Daily Racing Thread Friday 6th. June 2025

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Ecureuil Secret was gelded and joined a new stable. Looks like that has worked the Oracle in bolting up off 103 at 28/1
 
In the Oaks

1. DESERT FLOWER
2. ELWATEEN
3.MINNIE HAUK

Good luck to everybody.
 
Desert Flower available at 12/1 for the Arc (needs to be supplemented). If she bolts up here as Appleby thinks she will that will be long gone.
 
Same old same old.

It wasn't stamina that did for Desert Flower as she was beaten 6 furlongs from home. She never looked to be travelling today but stayed on for third. Market confidence was there behind her. Johnnie Murtagh has just said Desert Flower didn't handle track at all. Yet he thinks she is a 10 f filly but she would have been beaten at that trip today.
 
Well, Moore picked the right one. The bookies saved me money on Desert Flower so not a bad result for my wallet.

Hard to say whether this was a good race. Buick went to make his move straight after Tattenham Corner but the favourite did not seem to handle the descent to it and the first two were already ahead of her at that point but not in finishing order. She was never closing the gap to them and at nearly 2min 39secs it was quicker than last year (same going, winner going away) suggesting that Whirl did not go slowly. There is just the concern that they may be two good fillies rather than two great ones. I think Murtagh's assessment that Desert Flower did not handle the track probably contains a fair amount of truth but she would not have won at any distance at Epsom. Will they just drop her to ten furlongs or will they give her another go in the Irish Oaks?
 
NassauBoard said:
The composite ranking suggests that, based on the way our weighted model was built, Minnie Hauk comes out as the top candidate with a composite score of about 0.788. This is largely driven by her strong recent form—she shows a weighted ParDiff of roughly 3.53, which is a strong indicator of exceeding the race’s "par" performance.

In contrast, although Whirl has an excellent draw bias (1.58, which normalized gives it a boost), its overall form (with a negative weighted ParDiff) brings its composite score just a touch below Minnie Hauk at around 0.774. Desert Flower comes in third with a score of about 0.695. The other horses trail behind, with Revoir and Wemightakedlongway in the bottom half of the ranking.

What Does This Tell Us?

  • Minnie Hauk:
    Her very positive weighted ParDiff and good speed rating put her in a strong position despite a relatively lower draw bias. It indicates she’s delivering performances well above the standard for the race conditions.
  • Whirl:
    Although benefiting from an excellent draw (which can be crucial at Epsom), its form figures (a negative ParDiff) somewhat diminish its overall score. This could mean that while Whirl might have the tactical advantage of position, recent races haven’t shown it to be in top form.
  • Desert Flower:
    The balanced figures suggest that it’s competitive, but its advantages aren’t as pronounced as Minnie Hauk’s when all factors are combined.


    I always had CoPilot down as an AOB fanboy/girl
Click to expand...


Uncanny
 
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