OK -so while the close season persists I wonder if the EU debate will foster as much interest as the Scottish referendum did. Oddly, though it is arguably more important to more people I have a feeling it won't. There was a piece on the lunchtime news and it made me re-run it as I did not think I could have heard correctly. An SNP MP was arguing that to succeed in taking us out of the EU there should be a "NO" vote in all four countries. Can anyone else believe that? So if England, Wales and Northern Ireland all voted to leave but the Scots voted to stay they think we should not be able to pull out. Apart from being illogical as we went in as the UK so will stay or leave as such it is pure hypocrisy on the part of SNP who would have taken Scotland out of the Union on a vote in Scotland alone - the rest of the UK were not even considered as to what they wanted. Despite only UKIP and a lesser part of the Conservatives being in favour of withdrawal I feel when the vote comes it will be closer than many expect.
Hmmm - this could go well! Personally I want us to stay in but am far from confident this will be the case. Certainly a lot of people I know will be voting to leave and, in general, it is for one reason only i.e. immigration. I'm not looking forward to it that's for sure... And for the record I am not for one minute saying i believe that everyone voting yes is doing it because they are anti immigration. I know others have concerns about the influence of the EU and think it's gone too far beyond just a trading bloc for their liking and I fully respect that.
Despite the many faults and shortcomings of the EU I am of the opinion that it is a necessity to stay in. There are many multi national firms with their foothold in the EU being the UK. Leave and they will pull out as their goods will be taxed out of the European market. Nissan and Honda are two that immediately spring to mind many others would follow suit. Personally I think it would be disastrous to leave.
The UK is increasingly becoming isolated within the EU by the countries seeking ever closer political and financial union within the Euro group.. They particularly would like to reduce the dominance of London as the main financial centre. Unless we can secure the necessary ongoing relief from the worst of the effects of closer integration then the UK should leave. I do not believe the germans would like trade barriers or tariffs to effect their exports to the UK.
I am generally driven in politics by economics - a sound economy with reasonable growth and controlled inflation is generally good. With a strong economy you can then do the good social bits. On that basis I am sure staying in the EU is better for Britain. However I do not like the fact that as the EU becomes more of a political union it does so without proper safeguards for "state" rights. It is developing towards a full United States of Europe but does not seem prepared to leave as much as possible back in the hands of individual countries. A lot of economic matters, as well as legal and social can be allowed to vary within a super state without too much problem The EU does not seem to be considering that. It is similar to Scotland within the UK - the ship is being driven by others - especially Germany so their interests become paramount. Comparethe UK where England is in the driving seat - and the Scots rightly want a fair crack at the whip on matters that mostly affect them. At the moment I am on the fence and will be interested to see if Cameron really does try to get material changes or just sops to his right wing. Unfortunately I suspect that immigration will play a massive part in the debate with UKIP driving prejudice as far as they can.
If the UK left it would be a disaster for the millions of ex-pats living within the EU. I didn't vote on principle in the national election, but you can be sure I will register and vote in the referendum.
Is this something that could make or break Cameron's reign - looks like he might have a few dissenters in his own party.
I have plenty of reservations on Europe but leaving the EU would be a complete disaster for the country. Unfortunately this is the perfect example of why I think referendums are a terrible political device. I have no confidence that the majority of voters will have any idea as to the intricacies of what we are tied into economically with Europe and it will come down to an 'I don't like Europe' attitude rather than what is actually more beneficial.
Where the British people are on a hiding to nothing is the portrayal of the EU buy our rabidly anti-EU press; all are quite happy to demonise the organisation, but not report its successes. Where I am at a loss is with the idea that in 1971 we signed up, through a referendum vote, to join the EEC - and by default leave EFTA, and somehow the whole concept of the EEC has been usurped by the EU to form a federal republic of sorts. Basically we voted on leaving a smaller trading partnership and joining a bigger one. I appreciate that to make the bigger trading bloc even stronger there needs to some bring together of process and practice so all the constituent parts are moving in the same direction and, hopefully, at the same speed. A lot of what has happened since makes sense, a common currency for example, then the individual parts will need to commonise fiscal policies to keep the value of the common currency at a standard throught the EU. So this leads to common taxation policies, common government spending policies, or better still centralised tax gathering and spending. Although you don't need the common currency to get all the nations pulling in the same direction and following the same principles. The drawback is which economic model do you use, and do you allow the budget to become so complex and corrupt that the organisatin's own financial authority cannot sign it off? Greece and Germany will neve see eye to eye as France and Britain. I would vote to stay in a trading partnership, as things were, but I would vote against closer political union. We need Europe, as Europe needs us, but does Europe really want to be a huge single state? The politicians want a large super state, but what of the man or woman in the street, a lovely gravy train for those on it, but what about those who are not. The US of A works as they have a common language, even if the Hispanic population is growing and changing the demographic, and a common currency and has had for a long time. Just how many languages are spoken in Europe and which will dominate, and as to the Euro, it is only 14 years ols and is still having growing pains. The language issue WILL rear its head sooner or later, the smaller nations will lose out and English will probably dominate due to the influence of North America, but in the long run will it. The French do seem to want to use French, only natural and certainly British politicians are only too happy to bastardise it given half a chance, after all French does seem to be the language of diplomacy, in our governments eyes, and why are all the international organisations so keen to have French titles. Then there is Germany, would they want a German speaking entity? If only we could roll the clock back to 1971, but develop into a fitter leaner trading partnership, without hte baggage the EU now carries.
I hope that the actual facts come out and that people do not vote on heresay and on what they want to believe. There are 2.3 million British people living in other EU countries - the number of EU citizens in Britain is only just higher 2.4 or so. The numbers of those who are actually claiming benefits of any sort is also much lower than is generally believed - and is far lower, proportionally, than for the non EU foreign population in Britain. This does not appear to indicate that Britain has a 'problem' with immigration. The same goes for things like ECHR which is influenced by Britain's membership of the council of Europe and has nothing to do with the EU - although most people don't realize this. I very much want Britain to stay in the EU - but, I don't want to see Europe weakening its conditions of membership to the point where London can continue under special conditions, meaning it can permanently avoid things like the finance tax (Tobin Tax), or act as a kind of tax haven. Britain must realize that it cannot nitpick on membership ie. pick out the things which it wants, TTIP (yuk), access to markets etc. and reject the rest. Germany would prefer that Britain remains a member because it is the fifth largest export market for them - but, if they are prepared to use trade sanctions against Russia (which is a more important trade partner for them than the UK) then they would also be prepared for a British exit if necessary. The reason why the Germans want Britain to remain is more emotional - they actually like us !
If Britain votes to leave and Scotland votes to stay then the Scots should simply ditch the rest of the UK. without a further referendum and with immediate notice - and good luck to them. Europe would welcome a 'willing' Scotland under those circumstances.
I am not obliged to ask for your permission before making statements on here ! - I did not say that Scotland would do this only that they should because they would be justified in doing so. As would Cornwall, Ulster or any other area in receipt of 'European' money.
Superhorns. I do not think that there is a single place that you will find a definite answer to your question, but at the time of the Scottish referendum it was quite clear that the French would have accepted Scotland under certain conditions to be a separate nation, although I doubt they would have been acceptable to the SNP. What held them back from speaking too loudly was the thought of more autonomy for some of the French regions.
I questioned the 'willingness' of Europe to accept an independent Scotland. It is accepted that Scotland would have a £6billion black hole in their finances if they left anytime soon. Are Europe willing to take on their debts? Salmond/ SNP has already threatened to renege on their part of the debt, I doubt if many organisations will be queuing up to lend them money.
France is not Europe, their influence has declined within the EU over the years. Spain has already put on record they would block Scotland's application. Other nations would also object for anti separatist reasons. There only has to be one country against it to prevent it happening.
Your questioning is valid and there is no definite answer here. Had Scotland voted to leave the UK last year then they would have had a long wait for EU membership - but nobody had catagorically ruled it out, even though Europe did not want the UK to break up. If the UK pulled out first then a Scottish application may be treated even more sympathetically. Up to now the only whispers against Scottish membership have come from countries which also have a problem with separatism ie. France, Spain and Belgium - nobody has mentioned Scotland's finances, but the country's potential makes it a healthy risk
