Frankel - Stud Career

From the punter's point of view though Ron, most will see a talented sire bred with a talented mare and assume that sparks will fly. I saw plenty of people on another forum being beguiled by some of the Frankel match ups and then being unable to accept that mediocrity is the outcome.

People have said to me that you have to give 2YO's more time to prove themselves but I had a very consistent record of pinpointing Frankel youngsters that I didn't think would make it at 3YO. The very first one, Cunco, was a tiny individual who I put a pen through early but others seemed to think he would come good eventually. Even Gosden admitted that the horse wasn't one for "Next season" but it seems a few sites have a fan club element that don't like input from the real world.

I speak purely from a punter's perspective and I am not one to follow the Frankel offspring, purely because there is inbuilt poor value due to the sires achievements.

I have been going with Kingman instead this season and it's been not bad.

 

You're probably right about the poor value based on colourful pedigree. I agree about 2yo form. At that age they are nowhere near reaching maturity. A few months can make quite a difference and some are months older than others. Some are naturally more forward than others, some have little/no scope and don't train on. There are exceptions of course but generally a horse will benefit from little/no racing as a 2yo. Foals/yearlings that are expected to mature into really nice 3/4yos are best saved for as late introduction to racing as possible. They will probably be lightly raced/not highly tried and therefore their form, if any, as a 2yo can be taken with a pinch of salt. Conversely, those with little scope will be trained to make as much money as early as possible before the others catch up and overtake them.

Re Frankel's offspring, the best so far is undoubtedly Cracksman who, despite being very immature, nearly won 2 Derbies and showed his ability on his final run. I will be looking for another one like him. I liked him a lot

I dare say you could take any stallion and find fault with most of their offspring. One can only hope that some (or more likely one) of the offspring turn(s) out to be as good or better than their sires

 

Some interesting comments and some I don't agree with. I haven't really monitored whether Frankel's offspring improve with racing. You may be right that they don't. Sometimes the illusion that horses don't improve is that they were only ever capable of winning the maiden they won. The number of horses that win only one race is legion, and is closely followed by those that win one race, go handicapping and after slipping down the ranks win another. I did write about how I felt about Frankel earlier on this thread so I won't repeat those comments.

I believe it was certain that there would be a lot of hyperbole about Frankel's offspring. In fact one trainer actually voiced the same opinion a year or so ago and that was Charlton. Having said that Frankel, with only 3 crops, lies 3rd behind only Galileo and Dubawi. So ahead of Sea the Stars who I personally rate as a top stallion. They, incidentally, both share the same impediment in that they are unlikely (probably sensibly) to be bred to daughters of Galileo. That is a big disadvantage and a big advantage to the likes of Nonaynever, Caravaggio and Roaring Lion.

Knocking the offspring of two good/great horses is an easy pastime. It is statistically difficult for a dam to have more impact than a sire as it is a numbers game. A mare has one racehorse every year, while the sire of that racehorse has 100+ racehorses every year. It is statistically unlikely that that one racehorse will better than the 100+ others. However that does not stop there being certain mares (often from families of very good fillies) showing some consistency. The obvious cases are Hasili and Urban Sea. So what may excite me about the breeding of a horse may not be that the sire and the dam are a dream match as you say. Winning families are more important to me. Australia is an obvious outlier being by a Derby winner out of an Oaks winner (Lammtarra also did it but her dam won her Oaks after the race in an enquiry).

I do resent your comments about Charlton. He has had an awful year because he was hit by the virus. He's actually done quite well recently with his 2yos and I predict a better year if his string stays healthy. The apparent demise of trainers is overdone. Cecil (2001 to 2005) and Hern (1968-9) couldn't have trained ivy up a wall at those times. Yet triumphs were just a few years off for both of them. Bad horses and the virus are great levellers.
Can't understand your comments about Mark Johnston as you don't get 5000 winners if you can't make horses improve. Elarqam was a huge disappointment this year but perhaps he wasn't as good as we felt he was, or he didn't train on or perhaps there was something wrong with him.
Agree with you about Kingman. With little fuss he created a great impression. I would not be surprised to see him at a higher fee than Frankel in a couple of years time. Despite being by a Northern Dancer line stallion he can be comfortably bred to daughters of Galileo (and Danehill) under most circumstances (where they are not out of daughters of Green Desert).

 

Having taken Grendel to task I again question your statement that 2yos will benefit from little or no racing as a 2yo. As I said before most great racehorses raced as 2yos, many of them having several races. Where is the proof for what you say when the evidence points the other way? Yes, Sea of Class was unraced as a 2yo but she was an exception.There are few others. Even Poet's Word, who certainly reached his peak as a 5yo, ran as a 2yo.
I think the current theory is that a young horse's bones being subjected to some level of strain aids the horses' skeletal development. Getting this right is obviously a balance, but surely that is the skill of training. Even if a horse runs just once, as say Enable, Treve or Cracksman did, it aids their development as a racehorse. Obviously you shouldn't run a horse that is weak and incapable, but how many of those horses that are like that go on to be champions?
Sure Morston won the Derby after just one race as a 3yo, but Generous had run twice before the end of June of his 2yo season. Royal Palace who was at his best as a 4yo ran first in the Coventry. Crepello started his career in the Norfolk Stakes. George Washington made his debut at the Guineas meeting. In fact AOB seems to favour getting his horses out as early as possible, often running down the field FTO, then improving. Remember the big daddy Nearco ran 7 times as a 2yo.
I went through a list of horses earlier in this thread and you seemed to agree. But again you return to your maxim that an unraced 2yo career is a benefit. I just don't see it.
We can be 90% certain we've seen the winner of next year's Derby. It is also highly likely we've seen the winner of 2020's King George if it's a 4yo.

A quote from an academic paper

Recent studies have also demonstrated that Thoroughbreds which begin racing as 2-year-olds have a longercareer compared to those which begin training and racing at an older age. There is growing evidence that in order to maximize the increases in bone and tendon strength that result from training, horses should begin training at an early age. Although this debate is sure to continue, so far there is no convincing evidence that age per se is the biggest factor in musculoskeletal injuries.

 

I think I said "unraced/ lightly raced" Bustino. I know you have quoted top 2yos that went on to be good 3yos but not many top 2yos become top 3yos and if they do they are packed off to stud at 3 (usually).

I agree that the odd race on a track at 2 won't do any harm but I don't consider that as being hard trained as a 2yo, especially if it is clear to see that they have had a nice introduction and not been extended to win or run well. I haven't checked but I'd be surprised if many (if any) early season 2yos train on to be top 3yos. In my younger days I got my fingers burned backing top 2yos for the classics

Re "We can be 90% certain we've seen the winner of next year's Derby", we may have seen the winner but there is a very high chance it won't be to top 2yo. Sea The Stars was seen as a 2yo but was nowhere near the top rated 2yo, Harbinger, wasn't seen at all as a 2yo and became the biggest margin winner of the KG. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the greats who were raced as 2yos were held back until the latter half of the season (eg Sea Bird). I would consider such horses as lightly raced.

Yes, free galloping does aid their natural development (they do this as foals) but I maintain that a horse's joints are not properly fused at 2 and hard training/racing cannot be in the best long term interest of the horse. Of course, the obvious fact that helps with any stats is that these 2yos are running against other 2yos.

 

Correction. I said "little/no racing" and "lightly raced/not highly tried"

 

Sea Bird started in August and in his 3rd race contested France’s then top 2yo race. I think he was highly tried.
Mill Reef started in May and ran in 6 races as a 2yo. He won the Coventry, Gimcrack and Dewhurst. Ditto
Brigadier Gerard started in June and ran 4 times, winning the Middle Park against 2 very fast 2yos who went on to Group glory the next year. Ditto
Even Sea the Stars started in July and rounded off his 2yo career with a Group 2 win. I’d say that was pretty searching. He was3rd favourite for the Guineas.
We’ll have to agree to disagree. Ha ha

 

Yep. I knew you would pluck a few out but I don't call July early and as I said, they are running against other 2yos so a 2 yo will win

 

Hardly plucked. They are (Frankel aside) Timeform's top rated horses of the last 60 years.

 

Enable, best filly ever. One race as a 2yo (in Nov). Harbinger, best middle distance horse for some time, unraced as a 2yo.

We could go on forever Bustino. Can't argue with Timeform ratings (having been a Timeform follower for over 50 years but the form doesn't give you the state of their joints when they are packed off to stud at 3 (or sometimes 4).

Anyway, I'll change the subject now as you know I respect your opinion and no doubt I'll be asking for it when we come to put our Dancing Brave granddaughter in foal to a racehorse. Judging by the quality of what she has produced so far I think she could be a cracking broodmare, but time will tell

 

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/frankel-a-rising-star-at-stud/#.W_-mksydNY0.twitter

Thought this was an interesting read, Frankel had 4 foals at the Tattersalls December sale selling from 450,000gns to 700,000gns with Juddmonte paying the higher price for one of them.

 

Oops not the best start in his jumping career.

On a happier note Frankel had two more winners in Chateau La Fleur and Playfrank For Me

 

We can be 90% certain we've seen the winner of next year's Derby.

I am not so sure about that this season.

Too Darn Hot and Quorto have both been labelled as dubious stayers by their trainers. Aiden has also got a dubious stayer in Magma Grecia, who won a weak looking Racing Post Trophy/Futurity Thingy/Whatchacallit/Watchthisspace at Doncaster.

The O'Brien colts who have looked sure stayers have also looked pretty mediocre into the bargain and it seems like most of Aidan's potential Derby colts have turned out to be more St Leger types for the past few seasons. I did a piece in Golden Horn's year where I stated that the Ballydoyle team looked too slow for Epsom after watching the trials that year.

Anthony Van Dyck leads Aidan's Derby troops at the moment but I feel he is appalling value at as low as 10/1 for The Derby. He has already had 7 runs, he has only won three of his 7 races and was odds on every time he won. He took in the Breeder's Cup, which I feel is a negative and there is next to no stamina on his dam's side. She ran twice at sprint trips and her progeny so far have been sprinters. I would reckon he has no chance of getting a mile and a half. 10/1? Where is the bookie's cojones here? As Les Dennis would say, "I'll give you the money myself if he wins"

US Army Ranger was unraced at 2YO but emerged in April at 3YO. Following a narrow win at Chester in the Vase, he went on to be second in the Derby as favourite for the race. In a normal year you would have thought his odds poor given the maiden and slightly controversial Chester Vase win, when his stablemate seemed to allow him an easy passage, yet he went close to winning it and I have a similar feeling about this years crop of youngsters, who could be caught up by, and pehaps passed, by a later developer.

I had a very speculative fiver on Too Darn Hot for The Derby at 50/1 before his debut but my confidence waned as I saw him deviate to a Guineas like career path. I have a good enough book on the Derby as things stand but am far from confident that I have the winner. I will be keeping a close eye out in the Spring for any market movers because a maiden win followed up by a trial win could easily put a new name into the frame in a year where the mile 2YO winners have failed to inspire and several of the leading names in the betting look dubious to stay or simply look as bargy as Boaty McBoatface.

 

When I said that I thought I was being mean as based on the last 100 years it’s 97%. I’d stand by that even though I agree generally with what you are saying about the horses you mention.
Every now and again we’ll get another Commander in Chief but the statistics point to Epsom’s winner having already run by the end of the year.

 

Looks you were right Bustino.

 

The last 100 years has little relevance as a stat for the modern era. I would much rather look at the last decade for more of a topical trend.

The latest Derby was atypical in that few of the prominent finishers actually stayed 12F. Masar won the race despite having run to a mark of 22 on Racing Post figures in a prep race at Meydan in the Spring. In winning the Epsom Derby he bucked many trends and he never ran again to cement himself as the top mile and a half colt of his generation.

In Masar's absence we saw Latrobe win the Irish Derby with a measly RPR of 116, a figure that surprised the people who disagreed with my assessment that it had been the worst Irish Derby I had ever seen.

I got slated on another forum for being "Unkind" to Latrobe but the form does not lie. He ran in the Irish St Leger but was beaten and the third horse there was John Gosden's Weekender, a Frankel colt whose last win was in a May contest at Chelmsford where he ran to 107 in a modest affair. Weekender was running at 2 miles afterwards and you have to consider him as a modest and slow horse.

For me, Horse Racing is littered with mediocre horses who have fan clubs willing to create excuses for their failures. My aim is to cut through the sentiment and focus on the facts. I am not always correct by any means because it is a tricky sport to predict but I feel there is better value in trusting your own opinion over a media obsessed with hyping modest horses beyond their actual talent level.

 

What was it that George Santayana said? "He who ignores history........".. But then again he didn't write for the Racing Post.

OK, let's look at the last 10 years. Every winner of the Derby had run as a 2yo except Ruler of the World..

Not sure of the point of your note as it seems to agree with what I said. If you look at the first 4 in the Derby they had all had reasonably searching 2yo campaigns, even if that is not the point I was making. My point was/is that it's almost certain that we've already seen next years Derby winner run, nothing more than that. He could have won one of these Wolverhampton maidens for all I know.

The 2018 Derby was highly unsatisfactory. For all I know Masar was an average Derby winner or perhaps even better. He was a good 2yo, it looked like, when he won the Solario. Ran poorly in France.He then ran a stinker in the Breeder's Cup. He won a race in Meydan (think it was 112 not 22), then put the Craven field to the sword. The 2000G winner was too fast for him but over 12f he turned the tables fairly conclusively. As he was injured we then had no idea whether he's good or just lucky to run against a lot of non-stayers.

 

My mistake Ruler of the World did not run as a 2yo. Not the most distinguished Derby winner but he didn't get to the races as a 2yo. Apologies.