One of the major stats/ factors and rulings out in the national is how much weight the horse is carrying over the gruelling national distance however the question I am asking is , is this now not so much of an important factor and if so why not? Is this something to do with the fences being toned down or is the case more classier horses are running in the race and class can over come the weight. In the last 6 years 4 horses have carried 11st or over to win - Many Clouds (apart from Red Rum) has carried the most weight when winning @ 11stb 9lbs - Neptune Collognes carried 11st 6lbs (who himself is 4th heaviest weight carrier) This year the market is head by Many Clouds carrying top weight but out of the top 10 in the market 5/10 are carrying over 11st (the top 4 in the weights in that market of 10) Surely Don Poli (who will win this years gold cup won't run) so if he runs Silviniaco Conti is again the classiest horse in the race who himself is carrying 11st 8lbs and on form (putting the national to one side) I would have him over Many Clouds any day! I know horses either get the national fences / distance or not but Conti's class can see him over come this but is weight becoming not so much of a thing that we look out for when there king George , Hennessy and Gold Cup winners in the field
The National is different to any other handicap mate in as much as the handicapper frames the weights specifically for this race factoring in course form. Some horses will carry more weight than their park fence rating would usually dictate. Good example Many Clouds. Some horses will be given the carrot of carrying less weight than their rating would usually dictate. Good example, Long Run. The race has changed in complexion and the stats will change dramatically over the next ten years. Silviniaco Conti has never really got the Gold Cup trip so he must be very doubtful to get the National trip.
This got me looking at the average pace of the Grand National versus Cheltenham Gold Cup, the results of the last 10 below. Those shaded pink are the ones on officially good ground but there is no discernible trend - The Nationals of Neptune Collonges, Ballabriggs and Don't Push It compare well with the Gold Cups of Lord Windermere and Imperial Commander but are slower than those of Synchronised and Long Run (note I have stated the going after the winner's name). Probably just shows that I enjoy maths
Can't believe that the pace of the GN, in some cases, is faster than the Gold Cup. What does that tell us? Prior to reading that Oddy, I was about to say that any horse can stay the Gold Cup distance; it's the time it takes them that makes them not good enough to win it. Using that scientific logic, I was going to say that just because they can't get from A to B fast enough in the GC doesn't mean they can't get from A to B fast enough in the GN. You may have just shattered that theory. Although Crisp was a 2 miler and almost beat Red Rum in the GN, giving him 2 stone
And making spreadsheets oddy!! Very interesting reading - suprised at the time of Synchronised gold cup after all he was stayer not known for his speed! A lot of him reminds me of Don Poli! Hope we have the same result this year!
I think generally the obstacles are easier and we are getting a better class of horse in the race, hence times are slowly coming down. Many Clouds was just the second horse to break 9 minutes (admittedly over the shorter distance, the first being Mr Frisk on very fast ground in 1990) and Red Rum's famous victory over Crisp in 9 mins 1 sec must rate up there as one of the best performances. Would have been hands down the best had Crisp clung on.
Doesn't get anywhere near the credit he deserves. Just think, over today's course he probably would have won and hold the course record.
I think with the obstacles being smaller these days it actually works against the higher class horses at the top of the weights. The reason Red Rum was able to keep winning nationals is because the fences where so tough that it was more a test of jumping than stamina, so no matter what weight he was carrying he jumped the fences better than his rivals did. Nowadays with the fences getting easier they go a lot faster, this makes the race more of a stamina test, and works against the exposed high class horses. Fair enough Many Clouds and Neptune Collonge won off high weights, but you won't get horses winning multiple GN anymore like Red Rum did, as the hike in the weights will always prove to much for a previous winner. Where as back in the old days a rise in the weights wasn't as big an issue.
Ones a flat course and the other isn't. Throw in the weight difference and it's not a surprise that the GN seems comparatively speedy.
