I always like to look at the current year's GN with a view to picking one that could do well the next year I find it interesting that 5 of the first 10 home (4 of the first 7) were aged 11 or older. Not sure if the heavy ground had something to do with that. They do tend to carry low weights which might be just as, or more, significant. Some stats on how older horses have fared on different surfaces might be interesting Horses that were going well before being taken out by other horses might be worth a look One problem of course is that this form could have no relevance at all if next year's race is run on a sound surface. Except that if a horse who goes better on a sounder surface did particularly well on Saturday's heavy ground. Or a horse did well but was significantly advantaged by the ground So, on a brief initial examination of this year's runners, this is my provisional reading of the race 1. The winner, Tiger Roll. Difficult to pick holes in this one. He all but lost the race on the line, tiring badly in the last 100 yards. So, one would have to wonder if, on a similar surface next year, with another 9lbs or so on his back, would he last home. On the plus side, he won a G1 Triumph Hurdle on good ground and has won a 4 mile Amateur riders’ race (carrying 11.6) on good to soft. So, on better ground he may possibly have run out an easy winner. He is only a 9yo so he is certainly one who can’t be ruled out. 2. The 2nd, Pleasant Company. Has never run on a sound surface so may have benefited from the surface. Was finishing (relatively) like a train and only just failed. He is bound to be a few pounds better off next year and could reverse the form on similar ground. In last year’s race he stumbled badly on the second surface which probably put paid to his chances, although still managed to finish 9th, 28l behind the winner. Clearly likes Aintree and can’t be ruled out next year, although would have reservations on a sound surface 3. The 3rd, Bless the Wings. What a gallant effort for a 13 yo. He has beaten Tiger Roll by no less than 42l in a cross country but, surely, it’s asking too much for him to figure as a 14yo 4. The 4th, Anabale Fly. Only an 8yo and lumping 11.8. Was badly hampered at the first but ran a great race to finish just 11½l behind the winner on his first attempt over the Aintree fences. If they can keep his handicap down he must have a great chance next year but I feel soft to heavy ground may be essential to give him a chance of finishing in the frame Can’t fancy any of the other finishers for next year so my attention is drawn to the “hard luck” horses. 5. Blaklion. Well fancied but brought down at the first. Was lumping 11.8. Ran well last year (as an 8yo) under 11.1 despite being bumped 2 out and being slightly hampered at the last. Won G1 RSA on good ground and won the Bechers )under 11.6) on heavy ground. Could get in under 11 stone next year as a 10yo and would be in with a big shout 6. Ucello Conti. Was noted travelling strongly until unseated rider 4 out. Fell in the race last year. Could be a lively outsider if given a low weight. Will be 11 next year but that doesn’t seem to be a problem 7. Buywise. I was watching this one closely and was really encouraged by the way he took his fences. I thought he was running a great race and was feeling optimistic about his chances until he was taken right out at the 8th and rider had no chance of staying on. To my mind one of the unluckiest runners in the race. Whether or not he would have fared as well over the remining 20 fences is an unknown. In terms of next year, he will be 12yo so has probably lost his chance. But, given a low weight next year he could be a lively outsider to run into a place 8. Final Nudge, fell Canal Turn when very short of room Short list for next year: Tiger Roll Anabale Fly Blaklion Buywise
I thought Seeyouatmidnight ran a nice race and really only weakened out of it the last half mile. If they can get 5 or 6lbs off his back he could go well on better ground next year. He has relatively low mileage on the clock.
A perhaps not very surprising stat is that only 2 of the finishers carried over 11 stone in the race in Saturday. This was the same outcome as the 2016 race that was run on soft. So if it does come up testing avoid backing any of the horses carrying 11 stone plus. Mind you that doesn't make it any easier to pick the winner... I was gutted when final nudge fell and even more distraught when ucello conti unseated when looking like he could be involved in the finish. What a horse that tiger roll is...
Ucello Conti was the sob story for me. He useated last year, not fall, and he did the same again this year, albeit 6 fences further on. Maybe next year with a large blob of blu-tack on the saddle!
Jesus boys did you see the number of fences he clouted. If you back him again to win at this course you need to see a shrink! Blaklion didnt stay!
I heard all the experts saying he wouldn't stay. I'm not so sure; last year he was only an 8yo and a bump can take a bit out of a horse. Maybe he didn't stay on soft last year but, next year, if the ground is better than soft plus he could have a lower weight to carry plus, at the age of 10, he should be stronger, I think it could be a different story. Definitely on my short list at this stage
As wooly said yesterday, Cross country race at Cheltenham in last few years seems to be the best indicator, winner of that has finished 2nd, 2nd and 1st last 3 years
Just watched the race for the first time after Saturday. How the hell did Total Recall get all the way to the last fence? Townend would have had an easier afternoon at a rodeo - that must be the hardest £170 he's ever earnt. As far as next year goes there may be a few hard luck stories (Buywise getting taken out) but the first 2 finished 45 lengths in front of the 6th horse so I'm not confident there are many who will improve their position in a years time. Tiger Roll would interest me again if it was no worse than good to soft. He was out of his optimum ground on Saturday and still won just (as he did at Cheltenham) so he could potentially overcome a 8-10lb higher mark of his preferred going. Sadly I don't see Pleasant Company going one better next year as he had his ground on Saturday. Whilst Tiger Roll/Davy Russell rightly got all the plaudits, if that race was a yard further Davy would have been absolutely lambasted afterwards. Small margins! Finally what a fine servant Bless the Wings has been for connections. He had a nasty looking incident at the XC in March and you could forgive the ol boy if he thought sod this for a lark on Saturday. He ran an absolute blinder for third.
