Daily Racing Thread Friday 14th. Dec. 2018

Friday's Meetings

Bangor-on-Dee
N/H 7 Races 11:50-3:20p.m.
Doncaster
N/H 7 Races 12:30-3:30p.m.
Cheltenham
N/H 7 Races 12:10-3:40p.m.
Kempton(E)
A/W 8 Races 5:15-8:45p.m.
Dundalk(E)
A/W 8 Races 5:30-9:00p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

Well, Cheltenham comes round again and in the opener tricks and trails is way over priced for me.tailed. Of last over 2m5 last time in a pretty hot grade two. Down in trip I thought his jumping was pretty slick up to a point.listen, I’m not saying he’s a shoe in, the gizzard horse looks the winner for me and I couldn’t be having the jolly at 11/10, at 100/1 a couple of sheckles ew.

 

While I’m on I really fancy jam session tomorrow. I missed him last time out, his jumping can be a bit sloppy but this duke of marmalade gelding catches the eye on the flat.

 

As usual, off to HQ tomorrow and whilst its a card short on numbers (as is the norm for this meeting, especially the novice races) I think we've got lots of interesting races.

Novice Hurdle, looks a tricky race with Elixir De Nutz trying to give a big penalty away to a field of utterly unexposed sorts. He showed good resolution last time up, and has to be one for building the future form around, but I think both the Nicky Henderson Angels Breath (lovely name for a gelding etc) and the Fergal O'Brien Jarveys Plate looking interesting. I don't think Jarveys Plate needs to improve very much from his debut hurdles run to figure here, and he looks to be an interesting runner. I will wait and see how they look in the parade ring.

Novice Chase, I am all about The Worlds End here, who ran on really takingly at the course last time out, despite making a few novice errors in the race. My rationale for him overturning the form with Ibis Du Rheu is that I believe he has more development and improvement as a chaser and the latter is now relatively exposed over fences. The race last time out worked out perfectly for IDR, who hugged the rail the whole way round, and despite looking a bit one paced at the bottom of the hill, he stayed nicely when switched past the eventual second. The Worlds End didn't have as clear run, he travelled three wide for the most part, and to me looks a sure fire improver with racing. I expect that we will see him hussle the early pace, and I think Lil Rockerfeller is a horse to take on over fences.

LR run last time was interesting for me, as I thought he jumped right at a lot of his fences and I don't really like the shape he makes at his fences. If he jumps like that, or how he did when winning at Cheltenham earlier in the season, it will take a mighty performance from him to beat this much better field. The outsider of the field is more of interest to me, but he needs to find about a stone on my ratings, so whilst improvement is likely, I think The Worlds End is a cracking bet.

Handicap hurdle, the handicapper has given last years winner a right old chance, basically dropping her 4lbs for running in a grade 2! She is now only 2lbs higher than last year when she won by two lengths. My issue with her is the faster ground but I think the market adjustments this evening are right and she was too big at 7s. I like Jam Session too, but again I think the ground is a major negative for him and therefore I am looking at Magic Dancer here. I think the pace will be strong and I think this course suits hurdlers who are held up off the pace over this trip. He is that horse, and I think he will be picking up the best at the end of this race. At 8/1 I think he is a very fair price.

Mares Chase, one of the worst races you will see outside of the P2P night at this track, but I do have a strong fancy in The Bay Birch who has the course form in the book and I think she is the best mare in this race, She should sit mid pack and creep into this, I think she can reverse places with Midnight Target who beat her in April at the track. She has a slight pull in the weights, but more importantly that horse won't get an easy lead and has shown tendancies to jump right handed. At 7s The Bay Birch is another I've backed.

Handicap Chase, hard race. I like Cogry and he seems to have reduced the mistakes this season, but he is on a slightly higher mark than ideal and may find something too good at the line. Theatre Territory struggles to win, and had the run of the race last time out, but she might be on a fair mark, whilst Rock The Kasbah has to reproduce his form from last time out. Kerrow has to shrug off a last fence fall, is this the target for Coo Star Sivola, and will Singlefarmpayments annoy his backers once more? It is one of those races, and that is without bringing in Doing Fine!!

As most know, I will be eating food when the Cross Country is on, but I do really think this race revolves around the Bolger runner My Hometown and the French raider Amazing Comedy. So much so I will probably back both and have a small reverse forecast too. These for me are the two in the race who are open to improvement and have good recent wins in the book.

Finally the last race in which I want a horse with a change of gears (will low sun take the two hurdles out?) but its really hard to find one!! Given that the race is likely to be run at a strong gallop I am hoping they keep a hold of Keepers Hill and ride him for a change of pace up the hill. I am forgiving his run last time out as he came back with a cut leg, and a return to anything like his best novice hurdle form would see him very well handicapped. 12/1 looks fair.

 

Also note that Heskin is injured so will be replaced for rides tomorrow

 

Can't see Donny drawing much of a crowd tomorrow. 7 races, 30 runners. Hardly a feast of NH action there.

 

RV is still going well, often see him tweeting.

Happy birthday old boy.

 

All the very best Oddy. Racing from NH HQ on your birthday can't be all bad. In the lucky last I've had a modest ew speculation on ol boy Buywise @ 33/1. Undoubtedly there are more progressive animals in the field but I'm hoping the combination of trainer nepotism and the ol boy having a going day may see him outrun his odds.

 

Happy 50th Odddy.

Some real characters in that list and decent tipsters too.

 

Happy Birthday old chap! Have a cracking day and have a German beer or two for all of us!

 

With you in Magic Dancer and The Bay Birch. Ibis Du Rheu for me in Novices Chase.

 

Happy birthday Oddy - we share the same birthday but you are a couple of years wiser than me - enjoy the steak.

 

Happy Birthday

 

Happy birthday too!

 

Best Wishes Oddy & Onlyfoolsandhorses

 

Noel Fehily is riding The Worlds End. Good jockey uplift in my book!