Ever Heard Of NUCOS? Well read this

I'm going to make a prediction. Do you want to know who will be challenging for the league title in a few years time, lets say the 2015/16 season?

Newcastle United.

Why? It's simple. NUCOS. What's that then? Well, it's a little formula I've come up with that stands for Newcastle Utd Cycle Of Success.

What this consist's of is a policy of only buying quality players ages 18-26, for a reasonable price, building a quality team with them, if a transfer bid of anything above £15mil at least comes in for one of these stars, then they sell the player, then bring in another 18-26 year old of similar quality for a fraction of the price.

What the above fits into perfectly is the soon to be realised UEFA financial fair play rules very, very nicely.

But why would Newcastle be challenging for the title? Well....

Man City - They will no doubt be up their, however the days of being able to spend £100mil on players will be over due to the UEFA FFR, unless they sell to pay for it. So the gulf shouldn't be as wide as you may think. Although they will no doubt be the big hitters.

Man Utd - Alex Ferguson will be gone by 2015/16, you would think. If not gone, then definitely over the hill. So a Man Utd without him is a totally different breed. They will be trying to create 'a legacy' by this stage and a transitional period will be in full swing. I'm sure they will be up their in the top 4, however, they will be what Arsenal are today. Also rans.

Chelsea - Similar to both of the above. Fair play rules means Abramovich will no longer be able to go out and buy a Torres, and that's even if he will still be their. Which I doubt. How bored will he be at not being able to flex his financial muscle as much as would like. Does a £15mil signing excite him? Doubtful.

Tottenham - Spurs are reliant on 'Arry at the moment. A lot. He will be a failed England manager at best or a has been who is in jail for financial misgivings at worst. Either way, he will be long gone as far as Spurs are concerned and will have slipped into Premier League also rans again.

Arsenal - Wenger will be gone. They're fans will be disillusioned. They wont be able to fill a stadium. If they do, it will be full of cynical boo-ers who talk long and hard about 'the invincible' days and how good they used to be. Too reliant on Wenger, not that they realise it.

Liverpool - Once Kenny has finally completed his mission of spending far too much money on players that dont make a difference to the team, they will be left in a bit of a shambles. The onwers will have probably cut their losses and went back to America. Leaving the club in a Uefa Financial Fair Play nightmare. They could be the first team to be banned from Europe due their spending. Either them or Man City....

Which leave the Toon. When NUFC have a good team, they have a good season. When they have momentum to go with it, they have a great season. By the time 2015 comes along they will be totally self-sufficient, will have a team to be proud of and have a transfer and scouting policy that many teams will be envious of. Plus, unlike all of the above they will not be reliant on one man. It's almost irrelevant who their manager will be as long as he isnt a total dunce (like Joe Kinnear for e.g.)

Let's look at the team now, that could be their still in 3 years time:

Tim Krul - He looks class now. In 3 years he will be 26 years old and one of, if not the best keeper in the league. Even if NUFC do sell him, then they will find themselves a Vorm for the fraction of the obscene fee a Real Madrid might pay for him.

Steven Taylor - In 3 years he will be Toon captain and England regular. Remember, Terry and Ferdinand will be long gone. He has finally fulfilled his potential this season. Watch him grow.

Davide Santon - In 3 years he will be in the Italy team with no doubts whatsoever. The next Maldini will be, well, the next Maldini. If a Milan or Inter bring him back to Italy, how much will the best Italian full back cost them? A lot.

Yohan Cabaye and Cheik Tiote - Name me a better centre midfield partnership in the league this year. Parker/Modric maybe. But as a partnership, they are the best. Both can tackle, pass, shoot, cross, create, work hard etc etc. They are immense now. In 3 years they will be 28 and 29. Rock solid. Once again, you wanna buy one? Get the gold plated cheque book out.

Hatem Ben Arfa - This boy is class. He is as talented as a David Silva and Juan Mata but without the 'Spanish' tag thats around these days. He has scored 3 goals and grabbed 2 assists in the 2 games he started in the past 7 games. Once Obertan is finally dispanded, watch this boy flourish. In 3 years he will be 27 and in the prime of his life. Cant wait.

Demba Ba - You've seen him. Best striker in the league? RVP has more goals, but can he dominate like this boy? Questionable. Once this contract release clause get's sorted, you want him? Bring a few a briefcases filled with rubies, diamonds and a Pharaohs precious gold. If NUFC do sell, they will find another Demba on a free transfer. Genius.

Are you starting to catch my drift?

NUFC have the stadium in place. The fans chomping at the bit. The players. The perfect financial policy. The untouchable scouting system.

As long as Mike Ashley doesn't f*ck up the perfectly laid plans he has put in place.....then you see where Newcastle will be after Fergie/Wenger/Abamovich/Redknapp are gone. When UEFA's Financial Fair Play rules are part of the course across the world of football. When big team's with big wallets can no longer just dominate buy buying countless players at a time but have to pick and choose carefully with one big signing per season that their spoilt fans will demand.....which will probably be a Newcastle player for £15mil plus, which they will replace with a 18 -26 year old of similar quality, for a fraction of the price. Or in other words; NUCOS.

The future's bright...it's black 'n' white.

 

I once saw a theory like this, but it was written in faeces on a public bathroom wall

 

.

 

Wishful thinking.

 

I didn't have any paper and the crystal meth was telling me write down my thoughts.

 

Oh dear, lets hope no fans from other clubs come over and see this

 

This theory is bollocks! Man Utd will replace fergie with an equally adpet manager, FFP only states that you cannot enter Europe if you fall out of their line. There is nothing stopping a team from going crazy, missing out on Europe for a couple of seasons and then cut their cloth accordingly to get back in, Arsenal and Chelsea will always be there or thereabouts. Arsenal replace Wenger with someone else, Chelsea can again just spunk money to get back in with a shout. We will probably be similar to Spurs. Nearly there but probably with good European pedigree

 

i cant believe you have put effort into this, i bet it probably took you an hour just to type it up

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2011/jul/08/manchester-city-deal-etihad-airways

And the owner of Man City is associated with Etihad.

If you shuffle some money around there are ways and means to bypass the FFP rules I'm afraid.

 

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Nostrabanus.

 

!!!

 

Lots would have to go right for this to be possible, think about QPR and other teams lower down in the leage with no chance of Europe for a season or two but willing to spend lots of money if they go to ManC etc. and buy good but over priced players to help them climb the table then that team is going to be able to spend that money plus profit on world class players.

All I can see happening is the second 11 not being as dominating as currently.

 

Nothing like a bit of pessmism and negativity from not606 members.

 

Didnt read to long. Sorry.

 

Tis a long un.

Where in North yorks u from?

 

I like your optimism Bano! I too think that the new ruling has been taken into account by Ashley when putting together the 5 year plan, and we will probably benefit greatly from his thinking. Though as stated above for us to be in the position you are forecasting a lot would have to go right, there isn't a chance of us winning the title unless we spend lots of money with a crazy new owner. Same with every other club. I can see where you are coming from though, decent article .

 

The more recent stuff about the FFP is making me less sure it will sort out the big spenders. I thought if a club goes over the spending limit, they wont be allowed in Europe. Gradually the statements are getting softer and softer.

- They will be banned from Europe.
- They will suffer penalties and possibly a ban from Europe.
- They may suffer penalties and in extreme cases, be banned from Europe.

I really doubt their balls and can fully imagine Man City spending £200m and just starting their Champions League campaign with a 2 point penalty or something.

In saying that, I still think we'll win the league in 2015/16.

 

lol

 

tbf i thought about this newcastle being cyclical thing a while ago on a much larger scale. when i noticed that we always do poorer towards the end of decades ever since we had our last success at the end of one in 1969 (since 69 the ends of the decades go like this: relegated 2009, were in relegation places before sbr took the reigns in 99, relegated 89, relegated 78)

i also noticed we tend to get promoted at the beginning of the next decade and go on a bit of a buoyed run usually with a talisman and culminating in some great times (84 promotion with keegan, 93 promotion keegan - challenging for league 95/96/97, robson getting us into champions league places 03/04)


but eventually it turns to ****, we usually sell our youngsters and slip back down by the end of the decade

so the cycle has went like this:


69 fairs cup win
CYCLE STARTS
**** time and relegated 78
rise again and promoted 84
**** time and relegated 89
rise again and promoted 93
good times had by all 95-97
**** times and near relegation 99
rise again and bobby gets us up there 2002
good times had by all 2003-04
**** times and relegated 2009
rise again and promoted 2010
good times had by all 2011- ?