More rain might eliminate me from any betting interest in this year’s Epsom meeting; however, it is a meeting that I usually have little to do with anyway as the vagaries of the course suit so few and the market on the Classics has usually already been destroyed by the ante post domination of two operations.
Last year’s winner Persica returns for the Diomed Stakes (2.40) and makes little appeal as a betting proposition with Boiling Point and Seagulls Eleven both advertising their claims with last time out Listed victories.
In The Oaks, course winner On Message looks likely to start the outsider although we know that she handles the track. That was only a handicap and she was a close third at Goodwood, staying on in the Height Of Fashion, so this Camelot filly ought to give a good account although she needs to improve plenty and her only encounter with easy ground was her worst performance. Aidan O’Brien has had some results with outsiders here and Sugar Island has won twice on easy ground. She easily beat Thundering On (second) and Cameo (fourth) on heavy ground at The Curragh but given that she was pacemaker in the Cheshire Oaks (finished fourth), I think she might be seen up front early today. Venetian Lace was well beaten on her only encounter with easy ground (Sugar Island ahead); however, she was second in the Fillies’ Mile and third in the 1000 Guineas and her pedigree gives her a chance stepping up half a mile taking a traditional Classic route here. K Sarra has yet to encounter easy ground and skipped the 1000 Guineas after running down the field in the Fred Darling. Whilst she was not beaten far in the Musidora, there is no obvious reason why she should reverse running with the winner over the extra two furlongs. After being beaten on her return at The Curragh, Cameo won the Lingfield Oaks Trial but it is difficult to tell whether that was good enough form to beat the principals at this level. Thundering On was beaten in a photo on her penultimate start but then lost her maiden tag winning a Group 3 on easy ground with something to spare, so she could be much better than her bare form. A La Prochaine is the least experienced runner, finishing third in the Cheshire Oaks on only her second start after running green. That was won by a much more experience rival, Amelia Earhart, and it seems that connections are going to employ the same tactics as that day with Sugar Island making the running. Although LEGACY LINK was behind runner-up Venetian Lace in the Fillies’ Mile, she won the Musidora going away and is my pick with the caveat that she handles the track as both her career defeats to date have been at HQ, although she was looked after on career debut when she had no chance.
I note that this morning at least one of the layers has Amelia Earhart and Legacy Link as joint favourites, the Ballydoyle filly on the drift as the Gosden filly shortens.
