Daily Racing Thread Friday 12th. Oct. 2018
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At HQ, the Oh So Sharp Stakes looks like a very hot renewal so the notebook might well gain a few entries. The once-raced Frosty – a sister to Guineas winner Winter – is just one of several with potential. The same can be said for Hidden Message, also victorious on her only start. I was at Beverley when Mot Juste broke her maiden last time in a common canter; and she may be over-priced for last year’s winning yard. Ralph Beckett’s Glance beat Sunday Star and Mot Juste last time (both of whom have won since) and is no forlorn hope if allowed to dictate again.
Limato has won a couple of listed races on his last two starts and he won the Challenge Stakes last year; however, I do not think that he is the Group 1 horse of old so I am happy to take him on with D’bai, second in a seven furlong Group 2 last time (form that the winner has since franked).
The big question mark against the Fillies’ Mile concerns Pretty Pollyanna: will she stay? She disappointed in the Cheveley Park but is the extra two furlongs really what she wants? I am expecting to see her held up in rear with the distance concerns and I think that will not suit her. The Ballydoyle duo, Hermosa and Zagitova, both tie in to the Moyglare form with the former having fared best whilst the latter was beaten on debut by subsequent Prestige winner ANTONIA DE VEGA. The biggest danger to Ralph Beckett’s filly could be Shambolic, stepping up from a small field novice race to a Group 1 today.
Limato has won a couple of listed races on his last two starts and he won the Challenge Stakes last year; however, I do not think that he is the Group 1 horse of old so I am happy to take him on with D’bai, second in a seven furlong Group 2 last time (form that the winner has since franked).
The big question mark against the Fillies’ Mile concerns Pretty Pollyanna: will she stay? She disappointed in the Cheveley Park but is the extra two furlongs really what she wants? I am expecting to see her held up in rear with the distance concerns and I think that will not suit her. The Ballydoyle duo, Hermosa and Zagitova, both tie in to the Moyglare form with the former having fared best whilst the latter was beaten on debut by subsequent Prestige winner ANTONIA DE VEGA. The biggest danger to Ralph Beckett’s filly could be Shambolic, stepping up from a small field novice race to a Group 1 today.
hi all!
newton abbott,3 25:
this is a hot little contest,despite only 3 runners.for me,its MARIAS BENEFIT,as shes one of my absolute favourites in the national hunt scene.had a lot of success with her last season,and if jumping well,should go reasonably well today..
newton abbott,3 25:
this is a hot little contest,despite only 3 runners.for me,its MARIAS BENEFIT,as shes one of my absolute favourites in the national hunt scene.had a lot of success with her last season,and if jumping well,should go reasonably well today..
Lovely horse Maria's Benefit, goes from the front and asks plenty of questions of the opposition. Did it well enough.
"Persian War" festival weekend at Chepstow chaps
Cliffs of Dover not running in the Silver Trophy, I guess that means Nicholls is not happy with him? Ground to suit, nice prep on the flat but off his current mark of 1400 he would have had 11-08. Perhaps the Ditcheat meastro felt that might be a bit much for him on seasonal debut?
Isnt he in the Ces?
newton abbott,4 00:
a close call for me between LUCCA LADY and midnight glory,but the former gets a narrow vote today,as shes been knocking on the door consistently in recent runs,and this longer trip might suit her better too,as she always seems to hit a flat spot in her races.good chance..
a close call for me between LUCCA LADY and midnight glory,but the former gets a narrow vote today,as shes been knocking on the door consistently in recent runs,and this longer trip might suit her better too,as she always seems to hit a flat spot in her races.good chance..
I forgot about the Fillies Mile today.
I have not been impressed by the 2YO females this season and it's rare to see the 1000 Guineas and Oaks as wide open as they are this late in the Flat season.
I looked back at the Group 1 Prix Morny narrowly won by Pretty Pollyanna and the race has worked out awfully since, with zero winners and only one place. It's a race that has been poison for the following year's Guineas' anyway, it's a sprinters race really and I warned on another forum that Pretty Pollyanna had been "Mornyied" when Michael Bell announced that she had been declared for it.
Theoretically, Pretty Pollyanna had 19 bs in hand of today's winner Iredessa but that was never likely at the mile today. For me, Pretty Pollyanna's Guineas ship was holed below the waterline today.
Normally I rule out 2YO's who ran really early in the season. This season though, it seems well worth giving Skitter Scatter the chance to last through to Newmarket and take her status as the leading 2YO filly in all likelihood and back her for Guineas glory.
You can get 16/1 on Skitter Scatter and if I were pricing her I would be thinking more along the lines of 8/1 in a year so devoid of players at this late stage of the season.
1000 Guineas Skitter Scatter 16/1 is my idea of the value.
I have not been impressed by the 2YO females this season and it's rare to see the 1000 Guineas and Oaks as wide open as they are this late in the Flat season.
I looked back at the Group 1 Prix Morny narrowly won by Pretty Pollyanna and the race has worked out awfully since, with zero winners and only one place. It's a race that has been poison for the following year's Guineas' anyway, it's a sprinters race really and I warned on another forum that Pretty Pollyanna had been "Mornyied" when Michael Bell announced that she had been declared for it.
Theoretically, Pretty Pollyanna had 19 bs in hand of today's winner Iredessa but that was never likely at the mile today. For me, Pretty Pollyanna's Guineas ship was holed below the waterline today.
Normally I rule out 2YO's who ran really early in the season. This season though, it seems well worth giving Skitter Scatter the chance to last through to Newmarket and take her status as the leading 2YO filly in all likelihood and back her for Guineas glory.
You can get 16/1 on Skitter Scatter and if I were pricing her I would be thinking more along the lines of 8/1 in a year so devoid of players at this late stage of the season.
1000 Guineas Skitter Scatter 16/1 is my idea of the value.
Varian and David Egan just won the first leg of the maiden at HQ, Varians second winner on the card. Unusual for Varian to have a first time out winner as they usually improve for the run, The horse could be decent. All this leaves me surprised slightly that their runner in Div 2 of the maiden, DUBRAVA, is 66/1. Ran ok in a maiden at the course 13 days ago and you would normally expect improvement as I mentioned earlier. Could be worth a bob or two each way at those odds!
Going for 3 at Wolves tonight:
6.45 ANOTHER ANGEL 6/4
8.15 WAR DEPARTMENT 10/3
8.45 DECORATION OF WAR 10/3
6.45 ANOTHER ANGEL 6/4
8.15 WAR DEPARTMENT 10/3
8.45 DECORATION OF WAR 10/3
I should have posted this earlier, but couldn't, due to being at work.
Had one of ,my little e/w patents come in today
Did 6 5p e/w patents, and this one duly obliged.
Colonel Custard (9/2) nice drift, ended up winning at 10/1
Rolling Maul (11/2)
Miss Mash (15/2)
All with skybet.
With a 10p rule 4, it paid £41 - 46.
Another one like that tomorrow and that will be my day out at the races next week paid for
Had one of ,my little e/w patents come in today
Did 6 5p e/w patents, and this one duly obliged.
Colonel Custard (9/2) nice drift, ended up winning at 10/1
Rolling Maul (11/2)
Miss Mash (15/2)
All with skybet.
With a 10p rule 4, it paid £41 - 46.
Another one like that tomorrow and that will be my day out at the races next week paid for
I see Skitter Scatter is a positive on Oddschecker today. The big firms are generally 10/1 on her and she is blue across the boards. John Oxx was positive about her and he has joined forces with her original trainer Paddy Prendergast who will now be Oxx's assistant after giving up his own licence.
John Oxx admits that Skitter Scatter is not a big filly but says she has a good temperament and is easy to get fit. She will go straight to Newmarket, which I think is a good thing. She may not be one to follow through the season as the later maturing fillies catch up but early in May she might have a chance of being ready whereas others may not be rushed with other targets throughout the season perhaps the bigger priority.