Fingal Bay's Target

[DanishPastry]

Anyone know which Cheltenham race is the likely target for Fingal Bay?

I'd initially thought that he looks best suited to the Neptune, and backed on betfair, only to see that he's shorter in price for the Albert Bartlett.

Odds are:
Albert Bartlett: 5.9
Neptune: 6.4
Supreme: 75

 

[rounders]

Surely not the Albert Bartlett - if it transpires that way i will be seriously disappointed. Without trying to sound too dramatic i'd compare aiming to win the Albert Bartlett with Manchester United aiming to win the Europa League as opposed to the Premiership or Champions League. It is without doubt the lesser of the three races. Personally, I would expect him to be trained for the Neptune.

 

[OddDog]

rounders - both races are Grade 1 and both have exactly the same prize money, why is the Albert Bartlett less prestigeous?

I honestly think he could win either race at this stage, but it would obviously depend upon which other horses enter the picture over the coming months. To me he looks a true stayer, the way he finishes his races over 2m4f (particularly at Cheltenham) is most impressive. I would imagine he will be off chasing next season, what a prospect that will be. I'm sure Phillip Hobbs will be hoping to have a Gold Cup contender on his hands in a couple of years time.

 

[King Shergar]

I'd hardly Say the Neptune is a much stronger, or more prestigious race than the Albert Bartlett. Atleast the Albert Bartlett is over a championship distance, how many championship races are run over 2m4?

If I owned the horse I'd go for the Albert Bartlett, I just feel this horse is a very strong stayer, and the further the distance the more dominant he will be, and whilst he is no slouch, I'm still not convinced he has a great turn of foot, so he could be voulnerable to something with more pace, particularly if there's a lack of pace in the race, which has been the case in the Neptune, the last 2 seasons.

I think if he goes for the 3 miler, then he's a massive festival banker at this stage for me, and could be worth getting stuck into for large amounts

 

[Zenyatta]

I agree with Shergy. He looks a banker in the Albert Bartlett and a strong fancy in the Neptune.

His forte is his stamina and that might leave him vulnerable in the Neptune to something with a bit more pace. The way he despatched Simonsig was most impressive though and he could easily win either race.

 

[Sir Barney Chuckles]

This ‘dilemma’ over which race Fingal Bay will go for is one of the reasons why betting on the Cheltenham Festival ante-post is these days so fraught with extra risk. Now that there are so many more races you can be by no means certain, in so many cases, of where a horse will run until the actual day of its race (especially so with novice hurdlers and novice chasers).

Its also a scenario that must have those bookie chappies rubbing their hands with glee as they can quote the same horse in up to half a dozen races, in some cases, well aware that come ‘judgement day’ he will only actual contest one of these!

 

[OddDog]

I remember last season some bookies were offering odds on a horse to win "any race" at the festival. Obviously at skinner odds than the individual race prices, but you are hedging your bets. Any such offers around this time?

 

[Zenyatta]

I remember last season some bookies were offering odds on a horse to win "any race" at the festival. Obviously at skinner odds than the individual race prices, but you are hedging your bets. Any such offers around this time?

I seem to remember some bookies quoting Peddlers Cross to win any Festival race at 4/1. I would think that would be long gone now!

There are probably selected others.

 

[King Shergar]

I'd lay you 4/1 Peddlers Cross to win any race at the festival

 

[Zenyatta]

I'd lay you 4/1 Peddlers Cross to win any race at the festival

Really?! It's slightly superfluous now considering he is all but certain to run in the Arkle, for which he is available at 4/1 anyway.

The extra security of having the possibility of other races (which are all very unlikely) is probably negated by the risk of not betting with a bookie!

 

[King Shergar]

Well they have to go for the Arkle, or they would look like they were running scared. Al Ferof has looked good, but I've not seen a more impressive chasing debut, than that of Sprinter Sacre the other day. Peddlers Cross will realy have his work cut out with him

 

[Zenyatta]

Sprinter Sacre looked good but I don't understand all the excitement about it.

For some reason people seem to get carried away with 'spectacular jumps' when a horse is fired in long.

For my money, I would far rather have a round such as that shown by Peddlers Cross (quick, economical, clever, etc) on his debut than that of Sprinter Sacre. Most horses can pick up long, but the hard thing is getting in close. They learn very little by being fired at fences, and it can go wrong too. They need to learn how to handle it but it isn't a route to a quick and efficient round.

Just watch Ruby riding a novice. He lets them get in close so they learn how to adjust.

Peddlers will eat Sprinter Sacre for breakfast.

 

[DanishPastry]

Hmm, so no word from the trainer then. Fair enough, shame - both the odds for the AB and the Neptune look attractive...but not if he might not turn up to one or other.

Re: Sprinter Sacre / Peddlers Cross, I think I agree - Peddlers put the nicer round of jumps in, although I saw nothing at all from Sprinter Sacre which suggests he won't be right up there in the Arkle. I'm looking forward to hearing them both race a bit more before March. Would currently side with Peddlers, but I really do think Sprinter Sacre has the potential to improve a lot. I'd fancy him over Al Ferof, despite the result in the Supreme - especially given Al Ferofs recent struggle against For Non Stop. I think that For Non Stop is a great contender and will go on to be a strong Chaser, but I think Peddlers would have shrugged him off for sure.