Flat Horses To Follow [2020]

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Grade One, Feb 21, 2020.

  1. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Who do we like, preferably one a bit under the radar

    Will kick off with: National Treasure

    Godolphin filly who failed to live up to market expectations in a couple of runs last summer, but gave me the impression she would make a better 3 year old.
     
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  2. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Vintage Rascal

    The son of Nathaniel was originally with Richard Hannon but he moved to Tom Ward last October as an unraced colt. It was not long before he made his debut though and it was a winning one. Racing at Windsor over a mile on soft ground Vintage Rascal was not far away before being ridden to take the lead about a furlong from home, forging clear and staying on really strongly to win by four and a half lengths. It probably wasn't much of a race but Vintage Rascal showed promise of plenty more to come when upped to 10F and 12F races. The Dam has not produced much but being by Nathaniel he should improve for time and coming from one of the lesser yards he may be underestimated and backable because of it.

    Entered in the Epsom Derby but highly unlikely that he will even make one of the trials for that race, let alone run in it. Never the less he has a Racing Post mark of 80 to build from and may be worth keeping an eye on.
     
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  3. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Adding..Al Qaqaa

    Top connections shocked when he got beat at short odds last November, but looks a Haggas work in progress
     
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  4. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Majestic Noor

    Though beaten in both all weather races before Xmas, she looked the type John Gosden would bring along nicely
     
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  5. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Also like Lady G

    Promising 4th on only run last Autumn in heavy ground.
     
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  6. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    One who will be unlikely to be much of a price when next seen is Man Of Promise. The Godolphin colt was a shade of odds-on when making his debut at Ascot in July and he ran a most encouraging race in 3rd place. He was finishing off his race quite well that day before being slightly hampered by the winner in the closing stages. I don't think he would have won but it may have cost him second place as he ultimately went down by just a neck and the same in third.

    The names of the horses ahead of him that day are what make Man Of Promise an eyecatcher because the winner was Mums Tipple and the runner up was Molatham. Those horses ended the season rated over 100 and there is good reason to suspect Man Of Promise can do a lot better than his RPR of 84 thus far.

    Man Of Promise is USA bred and his sire is Into Mischief who stands at $175000 this year. Audible is the sire's best rated runner on Racing Post figures on 120, a figure gained when 3rd in the Kentucky Derby. Covfeve, who won at last year's Breeder's Cup and is a talented 7F horse is another prominent example of the sire's progeny.

    Man Of Promise holds an entry in the Irish 2000 Guineas but Godolphin already have a strong hand for the Guineas races this season. On breeding I would think Man Of Promise could turn out to be a talented 6F horse this season provided that he has wintered well and been problem free. I would be thinking of getting a win into him before aiming at the Commonwealth Cup. There is a shed load of talent who could go to that race but we normally see most of them head to the Guineas and/or fall by the wayside as others catch up from the 2YO season.

    Unlikely to be any price if running in a maiden but he may indeed have the promise that his name would suggest.
     
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  7. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    As for Unraced 3 year olds, will be interested the Deep Impact colt named: Star Of Juniper

    As is trained by Donnacha O'Brien who I think like his younger brother is going to be very successful in his new career
     
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  8. mallafets123

    mallafets123 Well-Known Member

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    Imagine if this Covid19 rumbles on and we do not get a flat season, will Pinatubo be kept for a 4yo campaign?
     
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  9. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Hope it does not come to that, could actually see all the early classics being run at Newmarket!
     
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  10. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Probably obvious to the likes of you (and others) but your reasoning has made me think that it is worth looking at some 2yos that finished on a high mark and checking back to see who they beat and looking specifically at late maturers having their first or second run and who had a "considerate" introduction and maybe not run since. In other words, horses who have been kept back for a 3yo career who, had they raced more as a 2yo, would have (probably) finished on a much higher mark
     
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  11. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Another one i thought worth keeping an eye on was Sky Commander. Trained by James Tate and a son of War Command, Sky Commander made his debut in a Leicester maiden over 6F in May. It was a low key effort in 8th place and you can assume there must have been a reason why we did not see him again until December. Despite the absence Sky Commander was 5/4 Fav dropped to a Class 5 maiden over 7 furlongs at Kempton. He didn't face strong horses, some of whom were in the 70s on ratings but he demolished his field by 7 lengths and a couple of those behind have managed to win a race since.

    I loved the way Sky Commander came from a handy position in behind to take it up on the far rail and he fairly kicked away inside the furlong furlong, crossing the line with more in hand than the bare margin and on the evidence of that run he will stay a mile. Rated just 49 for his debut he clocked a much better speed figure second time out and was rated 95 on RPR's, an improvement of 46 lbs. He is entered in the 2000 Guineas but would need another 20 lbs progress to be a contender there, however he would not be one to underestimate. Watching the head-on of his winning race he looks green and he should improve again this year.
     
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  12. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    That horse has had 2 runs, both in England, is trained in Britain (Suffolk) but is not on the BHA database. Any idea why that might be. I'm beginning to think this BHA database isn't much cop
     
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  13. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    I went in and got it on the horses database. He hasn't got a rating despite his victory. Trained by Tate now but originally by I Mohammed. I think the database is a little temperamental. I find it best not to tick the box (only include horses etc.)
     
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    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
  14. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Reading further I found out that Sky Commander was lame after his debut race and they gave him time to get over that. The trainer states that a Novice race next time will hopefully be followed by the Burradon at Newcastle or a traditional Guineas trial if he is good enough. All up in the air at the moment of course.

    Looking at Nursery Criteria, some sited say a horse can be handicapped if it wins one of it's first two races. I am not sure if you have to enter a Nursery to obtain a handicap racing from the assessor. I suppose there would be little point in awarding a rating if it were not to enter a Nursery and the assessor could wait for the third run to get a better handle on the form.

    One site I saw said that horses had to get a rating of 80 or lower to qualify, while another said that the horse had to have a mark less than 85 to get in. You would think that the conditions would be laid out more clearly on the BHA website.

    Anyway, mid March James Tate told ATR that Sky Commander was working well and was in the "Could be anything" category. The handler also had good words for Big Impression (Dubawi colt) and Blazing Hot (Hot Streak colt), who were unraced but he felt they would be progressive and worth following this year.
     
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  15. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Where are you looking Bustino? I'm looking at the BHA Ratings Database, which I have down loaded, along with the performance database

    upload_2020-3-30_10-54-3.png
     
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  16. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Ah, you looked here I didn't even see that option as I originally was searching for ratings and it took me straight to the ratings database which, of course, he wasn't on
    upload_2020-3-30_10-59-36.png
     
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  17. stick

    stick Bumper King

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  18. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    #18
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  19. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    But it beat a 76 rated horse by over 7l. I'm sure someone on here could translate that into a "near enough" rating
     
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  20. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    For a 7F race it would be 2 lbs a length, so 14 lbs for 7 lengths and if the runner up is 76 the winner would be 90.

    As I said, the Racing Post awarded Sky Commander 95 but they seem to be higher than the official handicapper, more times than the other way around, when awarding a rating for an individual race.

    Horses without a rating can be entered in handicap races and a mark will then be allotted by the handicapper but if the mark is higher than the band for the race in question the entry will be invalid, however there is a tolerance level of up to 2 lbs, so a 76 or 77 rated horse would be allowed into a 0-75 Handicap.

    If Sky Commander had been entered in a Handicap and awarded a mark, it would almost certainly been too high for a Nursery race.
     
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