Grand National Trends,

For those of you who like “trends” for the Grand National, here are some interesting statistics:

Age.Ten of the last 13 winners were aged nine or ten.

Weight.Since the War, only five horses have carried more than 11st 5lbs to victory- and Red Rum won two of these.

Stamina.
Entrants must have won over at least 3 miles- Gay Trip (1970) was the last horse who hadn’t.

Class.
Winners are rated higher than 135. In modern times. Only Bobby Jo and Little Polvier won from “out of the handicap.”
Furthermore, poor horses just don’t win the race any more- every winner in the last ten years had won a race of £17000 or more.

Jumping/Experience.
Novices are at a big disadvantage. Every one of the last ten winners had run at least ten times over fences. Also, every winner since Lord Gyllene (1997) had not fallen (including being brought down and unseating rider) more than twice in its whole career prior to winning at Aintree. Only Lord Gyllene and Papillon had never fallen, although five more had only hit the deck once.

Trained for the race/Fitness.
Horses which ran at Cheltenham tend to be disadvantaged, although Bindaree, Don’t Push It, and Silver Birch did compete at The Festival.
An interesting point is that eight of the last ten winners ran over hurdles in the season they triumphed at Aintree.

Recent form.
The last ten winners had all finished in the first four last time out.

Experience of the big Aintree fences.
A factor to bear in mind is that most Grand National winners are competing in the race for the first time. This isn’t a crucial factor but some horses just love the race- and some hate it.
Personally I like this aspect. Bad luck stories and previous fallers don’t tend to produce the winner, although there are odd exceptions.

Trends must always be viewed with caution. This year’s winner may well buck one of the above trends- whichever one that may be. Another “Foinavon” or “ Gay Trip” may well be waiting in the wings!
However, the horses listed below fulfil all of the above trends (excepting having won over hurdles this season) .
*For those of you who think 'running at Cheltenham' is OK this year (because of the longer gap between races), I have included Sunnyhillboy who meets all other trends.

Planet Of Sound
Junior
Chicago Grey
Seabass
West End Rocker
Cappa Bleu
Rare Bob
Sunnyhill Boy
Le Beau Bai
Giles Cross.

If you include the recent “Hurdles statistic,” then only four horses fit the bill...

Junior
Chicago Grey
*Sunnyhill Boy
Le Beau Bai.
(Worth noting that both Le Beau Bai and Junior have never fallen in any race).

 

Hi Tam hope you are well,

I've done my own little trends here, based on the winners since Bindaree. I came up with 4 at the top of mine which were - The Midnight Club, Junior, Organisedconfusion and According to Pete. Can't have According to Pete I don't think but all of the other 3 are live chances in my opinion and will back them all.

 

What were those trends NamNed?

 

Junior for me at the minute so this is re-assuring to read. I do accept what a couple of the lads were saying on another thread that he doesn't look like he'll take to national fences but I think he might still be well in on the ease of his festival victory and has been clearly laid out for this since that win. He had a great Pipe opener and hopefully can go close. If I do stick with him come saturday I think win only is the way to go.

 

Tam - infact they have been revised a little this morning following some of the withdrawals, and Killyglen came up top. I have now backed my 6 for the race (all to small stakes). They are:

Killyglen (largest stake) 14/1
Junior 10/1
According To Pete 33/1
The Midnight Club 25/1
Sunnyhillboy 18/1
Organisedconfusion 20/1

All with Paddy Power.

To be honest Tam I thought instead of relying on others trends I came up with some of my own. I'd be happy to private message you them if you like.

 

Then can you PM them to me Tam?

 

The old weight debate eh ?
Hedgehunter hacked up with 11st and Don't Push It won well (with something in hand) off 11st 5lb so I think both would have won had they carried a few pounds more.
The thing recently is there's regularly been a compressed handicap with around 19-20lb separating all 40 runners (meaning bottom weight carries 10st 8lb or thereabouts.)
This year is different, bottom weight will carry 10st, and I am of the view there will be one or two down the bottom who will be extremely well handicapped and if there is a year to dismiss horses carrying over 11st 5lb for me this is it.

Money for Giles Cross today (10st 1lb), and a couple I like from that end of the handicap who are huge prices that could run well, Midnight Haze (10st) and Quiscover Fontaine (10st 4lb) who meets very few of the trends needed to win this but a Mullins JP combo always catches the eye.
I'm already on Cappa Bleu, Planet of Sound and Deep Purple at fancy prices and for me any of these could possess the class needed to win the race.
Rare Bob is another who may go well, if there's one trainer who knows how to protect a horses handicap mark it's Dessie Hughes - this one looked to have every chance in the John Smiths listed race last year at this meeting only to unseat 2 out in a race that had Great Endeavour, Bensalem and Prince de Beauchene competing (Rare Bob carried 11st 9lb), he gets in the National off 10st 9lb.
Another key trend is a horse that races prominently, steer clear of trouble and avoid the fallers in front....

 

One huge factor this year is that it looks like being a real slog. Out and out stayers who act on soft looks the key.

 

Any suggestions Stick? Havent had a decent return on the national since Earth Summit in 98? Got £20ew on at 25/1 back in the day when prices held till 1015 and the fat oaf that is Mccirrick was telling everyone to get on with Corals! Won at 7's if I remember correctly! Treated the mrs to a drive thru!!!!

 

I did that once. Didn't buy anything; just drove through.

 

If id known what she would later take me for I'd've done the same! Fair play she got every penny she deserved from a silly boy!

 

thanks for the info, i wondered about the weights for this year. previously the race form has suggested weights of 10-7 to 11st plus 3/6lbs but this year i've seen a few i quite like, including giles cross, below the 10-7. i'm guessing because the official ratings have changed the weights as you say, so you can go below the weight a winner/place horse would have had a couple of years ago.

they've also changed the rules about all horses having to have run (won?) over 3m so the stat of writing off horses that haven't no longer exists. i've added a stat on my (mother of all) spreadsheet of form over 26f+ because of this. it used to be solid form over 24f and i'm not sure if since all have to have 24f experience (i forget the exact rule) you have to look for longer distance experience.

also the ground talk has added in a couple that previously i was unsure about because they had mostly run on soft/heavy ground but now may be back in the shortlist. i can't remember the horses because i've just decided to stop for the night. i'l get to the end of my workings out but not tonight (who invented early shifts?).

one horse that the hype bothers me is seabass. average run over 22f? how can it suddenly run over 4m4? although yes it would be great for katie walsh but i have my distance doubts for the horse.

and where's the jockey for chigaco grey? surely it's a runner?

 

Stick I don't think it will be as much of a slog as you think.money has come in for the mud lovers coz of the rain$ we aren't due to have much more and the going imo will be soft with good to soft in places. It will be tough but the mud lovers will lengthe agaon baclk to their true prices. Then is the time to get on you west end rockers etc.. But it won't be a bog like the welsh gn was!

 

wait and see what the ground is, if they get more rain I would agree with Stick, but Aintree can dry quickly and I wouldn't be backing anything that loves cut just yet.

 

The weather forecast for Aintree (as for the rest of the country) for the remainder of the week is ‘unsettled’ which is basically weatherman parlance for ‘we ain’t got a bally clue’.

The National course is currently ‘Soft, Good to Soft’ in places and could ultimately end up being anything from the range Soft – Good given the forecast. The ground is sure to play a huge factor in both the market and the actual race itself but I think its only guesswork to estimate what conditions, at this stage, will be like. Only dear old Mother Nature knows what will happen.

Going back to ‘trends’ The Weekender’s man today has put up Killyglen to get up from Chicago Grey. But its interesting to see most people totally, and I do mean totally, ignoring them as the 2 currently at the head of the market (Synchronised and the West End Rocker) have it all, I say all, against them according to the old trends.

But the most amazing stat that I’ve heard in relation to the GN comes courtesy of ‘The Weekender’ and is truly, truly shocking. In the last 16 years Mr Henderson has had 53 runners over 28 furlongs+ and of these 53 runners just 1, I say 1, was victorious! Hardly inspiring for his Shakalakaboomboom.

 

The trends horse as far as I can see is Sunnyhillboy. Mordin has him clear top on his list and I've seen his name crop up again and again with the trends.

I think he has an outstanding chance if he takes to the place, but, as a small horse, that is a big if. I'd also prefer quicker ground so would like a drying week. However, I'll probably still back him because I think he has a huge chance if . . . .

 

Oh no. Is he small? I remember the last small horse I backed in the National. The fences frightened him but they were more formidable then. How big is he and what are the stats on size? Does he have the scope?

 

He is small but Red Rum was small as well. It's a concern but the price more than makes up for it. I think he'll win if he finds a rhythm and probably won't complete if he doesn't. At 20/1 he's good value.

I'll probably wait and see what the ground does and how it rides the first few days.

 

We had a pony show jumper, only 137cms, and she jumped 1.40cm courses and even a 6 bar challenge culminating in 1.40cms, 1.45cms and 1.50cms. Lots of horses would bottle out. So I guess agility and heart have more to do with it.