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Flat Horses To Follow [2019]

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Grade One, Mar 31, 2019.

  1. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Start off with: Getchagetchagetcha

    Awful name but pleased to see he looks to have trained on when a good 2nd at Kempton early in the month, after being highly tried as a 2 year old once he won on debut.

    In good hands being trained by Clive Cox
     
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  2. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Next up is: Ceratonia

    Godolphin filly who also won on debut at Ascot, but perhaps found the step up in class afterwards coming a bit soon.

    Trained by the master who is Charlie Appleby, which is a big tick in anyone's box these days
     
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  3. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Runs in a G3 today in France [1.35 Longchamp]

    Do not think he will be disgraced though, so each way bet at 16-1 [Paddy Power]
     
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  4. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Space Blues is entered up at Newbury this week in a decent looking conditions race over 10F.

    The Charlie Appleby colt is yet another Dubawi colt, this time out of Miss Lucifer. Based on the dam, you would not be confident he would get a mile and a half but he holds Dante and Derby entries.

    Space Blues was not seen until late in the season at Nottingham, where he beat a John Gosden horse who was favourite on the day. The pair were well clear of the remainder that day and I liked the way Space Blues picked up to win well in attritional conditions.

    His action suggests a bit of cut will suit Space Blues but he really put the Gosden colt in his place readily on debut and no doubt we would have been waxing about what would have been a five length winner had Appleby's horse not been in the race. The second, third and fourth won races afterwards and altthough not great form the winner looked a class apart on his debut and may be very decent.

    Looks a decent field on Friday, with Racing Post Trophy runner Turgenev entered for Gosden but he will have to give three pounds to the Appleby runner. Space Blues needs to have progressed but I expect that he will and he may be capable of winning some decent races this year.

    SPACE BLUES (Dubawi-Miss Lucifer) Charlie Appleby (RPR 90)
     
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  5. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Surfman also looked decent in the first division of that maiden, in a pretty good time, it was raining that day and the track got slower as the day went on, how much slower between these two divisions I dont know but both produced decent times for the 2yo 8.5f at the track, Space Blues got a 90 RPR compared to 82 for Surfman despite the slower time.

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    No doubting that visually Space Blues was more impressive, he was also having his first run while Surfman had the benefit of a promising debut in a strong looking course and distance event featuring a nice prospect of Roger Charltons in Tempus. Space Blues is out of Miss Lucifer who was a decent 7f filly for Barry Hills and he looked more of a miler to me, travelling easily and quickening well off a slow gallop, looking professional and the type who was ready to step up in class.

    Surfman is out the 1m4 mare Shimmering Surf and is a half brother to Godolphins 1m4 G1 winner Kitesurf, he certainly looked like a 1m4 horse himself and looks a decent prospect for the next few years, probably not up to classic standard this season though.

    Interestingly, two horses from these two divisions ran yesterday. Private Secretary(2nd btn 2 1/4 by Space Blues) beat Entrusting(5th btn 5 1/4 by Surfman) by 1 1/4L. Form doesnt really mean much in these maidens though as ive learned over the last few years, but its good to see horses at least running well from them early season.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 10, 2019
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  6. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    As shown in the times above, Vivid Diamond clocked the best 8.5f 2yo time at Nottingham in the last 10 years when beating Gosdens Ambling a neck, she went on to finish a neck 2nd in the listed Montrose stakes at Newmarket. The interesting thing is the winner of that race, Blue Gardenia, had previously been hammered 4L by a Ralph Beckett debutant Dancing Vega, with none other than Ambling a neck behind in 3rd.

    Dancing Vega is yet another prospect for Lope De Vega out of a 1m G1 winner in New Zealand, she is a half to a G3 10f winner and its safe to say she outclassed some listed level opponents first time and should be well up to running in Group races. She is 4/1 for the Fred Darling on Saturday and despite coming up against fillies with Group race experience, she should be well up to competing and might just put herself in the Guineas picture. Normally I wouldnt be having a once raced maiden winner for a Guineas but the fillies last year really didnt look great and I think shes worth backing on Saturday and at 14/1 for the Guineas.
     
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  7. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Beckett has several with the name De Vega in the mix. I think I have confused a few of them already and perhaps we need a guide along the lines of "How to solve a problem like De Vega"

    Antonia De Vega:- Won her first two races but was then last in the Fillies Mile. RPR 100 Entered in Guineas and Oaks.

    Dancing Vega:- Won her only race. RPR 92 Entered in the 1000 Guineas

    Feliciana De Vega:- Won both her races so far. Sluiced home in an early November race at Newmarket and then dotted up in a Listed race at Deauville in mid December. Late in the year for UK youngsters to be running but looked stylish. RPR 101 No big entries currently shown.

    Manuela De Vega:- Won both races so far. Maiden was followed by a Listed win at Pontefract where she won nicely despite being green. RPR 96 Entered in the Irish Oaks.

    Teodora De Vega:- Black sheep of Beckett's Vega family. Unplaced in three starts. RPR 65 Handicaps surely await?

    I liked Feliciana De Vega but she was an awful late starter at two. Dancing Vega could be anything but Ralph Beckett is not a man I would associate with the 1000 Guineas on past evidence and at 14/1 she seems a bit tight for a filly who needs to come forward quickly for the first fillies Classic. I would rather play her in the Fred Darling at 4/1, with So Perfect looking poor value after an inconsistent first season.
     
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  8. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Lope De Vega is doing very well for them.

    Normally I couldnt have a once raced maiden winner for a Guineas but I think she already ran to Group level on debut and I think the fact she is only 14/1 says more about the lack of star quality in the established group fillies, in a normal year with a proper Obrien fillies mile/Moyglare winner she would be around 25-33/1, but Skitter Skatter practically set the standard. The best 2yo fillies last year were only rated around 110, a good performance in any of the trials this year should give anyone a real shot at the 1000 Guineas.
     
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  9. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Charlie Appleby said that they were hopeful Space Blues might get a mile and a half in time and that they would probably work towards that trip via 10F runs. Originally said to be a possible for the Craven meeting, he has stood his ground for Friday's Newbury race where the Gosden pair Turgenev and Waldstern are part of those still involved, along with Roger Charlton's Headman. I am hoping to get reasonable odds for Space Blues, who is rated 11 lbs behind the Gosden duo on Racing Post figures.

    Regarding the times for the races at Nottingham, it was bright and clear when Surfman won his race but by the time Space Blues ran it was dark and overcast, with the jockeys silks sodden with rain. The ground looked pretty churned up from the earlier race and it was attritional looking conditions for the race itself. The going was changed from good to soft, to soft after Space Blues race, so I am confident he ran in slower conditions than Surfman.
     
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  10. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    1000 Guineas is wide open for sure Eddie. I feel the better value for Dancing Vega is the trial race though. It's hard to visualise her getting beaten there and then landing the Guineas, so it looks better value having less O'Brien opposition than there might be in the big one.
     
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  11. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Its obvious he ran in slower conditions, it continued to rain all day and got progressively softer, how much softer in the space of 30 minutes is anyones guess, the slower gallop in the second division played its part as well.

    Im not saying the faster time meant anything, my point was that both times were decent for the track in the last 10 years.
     
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  12. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    You are probably right, 4/1 for a G3 vs 14/1 for a Classic. The flip side is if she was to win impressively the 14/1 would look decent, if she only scrapes in she still covers the guineas bet. So Perfect has form with the best fillies from last season, she beat the Moyglare winner and went close in the Cheveley Park, Obriens are also more forward than normal this year. If Dancing Vega can beat So Perfect on only her second start she would look a major player for the Guineas. Its a risk but nothing else has interested me for the race so im not too bothered.

    The other filly I like is more a middle distance type.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 10, 2019
  13. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I just think there is a strong possibilty that Space Blues actually put up the better time when all factors are considered. It was actually raining when Space Blues was running and not all people remember these things when looking back and making comparisons.

    Just trying to add flesh to the bones of the bare form.
     
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  14. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    The rain stared a few minutes before the Surfman maiden, was raining during both races, it started to get heavier around 10 minutes before the second division, wasnt enough time to get properly into the the ground but definitely bit softer on top. It went from Gd To Soft(Good in places) to Gd To Soft id say, the times are too low to be proper soft ground.

    The key difference between the races was the pace, they were around 3 seconds faster to straight in the first division. Space Blues has shown he can quicken well off a slow pace but I dont share Applebys confidence about him being a 12f horse. I do agree it was the better performance and he was the best horse running that day though.

    Really looking forward to that race on Friday, Turgenev, Stormwave, Headman and Space Blues. I think Space Blues will have too many gears for them, soft ground flat track should be ideal.


     
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    Last edited: Apr 10, 2019
  15. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Space Blues is 11/10 on the opening show so I haven't bothered with that.

    Decided to back him for the Derby at 33/1 instead for an interest. Sure to shorten if winning tomorrow.
     
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  16. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    He opened up 5/2 with 365, lasted 10 minutes for anyone who can get on with them, hes a pretty high profile horse already and Simon Rowlands featured him in his recent article so always likely to be overbet. Rowlands says he clocked sub 12s for each of the final 4 furlongs, although he didnt mention how slow the pace was.

    Dubawi has had better 12f candidates fail at Epsom and tbh, ill chuck it if this horse wins the Derby with that pedigree for all I think hes a high class prospect, a decent back to lay maybe.

    Jason Watson is new number 1 for Charlton this year and Headman might be their Ace, could be a bit of value here at 9/2 against the fav, Zakouski now 3rd in the betting for the Guineas and Headman was giving him 7 pounds. The dam was a 10f winner on soft so think they will be disappointed if he doesnt go close all things considered.
     
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  17. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Khuzaam - (Kittens Joy - Afraah) - Roger Varian

    From an excellent Hamdan family, the dam is a half sister to Champions Stakes placed Mawatheeq, 1000 Guineas winner Ghanaati and Oaks placed Rumoush, the last named has produced 3 group horses in Muntazah, Wadilsafa and Talaayeb. By top class US Turf sire Kittens Joy, sire of Hawkbill and Roaring Lion.

    By far my favourite colt from this crop, made his debut at Lingfield as 3/1 2nd fav despite being the apparent second string on jockey bookings, Crowley won the race at 11/2 on the other Hamdan runner Dawaam, who looked a nice type himself, well placed and showing a good turn of foot. Khuzaam was green in midfield and got checked on the turn, it took him a while to really get organised in the straight but he absolutely flew in the last 1.5f and would have inhaled the winner with a bit more ground.

    Looking at the top 2yo final 2f sectionals since they started recording 3 years ago, Khuzaam has the 5th best time, the interesting thing is the other 4 were all achieved off a significantly slower early pace, 3.4 seconds faster for 5f than the Group 3 class Masaar and 5.5+ seconds faster than the top 3. The fact that he was checked on the turn and green cost him a lot between the 3-2, but Ive no doubt he is capable of better as he finished with a ton in the tank. I think this was one of the best 2yo performances at the track in recent years. The 3rd placed horse Originaire was 5L clear of 4th and had the benefit of 2 previous runs, the latter a good 3rd in a very hot novice at Kempton behind Nivaldo and Silent Hunter who ill likely talk more about.

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    He went to Kempton next and sent off at 4/7, away sharply and handy off a very decent pace for the level, he challenged wide round the final bend and took Crowley to the lead at the two pole without being asked. I felt he could have settled better during the race but he quickened up well when asked and started to pull away. There happened to be another smart animal in the race, Stoutes Frankel colt Deal A Dollar, who went with him but was comfortably held all the way hands and heels. The two of them pulled 7L clear of the 3rd, Gosdens Fightwithme who won easily off 79 next time out. The 5th Target Zone went on to win over C+D and is now rated 96, the 6th won his only subsequent race and is rated 82.

    Khuzaam has an entry in the Dante and 1m2 should be ideal for him, he could get 1m4 in time and ive been tempted by 3 figure prices for the Derby on the betfair but im not convinced the Derby is his race, the Tercentenary at Ascot is one of my favourite races and I think hes an ideal candidate for it. Deal A Dollar is well worth following as well and is on my list. I probably wont clutter the thread with all on my list but will do a few that I really like.
     
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  18. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    King Ottokar who I put up for the racing post last season at 20/1 and he ran no race, outclasses this field <yikes>

    A few disappointments although the betting certainly told the story that not many were wanted, Headman pulled his chance away, Space Blues travelled quite well but found nothing and the established Turgenev was well beaten. King Ottakar probably worth a shot at the Dante after that as he did look a really nice prospect last year and the best horse this trainer has ever had. Would expect to see Space Blues dropped to a mile although cant say he was only beaten for stamina, possibly flattered on debut by that slow pace against staying types but hes better than we saw today.
     
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  19. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Very poor from Space Blues. He pulled too hard early but seemed to get back into the race before being readily outpaced by the winner and others.

    The warning signs were there before the race for me because I thought the Godolphin colt looked disappointing in the paddock. He was far from the pick on looks and I thought Headman looked the paddock pick as a horse with physical scope.

    Space Blues drifted in the betting but he had opened at far too short a price and only mugs or virgins would have waded in at a shade of odds-on in places on the opening show. Likely to improve, he was priced as if he had already proved himself to be a fair bit superior to this field and that was madness.

    I wasted two quid on a Derby bet but the Godolphin team have wasted a lot more than that putting him in at Epsom and plenty to prove for Space Blues now.

    Turgenev was well backed today but I was never a fan of the Gosden colt last year. I thought he was a poor bet in the Futurity at Doncaster last season and he did very little for the form of the race won by Magna Grecia from Phoenix Of Spain. He's no Derby contender either.

    Headman looked the best stamp of a colt before the race but they could not give him away, right out to 9/1 and he seemed a typical, big, weak, Charlton horse who needs a lot more time. I have lost count of how many times Roger Charlton has said that one of his 2YO's will make a good 4YO and he's not a trainer for me, yet it seems he has a faithful, cult following and the best of luck to those waiting for the maestro to hit the Mother lode.

    King Ottokar had some fans after making a winning start to his career but he failed to fire in the Futurity. Trainer Charlie Fellowes has been in good form but I thought he had a lot to do to bounce back from the Doncaster Group 1.

    In the end, more negatives than positives. It wasn't a betting race for me at the odds, hence a tiny bet for the Derby just in case Space Blues was impressive. The times were really slow today but it looked like Space Blues didn't lose because of stamina issues. Charlie Appleby said after Masar won the Derby that he has trained more offspring of Dubawi than anyone else in the world and that he had noticed a tendency to sometimes "Lose" Dubawi progeny in the Spring but then see them come back strongly in the Summer. For me, the bigger worry is a lack of physical progession from two to three with Space Blues. I thought he was lacked the presence of a quality colt today.
     
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  20. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Adding: Nausha

    Trained by Roger Varian who had the first 2 fillies home yesterday in the Nell Gwyn, and I think this daughter of Kingman who won only race as a juvenile might be on a par at worse with her stable companions

    Has an entry at Kempton on Saturday
     
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