Just the six face the starter in the Coronation Stakes and there look to be more negatives than positives. High Definition has simply not lived up to the billing and he has failed to win in three starts over ten furlongs, the best of which was last time when held by Alenquer in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. Hukum is yet to win at this level and when last seen in a Meydan Group 1 was behind Alenquer and Pyledriver. Living Legend has won his last three against small fields, last time collecting the Jockey Club Stakes but Mark Johnston’s six year old needs to find a few more pounds unless he is allowed a soft lead and steals the race, which seems unlikely. Manobo has won five of his six starts but his last three races have been over further than this and he was second in the Dubai Gold Cup over two miles last time. I hope Palavecino’s owners enjoy their day out but their horse has no realistic chance on the basis of winning a four runner Lingfield handicap but will pick up £6,007 for sixth.
That leaves last year’s winner Pyledriver, with Frankie aboard this year, to complete the double. He does not have to lead but will want to be at the front end and this is no tougher than last year’s renewal. The form of his fourth in the Dubai Sheema Classic gives him the beating of High Definition and Hukum. As Rudey pointed out, the yard has only had 4 winners this year from 45 runners (13/2, 18/1, 16/1, 15/2), so do I want to take the short price? No.
Whilst the field for the Cazoo Handicap (3:45) is numerically good, predictably the bookies are taking no chances on William Knight’s Moktasaab, unbeaten for his new yard and raised just 5lb for an easy win at Goodwood last time. Harry Redknapp is likely to be enjoying his day on the Epsom Downs with good prospects of a visit to the winner’s circle.
Every year before the Epsom Classics, somebody traipses out the old “this is not a very good race” nonsense and frequently ends up eating their words afterwards. On known form and ratings going into this year’s Oaks this does not look like a Group 1 with the favourite top rated on just 110. Emily Upjohn won the Musidora very easily (as you might expect for a 4/7 shot) and there is no reason to believe that fourth The Algarve can reverse that over two furlongs further. Her short odds today seem to reflect where she lives as much as form as several of the others have shown similar potential.
Kawida has taken a curious route here, having run a close third in the Prix Cleopatre to a subsequent Group 1 runner up. Moon De Vega’s fourth in the Cheshire Oaks gives her too much to do with the winner Thoughts Of June very likely the pace angle today under Wayne Lordan. Rogue Millennium won the Lingfield Oaks Trial and connections have paid to let Tom Clover’s filly take her chance but her lack of experience (two races) may be her undoing. Joseph O’Brien’s Tranquil Lady won the Blue Wind very easily last time, has Tom Marquand booked today and should relish the step up in trip and will defy her odds for each way punters.
Is there another Classic winner for Frankel in the field? Thrice raced Nashwa should give Hollie Doyle a good run but will she progress more than her favoured stablemate? Frankel’s other chance, With The Moonlight, comes from the hot Appleby yard and won the Pretty Polly at HQ with plenty to spare and would be more my idea of a Frankel winner.
The other two Aidan O’Brien runners both contested the Irish 1000 Guineas last time. Minding’s sister Tuesday was a well beaten second, half a length ahead of Concert Hall. Ryan Moore is on Tuesday, who has done nothing much wrong in her four starts but only has a Naas maiden to her name so she needs to find plenty to emulate her sister. Last year’s winner Snowfall had run eight times before lining up at Epsom and here we have CONCERT HALL, a veteran of eight races and daughter of an Oaks winner, stepping up to twelve furlongs for the first time. She beat subsequent Blue Wind winner Tranquil Lady when winning the Salsabil at Navan over ten furlongs and I expect Seamie Heffernan to make plenty of use of her – he won on the dam in 2012.
Also, ITV clearly showed that O'Brien personally attended the saddling of Tuesday, and even gave its hind quarters a good brushing too. No doubt that the trainer fancied the eventual winner a lot!