Gaz and I swapped a few lines yesterday on what I thought was pretty good value, about getting 5-1 AP riding a double. Gaz quite rightly pointed out that it was pretty poor value and recommended a trixie. AP rode three winners. We in Oz are starved of these exotic type bets, so in the interests of teaching us outsiders a thing or two, are they a good idea, or are a punter's chances of ending in front, better served by win bets only?
Cyc: Without doubt 99% of professional gamblers will tell you that 'singles' are the way ahead and i totally agree when gambling with the stakes they use. The reason i highlighted the 'trixie' was you pointed out 5/1 for a double, this could only be value IMO if Mr McCoy was riding 2 out of the 3 races with a short priced favourite and at the time of you posting they were about 4s, 7s and 3s. At those prices a trixie is a superb bet, only 4 bets doubles and a treble would have provided a very nice return, but an EW trixie would have been just as good in case he only placed on one. What i tend to do in cases like this is have a win trixie and also an EW treble. I have got this up a couple of times and it is a great feeling as you get the treble twice If the odds had been a tad higher i may have considered a 'patent' as then if you get 1 winner you can get your stake back, i always look at the mathematical side to gambling unless i've been drinking when everything goes out the window Finally when having 4 or 5 fancied selections i go for the following: 6 win Doubles and 4 EW trebles with an EW acca or 10 win doubles, 10 EW trebles and an ew acca. That's me, at the major meetings where there is value in abundance i sometimes do the L15 too.
GDC, If its good enough for Curley then it can be good enough for anyone. I like multiples at times when I think the races suits (ie strong fancies on a poor raceday) but singles are still the bread and butter.
Nass: Agreed but as i said it's the stakes they play with mate. My £20 and £30 quid bets can sometimes rack in a nice return
Personally Cyc, I think the trixies, patents and lucky 15 bets are for Saturday punters and I suspect therefore that unit stakes are generally low. I think the idea is to have a few chances of winning with the added (very) outside chance of a significant return. I doubt many professionals would touch these bets as they generally cover races on the same day.
Ron, its all about opinions and as I said if its good enough for Curley then I think it has its place!!
Thanks gents. They obviously have a place in racing, even among the more "professional" punters. I have the utmost respect for most of the folk on here, as their knowledge is first class. Like most of the advice given, I too think singles are the way to go. EW bets (something I often do in nap comps) are probably also not a good idea.
Cyc: In the big race handicaps where the bookies are going 5th and 6th places, anything over 12s must be worth an EW dabble if you fancy it?
Cyc, try searching for the Curley story - its a spat between him and betfred. Let me know what your view of it is.
It's really interesting Nass. I'll have a good read and post a piece in the next day or so. On the surface, it just looks a huge tangled mess.
Agree, totally that singles are the way to go when placing your bet and they are my preferred form of wagering. In my opinion the worse value bets are ‘Yankees’ and those ‘Lucky 15’s’. Why, because they are bookie chappie benefit and the way they are structured is totally against the punter. Why afterall do you think those bookie chappies are so keen to promte them?!? And it’s not because they want you to win big. Look at the evidence. In a yankee if 2 of out of your 4 selections win then 50% of your horses have won. Yet only 9% of your bets win (1/11). Meanwhile, if 3 of out of your 4 selections in a yankee win then 75% of your horses have won. Yet only 36% of your bets win (4/11). In a ’Lucky 15’ if 2 of out of your 4 selections win then 50% of your horses have won. Yet only 20% of your bets win (3/15). If 3 of out of your 4 selections win then 75% of your horses have won. Yet only 47% of your bets win (7/15). They ain’t for me, I’m afraid. However, am not adverse to having a double if I fancy a couple strongly. Afterall this type of bet see yours odds multiplied rather than simply added together. I also like to invest in a ‘Placepot’ at the bigger meetings as (a) the pots are usually very big and (b) there is a lot of ‘mug’ money in the pool.
