There's effectively 2 markets which now operate in this time of 'Early Prices' on all races going up the afternoon before racing. Pretty much all bookmakers, without exception, now price up the next days racing as soon as that days has ended. What I've noticed quite often is you'll see horses, normally favourites obviously, get very quickly heavily backed and a general price shortening across all the bookies happens that evening. The next day you'll find the market will have settled a degree, and often the horse who seemingly was really well supported tends to drift slightly, but not as big as it's biggest price the previous evening. Then on course you will see lo and behold, the same horse opens up and takes a walk in the market.... Usually these horses get beat. Townshend, who I backed on Friday evening was a good example. Heavily punted Friday night, easy enough to back on Saturday then a rancid drift on course. It ended a well beaten 4th. A similar story today was Dont Touch It in the Naas Grade 2, thankfully this one didn't carry the Beefy pounds! Why does this happen? Clearly with the exchanges people like to arb and take the early 5/2, lay off 5/4 and have a small free bet. This is a factor and one of the main impacts the exchanges have had. My general rule of thumb and I've said it on here before, is I place much more emphasis on the late, or the 'on course money', than the early price contractions. Especially from the bigger yards. If I've backed one the night before and it drifts on course, I'd be of the opinion to lay off or cash in your bet. The late money usually tells the story, the early money usually means little. Thoughts?
The late money obviously sees how the horse looks in the parade ring etc. I've often backed a Saturday horse based on a Friday evening "blue on oddschecker" and when you see the fecker on telly its carrying more condition than P. Nicholls
My view doesn't count for much as I don't bet but, I like to decide which horse has the best chance of winning, regardless of price. If the early price looks too generous then that has to be the time to back it. If it looks to skinny then wait to see if a better price is available on the day. I wouldn't back a horse just because there was money for it. However if there was heavy late support for a horse, against my selection, I might consider backing it as an insurance if I could make a profit whichever one won.
Yeah that's it Oddy, what I'm meaning is it's often the best backed night before horses who drift the most. Is it just 'arbing'?
Dunno mate, but what I have often observed on the all weather (when desperate enough to watch it) is that late money really does speak. So often you see a horse go 7/4 - 13/8 - 6/4 - 11-8 - 5/4 in the 5 minutes before the off and they rarely get beat. The evening before stuff we really should learn to ignore ................... often very unreliable e.g. Flemenstar Friday evening blue on oddschecker, ran like a drain. Must remind myself to ignore that.
mainly guessers bet the night before and a couple of hundred can get a 2/1 shot shortened and usually informed money is late when their is liquidity in the betfair market
I find majority of very late money for horses especially in the AW (which I do occasionally watch ( don't back many Tho) but is often a fake market or a lot of fake money impacts the prices and cause a domino effect what I mean is people back the horse coz of its price shortening so people jump on the band wagon which causes the price to shorten again and again majority of them get beat !!
Can someone explain to me the purpose of putting @followed by a user name please. All it does is take you to the user's profile summary
i count myself as a guesser as well, wasnt an insult, just saying the people who are not guessing go in late when there is liquidity whether its to back or lay
backed him twice this season, not today, off the jumps till cheltenham, Mala Beach was the icing on a great Saturday
I wanted to put up Fils Anges 13/2 on Thursday but I had been waiting on it for over a year and didnt want to put the haunters on it will be back for the flat obviously with my 100% classic winner producing 3yo's to follow
I'd noticed it used in General Chat a while back when I was having a look in. I'd have thought it'd trigger a notification in the same way a 'like' does, but that's simply a guess. If it didnt, it's an absolutely pointless thing to do
