The opening day of Cheltenham next week is fascinating for a number of reasons but perhaps most so for its uniqueness of having 4 very short priced favourites â namely My Tent or Yours in the Supreme (11/8), Simonsig in the Arkle (4/7), Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle (5/4) and Quevega in the unimaginatively titled Mares Hurdle (2/5). Should one, or even none, of the above win its going to be very much âadvantage bookie chappieâ but if 3, or all of them, oblige the dear old punting punter will have the upper hand. Two out of four will lead, of course, to things being relatively even after day 1. It is, in fact, no exaggeration to say that punting policy for both camps, for the rest of the week, could very much depend on how these 4 horses fair. A further intriguing aspect is that the 4 are actually housed in just 2 stables â 2 stables who those bookie chappies think will dominate Cheltenham â namely Mr Henderson and Mr Mullinsâ. Any reverses will instantly lead to questions re the health of the rest of their string. But how many of these 4 do you think will oblige in 8 days hence?!? Iâll say 2. Both incidentally trained by the forumâs favourite trainer, Mr Henderson. That is My Tent or Yours and Simonsig. Both look very, very solid and in all honesty a class apart from their rivals. Meanwhile, I just canât have Hurricane Fly in the Champion and believe that both Grandouet and Zarkander have much stronger claims and think that old Anno Domini may finally get the better of Quevaga this time around.
Oh Barney - Quevega may lose on Tuesday but it will be because she falls over or refuses to race. I agree with Nass that the two shortest prices are the most solid options and I can't see them losing. Simonsig is more vulnerable purely because Overturn seems to be a sterner test than what Quevega is opposed by. There's no pace angle in the Champion Hurdle so i fail to see why the Hurricane won't be swinging on the bit 2 out. He stays as well or better than the rest of the field, it's just a matter of whether they can blunt his kick. MTOY seems beatable despite his run LTO. I'd go MTOY Lose Simonsig Win Hurricane Win Quevega Win.
My Tent Or Yours, 7/4 - will come up short, in what i think is to open a race to have the fav at 7/4... Simonsig, 4/6 - Will take some stopping with Overturn being the only opposition... Hurricane Fly, 2/1 - Its Zarkandar for me, but i wouldn't be surprised of the Fly did win this... Quevega, 8/15 - Wins... Simple as... A £1 Accy on all 4 coming in with PadPow returns £21.08... But i dont think all 4 will win, so its a no bet from me... Quevega + Simonsig Double pays £2.56 to the £1... That might be worth a little bet just to top up the funds, but i wouldn't go mad on it... Might put £20 towards it as more than likely these 2 will deffo come in...!!! Treble of Quevega + Simonsig + Fly returns £7.67 to the £1... Quevega + Simonsig + MTOY returns £7.03 to the £1... I think i will stick to the double thanks...
Quevega may have a valid rival this time around in the shape of Mr Henderson’s Une Artiste. She’s 2/2 at the course (including a win at last year’s Festival) and on a line through Alasi and Kentford Grey Lady doesn’t have the greatest amount to find with the Irish trained mare. I don’t think that the gap between them is that of 2/5 – 6/1 as those bookie chappies seem to believe. Interesting to see that on official chase ratings Simonsig is 5 pounds behind Overturn. Although if that gap remains after next Tuesday then I’m a Chinaman.
I really do feel that Overturn will out battle Simonsig next week Barney. The horse is all heart. Simonsig has only been in one battle when he took on Fingal Bay and lost. The hype around Simonsig reminds me of the hype around Noland in 2008.
I think that Simonsig is just about the more likely winner but it's closer than the prices suggest and as such Overturn represents the value. How's that for confusing. I said at the start of the year that I thought Overturn could achieve a higher mark over fences than he has over hurdles due to his gritty front running style. The emphasis is more on jumping than speed/turn of foot and think that's in his favour here. Any chink in Simonsig's jumping or willingness to get his head in front will be exposed by McCain's charge. Until recently I wouldn't here of defeat and I'm on Overturn at 7s so have enough interest in this race and am delighted with that price. That said, when you read about Tinkler and Geraghty saying they're not sure who's the better horse out of Simonsig or Sprinter Sacre it doesn't half plant a seed of doubt in the mind.
I feel I've got the Arkle market quite nicely cornered ................ I'm on Overturn at 8/1 antepost and have Simonsig in an antepost double with Sprinter Sacre at 9/4. I shouldn't really have anything else to worry about ............. famous last words, watch some fecking 33/1 shot win it
I was all over Overturn as well George but the more I look into this race, read the previews, comments etc the more I am convinced by the arguments for the favourite. Having said that Overturn is more attractively priced. Whether that is value or not I don't know.
Quevega will win, unbacked by me, but also unopposed. The others I will be taking on with Jezki, Countrywide Flame/Grandouet, and Overturn. In truth, they all have favourite's chances, but if MTOY and the Hurricane both win, I'm giving up the game.
That's a big shout, almost as big as I'm all for taking an opinion and backing your opinion to be right but both of these seem a tad excessive.
Lose, win, lose win MTOY is far too short in a race that has umpteen unexposed hotpots, for which I think River Maigue has a great chance. For me Simonsig wins, HF will get beaten and Quevega will win too.
MTOY - Has a great chance but this is the Supreme we are talking about and his price is too short now in my opinion. Simonsig - have heard good things about this horse but that is the problem no one has really seen him in many races. Overturn has finished 2nd in a Champion hurdle. Nicky Henderson thinks Simonsig is potentially one of his best ever that he has trained. Real dilemma this race. Hurricane Fly - been hugely impressed with this horse all season and think he will win. Zarkandar has always been one of my favourites but just don't think that an on form Hurricane Fly will be beaten Quevega - when she wins number 5 will she go for number 6?
Interesting debate it could certainly set the tone for the prices being chalked up moving onto the Wednesday and beyond. If, should a minor mircale happen and all 4 win, I'd be sure the bookmakers will be squeezing the prices for the others in the main races, but should all 4 fail the reverse is likely. MTOY is one I'm very sweet on and I'm on already. I honestly think unless there's a deluge (not an impossibility looking ahead) his gears should carry him home in front. Granted the ground doesn't turn up too soft, and he gets reasonable luck in running he wins. Simonsig has one horse to beat and I can't see him not obliging. Only warning about this is that being the Arkle and novice chasers going hell for leather it's not an impossibility for a horse going well to get brought down. Twist Magic and Don't Push it in the same Arkle were brought down together I think. Backed Hurricane this morning at Will Hills at 3s and whilst he's no certainty I think that's a generous price on him at this stage and with the rain forecast I think that's against Granduoet who is his main danger in my view. Not saying he'll win and wouldn't back him at the 5-4 Sir Barney has mentioned but he's a very good value 3-1 shot. Quevega wins unless she's brought down or some freak of nature occurs. So that probably equates to 3.5 winners from 4 in my view
