Every season there seems to be a team who get it right during the last third of the season - last year it was Reading. This year it looks like its Forest. I would suggest that they are now a danger not just for the play-offs, but also for automatic promotion - after all they are now only 8 points behind Hull and 6 behind us, neither team of which is showing much form in the last few matches. Forest are going like trains under Davies - reminds me of the 1999 run we had with GT. It could be Forest grab that second place at the death and Crystal Palace do well in the play-offs. I hope I'm totally wrong - but I just have this feeling......
I disagree - despite Palace looking like losing today based on what I have seen of all the teams in the top 8 this season Cardiff will finish top, 2nd will be us, Hull or Palace - despite their impressive run I dont rate Forest. They will lose soon..... Meanwhile I hope the break gets us going again for the final charge - 8 games to make or break our season. My biggest worry is as someone has said on here a few weeks back, this season is going to be our best chance of going up. There is a feel good factor, we have Vydra and Chalobah whilst next year there will be so many (as there always is) big teams in the Championship. As other people have also said - we never expected to have a (good) chance of automatic promotion this year so I will continue to enjoy the ride. If you look at our remaining fixtures none are easy. Then again if you look at our previous 38 - none are easy! That is the championship for you. We need to get the belief back and everyone fit for the run-in. A scrappy win at home to burnley will do nicely and set things up beautifully for 'Easter Tuesday'. Note that I have not mentioned yesterday....
They've left it too late for automatic promotion. They have to overturn a combined 19 points in just 8 games - mathematically possible but not realistic. However the play offs are generally won by the form team and that could easily be them.
I'm not particularly bothered about Forest for automatic promotion. If our form is bad enough to drop seven points to them in the last eight games (our goal difference vs theirs is surely a point in the bag now), then we would never have stayed ahead of Hull and Palace anyway. And if it turns out that their form is that much better than ours, I would rather they took second than Hull or Palace. If they were to overtake us and still not go up, they would have a dangerous head of steam going into the playoffs.
i see the break working in our favour. Forest will lose their momentum, and we will be well rested and ready to crack on. Keep the faith COYH!
You might be interested in the extended highlights of CIty's game versus Forest yesterday. http://http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xy9o5s_hcfc-nffc_sport#.UUXN2qIUT6U They give a fairly accurate impression of yesterday's game and I suspect that you'll be re-assured. On balance they were really pretty lucky to get a win and I doubt that their luck will hold out long enough for them to challenge for a top two place. They'll give any of our teams a good game but certainly not an unsurmountable challenge.
They have to play us at our place in mid april, most of our fans on our board have pencilled that particular game in as the day we will clinch promotion, you boys have had a bit of a wobble and Barnsley seemed to bully you off of the ball, you will come back ok, and i see it as a straight fight for the autos between Cardiff, Hull and Watford. Malky wont let us be bottlers this year, we are not pretty on the eye, but we are grinding out results, even when we shouldnt have, aka Derby and Leicester at home. Interesting times ahead. But as a Cardiff fan, you just couldnt have hoped for this weekend set of results.
Had dinner yesterday with my Forest friend who fully expects his lot to bottle it at the end. Seen it too many times with this manager he thinks, but all the teams around do seem to be helping out this season.
Good team and a good shout for the play-offs but I dont think that they will get automatic promotion. 8 games to go, and every team at the top is guranteed to have some form of wobble. The comparisons between Forest and Reading are wrong, with Reading's run to the title started soon after we beat them in October time, which left them in the relegation zone. The closest comparison to Reading could arguably be us after quite a shaky start!
At this stage of the season everybody is a potential danger. Can't see Forest getting second but do now fancy them and Brighton for a playoff spot. As long as we have a fully fit squad for the run in and are able to recapture our best form we have every chance of second spot. If we finish in a play off spot would much rather face Forest who are a footballing side rather than Palace whose game is all about pace and power.
I like the cut of your jib ! Looking at the stats (not quite so pleasant after Saturday, but nevertheless) using the 5 game and 10 game average, we find trend over 5 10 Mean Cardiff 89.2...91.2 90 Hull 77.6... 82.4 80 WFC 77.2... 79.6 78 Palarse 76.2... 78.6 77 Forest 84 ... 72.8 78 Leicester 62.2...66.2 64 Brighton 70.2...72.6 71 (Bolton, on 54 are too far behind for even the most depressive supporter, those who think we might still be relegated! As I have said, it's mathematically impossible NOW THAT WE DO NOT HAVE A POINTS DEDUCTION. Oh YES !) Now, since I do the stats, I can choose how to interpret them. I reckon Cardiff will get close to 90, all the rest will get around what the averages say, except WFC will get nearer to 82/83 (based on the following completely non-statistical results...) Burnley 3 Cardiff 3 Hull 0 Blackburn 3 Millwall 3 ( FA cup!) Peterboro 0 ( Never have any idea how they will perform) Leicester 1 Leeds 3 That is however, almost exactly our statistical return since January i.e. 2 points a game ! Fancy that. Finally, I'm off to portugal and france until 18th April with mrs JT ( arranged when we were 15th going on 15th) so I will leave it all up to the rest of you to encourage, sing, plead and pray that it all turns out all ok. I expect to return to sing us into the accursed Premiership - which we all seem to despise until we get there ! COYH
Bodbo - I am a statistician too and unsurprisingly have reached conclusions similar to you. Cardiff - approaching 90 - yes Hull - could get to 80 - yes Watford 78? - I think the recent average is too pessimistic and if we return to form see us on 80 Palace - 77? - like Watford I think a bit more - 79 Forest - Burnley away, Cardiff,away, Middlesboro away, Leicester and Brighton at home - no; their recent form is too strong and will be challenged - 73 Leicester - maybe only 66 if they dont pick up at all - my feeling is 70 Brighton - four "easy" home games and a couple of away points - 73 What worries me is it is in bookies language 2:1 against us getting automatic - and play offs are won by the most in-form team which may not be us - but that is for later Have a great time in Portugal and France
