership it's taken between 34 and 42 points to survive,so 38 is a fair mean.Looking at this seasons crop I can see two out of the bottom eight not reaching that figure.So we need to look at the third worst side.It's a fair bet that number three will come from the bottom half of the table as it is now,so someone from here on in is going to fail to take a point a game. Of course it could be us but week after week the bookies make us less likely favourites for the drop.I think if we can maintain three points above games played for another ten games then we have done it.That would require 16 points from the last 18 games of the season.For me it's Wigan,Wolves + 1.
To be fair I'd be inclined to say our defence is actually better than Arsenal's it's just van Persie is a phenomenal goalscorer and ably supported by 2 top wingers plus a not too shabby midfield.
i think i was a bit harsh on us before - i do believe we will get 40 points deep down, probably slightly more because i can see us picking up 3 or 4 away wins. we probably won't lose that often at home - maybe 6, 7 or even 8 (which sounds a lot but in context of the league isn't that bad, so long as we win about 7, 8 or 9 and a few draws) but mainly to the top sides - games all the others down the bottom will lose too.
I LOVE pedants! Agreed, 40 points is not 100% guaranteed to be the required tally, but historically it's a pretty reliable benchmark. Superman/Dazz, someone did an analysis of this, where I can't now remember but I do recall posting on the subject earlier. The conclusion was that the points score for safety varies with the competitiveness or uncompetitiveness of the league. I.E. in a year when there are a number of teams manifestly weaker than the rest, the points score needed for safety will be lower; when it's a year when people are saying "anyone can beat anyone in this league", the points tally for safety will be higher. This is complicated by the fact that there are 6 or so PL teams with the resources to form a mini league at the top, but the principle remains the same among the rest. 40 points is towards the higher end of the range needed, though it might be even higher; you are saying there are teams manifestly weaker than the rest so the tally will be lower. The main point is that "weak" has to mean "relative to the others in the league (excluding the top 6)".
So, putting my pedantic head on one side (well, it is Halloween) what you're saying is that with a quarter of the season gone, we've amassed a third of the points likely to be required for survival That, sir, will do me nicely
And me. Only thing that does worry me a bit is whether we have the depth of squad to keep it going 'til we reach the magic number. Everybody was pointing out on Saturday that Lambert named an unchanged starting eleven for the sixth game in a row. There's a lot to be said for that, but can the players survive the physical and mental strain of this league week in week out? Like others, I think we will see a bit of strengthening in January -- I'd guess the names are already in McNally's little black book!
Agreed. If we do not take in another 2 or 3 in the January there is a very good chance of all the hard work being done up to that point being undone in the last 4 months of the season. I am certain everyone who needs to be making those decisions is well aware of what needs doing come the opening of the transfer window
40, 35, 35, 36, 38, 38, 34, 39,44, 40, 42, 36, 41, 40, 41, 38, are the points totals for 17th since the league went to 20 teams. This gives an average points total of 38.56. However, if you add a point to the team who finished in 18th except in the cases of teams going down on goal difference, the points tallies are: 38, 41, 40, 37, 34, 35, 37, 43, 34, 34, 35, 38, 36, 35, 31, 40. This gives an average points total of 36.75. Interestingly, if you split it into the most recent 8 years the averages are: 36.875 for 17th and just 35.375 for just above 18th. There definitely seems to be a trend for the bottom of the table getting worse. So what can we surmise: basically that we can't tell but that it is likely that the survival target will be somewhere in the high thirties. Or that statistics are often a load of old guff and we just need to win as many games as we can
..........................Rudd................... ............... De Laet.....Whitbread.............Ayala.......... Drury ....................Smith.....Crofts......... ...Surman...............................Lappin..... .........Vaughan...................Martin................. I like Mourinho's theory that you need two players for every position for exactly the reasons you have given. We have that (if we play two strikers), plus Jackson and Ward (and wlibraham) who don't even make my second xi. I don't think our reserve players are too bad- in fact De Laet; Crofts; Surman and Vaughan would have been in my prefered starting XI at start of the season and its primarily injury or the quality of the performances of the player ahead of them that is keeping them out.
Before the season got under way, I was one of those who thought we certainly did have enough strength in depth, so you are right to remind us what we have in reserve. Wouldn't like to lose both Bennett and Pilkington to injury though; and I do wonder now about Drury, great though he has been for us throughout his career. I wonder if Russell Martin can play LB!
Nothing wrong with stats Kent, it's how people interpret them! Doctor: "The chance of this operation proving fatal is slight, I mean 1 in 200, just 0.5%" Patient: "God Doc, if I was offered those odds to win the lottery I'd think it was almost a cert"
