Get Yer Money On

Racing too competitive - hundreds of thousands of people placing bets online and on exchanges - wisdom of the crowd say the market prices are correct and you are very unlikely to make money long term on such things unless you manage to bet on a book below 100%.

 

The wisdom of Eddie - if a horse is Even money then the market is saying that it has a 50% chance of winning (actually slightly less than 50% since over-round will be added unless you are betting below 100% book) - so it's slightly more likely that such a fav will lose than win.

The bookie is not always right, the bookie is right on average.

 

I know percentages - there was a slightly less than 50% chance of you winning today and praising yourself for it. We are talking class horses, we are talking about an extremely liquid market where very smart people who train and own these horses have their own quite considerable lumps of money down. If J.P. puts a lump on his own horse at Ascot I'd follow him at the price - whatever someone in the open market with all the public form in front of them thinks is, on average, pretty much irrelevant.

 

The Betfair book bets almost to 100% - Betfair charge around 5% commission on winnings - Betfair post a big pile of data on their site with prices and results to allow you to do historical analysis of your own theories.

If you put £1 on every favourite on Betfair for the last 3 years your total profit almost exactly equals Zero, your total loss would almost exactly equal Zero as well - apart from the fact you are giving Betfair up to 5% of every winner. The price on Betfair, when it's liquid, is on average a true probability.

So the market does get it right on average, it gets it more right in the big meetings as well because a hell of a lot of people put the effort and money in on these meetings.

I know it sounds hugely defeatist for someone who is clearly into their racing - but you have to be really really good at what you do to beat the market on these occasions, and such people who are that good (and there are a few) don't **** about tipping to others when there is so much in it for themselves.