Friday 3rd August Racing Thread

Bangor
2.45 Dorset Naga 6/1 each way confident
4.30 Changing The Guard 13/2 win confident
5.00 Marie Des Anges no price yet
6.05 Keltic Cross 3/1

A rare lucky 15 as well

 

Got to echo what Quel and Stick have said about Dorset Naga. Massive eye catcher on handicap/chase debut off a mark of 105 stepped up in trip. Honeyball in blistering form. Although I've missed the 6s, 4/1 still looks a belting price.

 

Bloody hell. All three of us agree on this one. I can feel a forum gamble coming on...

 

I better get on quick then before it goes odds on....

 

OOOOh risky unless your on the inside...I wouldnt be wanting Dorset Naga- its all a bit circumstantial with no proven form over fences i'll dodge that one....although if youve got 6s thats too big and agree a place realistic...more of a 7/2 chance.

For me the Hobbs horse Rob Conti should improve and may prove the best of a fairly weak race..

Good Luck anyway

 

Dorset Naga's a really big horse that's made for fences. 106 is a great mark and they'll take advantage. If it's not tomorrow (which I think it will but have gone each way because of Hobb's excellent record at Bangor) then it'll be the next day but it will win over fences off this mark.

 

i hope it wins for you guys. GL

 

Evening all, had a fantastic day at Goodwood today. Had a healthy lump sum on Saddlers Rock but apart from that, was my only winner Selections for tomorrow:

14.00 - Gatewood - 9/4 (NAP)

Have backed him every run this season and is 3/3 this season too. This is another step up in class and in distance for this talented colt- who is taking every progress in his stride. Beating Black Spirit by a head LTO at ascot. The transcaction of Handicap to group company will be no problem and with Jockey and Stable still firing out the winners I will be lumping on him tomorrow.

14.35 Trumpet Major- 13/2

Imo this is a very big price for this years 2000 Guineas 4th. He was not far beaten in the race too. And although he completely went a miss in the Irish 2000 Guineas. HE has had 69 days off and he goes well fresh . He won the craven stakes last year with a long lay off of over 100 days and if running to the same form he will close

 

Other selections-

15.10- CAPTAIN BERTIE- 10/1 E/W

15.45- ORTENSIA- 7/1 & small ew - ELUSIVITY

16.50- GAMILATI- 6/4

 

I for one hopes he (dorset nagga) wins but i dont think he will just yet.We will be watching with great excitment! Fantastic name though eh!!

Good luck to you all

 

FFS why didn't anyone tell me Peter Chapple Hyam was on twitter. Had a go the other day saying he was a shocking trainer and I will never back another of his . Thing is I actually like him was just fuming Maxtenius ran bad.

 

2.00 Goodwood: DUBAI PRINCE 5/1 A very fair price for a very interesting runner. The worry is that he might bounce, especially when we examine his Champion Stakes run. However that was too bad to be true and frankly on every other occasion he has looked nothing short of top class and has all the ability to win this race. I personally think he will stay and he has a turn of foot to see these off.

2.35 Goodwood: TALES OF GRIMM 10/1 (NB) Surely Ryan Moore and Sir Michael Stoute cannot stay quiet for much longer and this horse for me personally has been a real eyecatcher on his two starts this season. Ran on strongly at Sandown on reappearance behind COGITO (Stipulate 2nd) and looked the one to take from the race. Didn't quite get home at Ascot on tricky ground and I wonder if a stiff mile on good ground here at Goodwood might be the launchpad for his season. Very talented and very game.

3.45 Goodwood: SPIRIT QUARTZ 10/1 (NAP) This is a horse who has been knocking on the door in all sorts of company including a belter in a Group1 at Ascot. Looks idea for Goodwood in the sense that it can hold a position, sticks on really well, and has Frankie to get it in the right place at the right moment. Really interesting each-way chance for Bob Cowell.


Gamilati looks interesting on reappearance but is more of a watching brief at the prices and the value might be Regal Realm 8/1 who beat her on debut and was a very impressive winner after a troubled passage over course and distance last year. Cheekpieces are on but Ryan Moore is booked and he and Noseda do combine well.

 

5.50 Newmarket

Hurricane Lady 14/1 NAP

Although trainer Mike Murphy has a shorter priced runner in the field in the shape of Chapter and Verse who also looks well treated at present I think Hurricane Lady will excel now back on better ground and I expect a very bold showing as she looks well treated on her form for last year. Formerly with the now retired Walter Swinburn, this 4 year old joined her current trainer last September after having a very progressive 3 year old campaign. She's had 3 starts for her current yard this year and all three came on soft or heavy ground which I definitely don't think she enjoyed and although her 2nd last effort was promising when a 6L 3rd on soft ground at Sandown behind the progressive Spa's Dancer off a mark of 78 she hasn't really been at her best this year. However, I think we'll see a different horse now she is back on a sounder surface.

After 3 solid efforts in maidens as a 2 year old, Hurricane Lady made her handicap debut off a mark of 66 when finishing a head 2nd. After this she finished a not too far away 7th off a mark of 68 before shedding her maiden tag off the same mark on her 6th attempt at Chepstow. In ground that was either good or good to soft (was raining heavily during the race), Hurricane Lady sat close enough to the pace before settling towards the rear. She came with an effort down the outside but was badly bumped at the 2f pole which appeared to throw her off kilter completely. However, she still had the class to win well by 1L. The form of that race is pretty strong with the 2nd, 3rd and 5th winning off the same or higher marks within a couple of starts. Raised to a mark of 72, it didn't take long for her to win again as she was successful on her next start on good to firm ground at Leicester last June in a Class 5 handicap. Under Kieran Fallon, Hurricane Lady was sent to the front from the off as she showed an extremely likeable attitude as she just kept finding and finding to score by half a length. She repelled every challenger in tenacious fashion which is an attribute I really like to see in horses and she always looked as if she had a little bit up her sleeve. The form of that race looks fine with the 2nd racking up a number of placed efforts including off a 7lb higher mark whilst the 4th was a narrowly beaten 2nd on his next start upped in class off the same mark.

Hurricane Lady's 3rd last start as a 3 year old came at Leicester again on good to firm ground in a Class 4 handicap last July at Windsor off a mark of 75. After being a step slow leaving the gate, she was short of room and had to be restrained at the rear of the field in what turned out to be a strangely run race. The early speed was very quick until about 5f out when it was slowed right down before it quickened up again. Hurricane Lady had to switch 3 wide under Eddie Ahearn and looked as if she would forge clear with about 1f to go but I think Ahearn got a bit complacent as she ended up going down by about half a length. Nevertheless, the form of that race looks finewith the winner Totheendoftheearth finishing a 0.5L beaten 2nd off a 5lb higher mark upped in Class on his next start. Her 2nd last start for Swinburn came over tomorrows C+D off a mark of 77 when going down a head in the Class 4 handicap to demonstrate her very consistent and progressive profile. Although she had no excuses, it was a gallant effort in defeat. The form of that race is moderate (winner not reappeared) but it was another step forward in her early career. Her final start for Swinburn seemed as if something was wrong and I'm discounting that.

Her 3 starts this year on unsuitable ground haven't been great but she is now back down to a mark of 74 and looks well handicapped on her efforts last year. Furthermore, she definitely looked as if a mark of 77 wasn't her ceiling and I definitely think she hasn't finished her improvement either. I think its significant that she's returning to a course and distance where she's proven to go well at for her first start on suitable ground for Mike Murphy and I am expecting a big showing. It will be interesting to see what tactics she adopts as she has proven to be tactically versatile in her career to date. Nicky MacKay is an interesting jockey booking as he takes his first ride for the stable and I'm encouraged by his booking. With trainer Mike Murphy in good form, I can see both his horses going well tomorrow with both on workable marks but I'm hoping Hurricane Lady will be the one who finds the winners enclosure as she gets her career back on track.

I'm doing the RFC with her and Chapter and Verse as well.

 

7.30 Newmarket

Ezdeyaad 12/1

With Ed Walker explaining his poor performance on his last start was due to a foot abscess, I think Ezdeyaad looks very overpriced especially when you factor in that he finished 1.5L in front of tomorrow's favourite Emkanaat two starts back and the pair meet on the same terms as they did that day. After being campaigned in claimers towards the back end of last season after seemingly losing his way, he looked a resurgent force on the basis of his 2nd last run. On the basis on some of his efforts last year, he looks very well handicapped and given his last turf win came off a 5lb higher mark last May. After a very progressive season in 2010 which saw him win 4 races from 5 starts, his handicap mark rocketed from a mark of 79 to 94 and in his peak he was a really talented animal. After the large hike in the weights, the handicapper seemed to have Ezdeyaad's number as his last 4 starts of the 2010 season were poor as he was probably handicapped to the hilt. However after a break he seemed to bounce back to form in 2011.

After making a reappearance run, Ezdeyaad ran a cracking 0.75L beaten 4th at Lingfield over 1m in a Class 3 handicap off a mark of 88 last February. That day he hit the front with about 1.5f to go and he was swamped very late on by a bunch of fast finishers and he was eventually run out of the money. The form of that race is quite strong with the winner finishing a narrowly beaten 2nd in a Listed contest on his next start. In the context of this race, it was an excellent effort and makes todays handicap mark of 80 extremely manageable. After a couple of poor starts on turf, he ran a good race to be a 3L beaten 6th in a hot handicap over tomorrows C+D and showed he was still in good order when landing a 7f event at Folkestone last May off a mark of 85. After occupying his traditional sit behind the leaders, Ezdeyaad had to be pushed along for the final couple of furlongs and he just about got up on the line under Jack Mitchell to win by a head. The form of that race is solid with the 3rd putting in a very good 0.5L beaten 2nd on his next start and it showed Ezdeyaad's battling quality. Ezdeyaad had 5 more starts after this win last year with the last 3 in claimers and I think a busy campaign may have caught up with him towards the end of the season. However, his handicap fell as a result of that and after a reappearance run in April this gelding ran an excellent race 2 starts back.

Ezdeyaad ran an excellent 0.75L beaten 3rd at the Kempton over 7f off a mark of 77 and it definitely showed he has a lot of ability and verve for racing left in him. After sitting in behind the leaders, Ezdeyaad came there absolutely cantering all over the leaders and the button was pushed just over a furlong out as he hit the front. However, he didn't really pick up in the manner I expected him to as two rivals passed him but it certainly was a very good effort. The form of that race is ok with tomorrows favourite Emkanaat wining subsequently and a few other solid efforts were posted by other horses in the race.

Although disappointing on his last start due to the foot abscess, after analysing a lot of his previous races I really thought this 8 year old was going to come on a lot for that run. Ezdeyaad isn't the sort of horse you'd associate as a strong traveller and he certainly picks up well when driven as demonstrated by his last success.He is still very well handicapped judged on his win off 85 and his effort at Lingfield off a mark of 88 and his mark of 80 definitely looks workable. Ed Walker has commented that this gelding isn't the easiest to train and he certainly isn't one to commit heavily with. I think he's probably a better animal on the turf and he's been kept to the AW due to the rain as of late but he gets his desired quick ground tomorrow and I think he'll relish a return to the grass. Walkers go to jockey William Buick is an eye catching booking as the pair were 5-5 until yesterday where Walker's two runners were a bit unlucky but its clear Buick is booked when a big run is expected. Its a very interesting race with Mr David on a good mark and Monzino returning to the turf (I think he'll put in a good performance tomorrow) but with Walkers horses running so well of late I just think Ezdeyaad is too big at 12/1 and I've had a small bet e/w in the hopes he can land this Class 4 handicap.

 

Other selections tomorrow

2.55 Thirsk

Dhhamaan 8/1 NB

This twice C+D winner showed he was on the way back with a very good 3L beaten 3rd at Ayr on his last start on unsuitable soft ground in which the form of that race has been boosted by the two horses who have raced again. Chosen Character has come out and winning again under a 6lb penalty and the 6th finishing a 0.75L beaten 2nd off the same mark. He should be much more at home on tomorrows quicker surface and given that this front runner is now 8lb below when scoring over this C+D just over a year ago under this jockey then he should be very difficult to beat. 8s looks a very big price

3.45 Goodwood

Ortensia 7/1

Really liked the way he won over in Meydan and his two starts in England have been unsuitable ground. Should relish the quicker conditions now eased in grade. The class horse in the field in my eyes and definitely the one to beat. 7/1 looks a very good e/w price.

 

ooops

 

I'm with TopClass on Tales of Grimm. It's not only Moore/Stoute who needs a better week. But this one has been getting favourable gallops mentions.

 

Lucky E/W 31 and E/W Accy

2.35 Stipulate 8/1 NAP

3.10 Swiftly Done 12/1

3.45 Ortensia 7/1

4.50 Gracia Directa 8/1

5.25 Jwala 9/1

Hoping for better luck today as Goodwood hasn't exactly been glorious to me this week

 

Four for me today so you can all go rushing off to Betfair with your laying boots on..............

2-35 Trumpet Major
3-10 Fulbright
4-50 Bircham
5-25 Lady Gibraltar

Good luck everyone

 

Goodwood, 2.35, Aljamaheer is an improving animal who can take a step forward from his 3rd in the Jersey Stakes at RA.