Diamond Harry - King George?

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OddDog

OddDog

Mild mannered janitor
Staff member
Jun 2, 2011
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Berlin, Germany
Just been reading an interview with Nick Williams on Sporting Life where he reports Diamond Harry to be not quite as well as this time last year (when he went on to take the Hennessey) and admitting he is a much better horse on a flat track (citing Haydock and Newbury). Looking back at his career he has only ever run left-handed (Haydock, Newbury, Cheltenham and Uttoxeter) and I do remember he had a tendency to jink to his left sometimes over hurdles. However, having just watched his Hennessey victory again he jumped straight and true and up with the pace, which is exactly what is required to win a King George. Most fiorms have him around the 20/1 mark for the Boxing Day showpiece but 67 is available on Betfair.

Does anyone know whether he is likely to take up his entry for the King George, given that he has never run right-handed? Searching back through news stories I can't find anything to suggest he has to go left-handed. On official ratings he is some 15-ish lbs below Long Run but obviously hasn't run since the Hennessey so it is difficult to gauge how he might have come on since that run.

Any thoughts??
 
Oddy, I've been looking at Diamond Harry a lot as I thought his Hennessey win was pretty good, doing some research as a possible candidate for 'Under The Spotlight'. However, like you, I'm not entirely clear on his plans for the season, despite looking for all sorts of articles. I think they should try him in the King George to see if he's up to that level. Certainly a potential welcome addition into such races.
 
I am finding it very diffulcult to look past Long Run- I know we havnt seen any of the horses yet, but if Long Run carries on improving like he did last year, he will go the season unbeaten! Abit early to say I know but hopefully we will witness another Great in Long Run. But if anyone is to give Long Run a run for his race I cant see it being Diamond Harry he is a true jumper but as I said if anyone is to give him a run for his money I can see it being Captain Chris or maybe Weapons Amnesty if he runs in it
 
Diamond Harry won the Hennessy off bottom weight, yes he was impressive but he was getting almost 2 stone off Denman, and he beat Denman 15 lengths. I believe Denman ran to a similar level in the Gold Cup to me, and he went down 7 lengths to Long Run at level weights. I know Newbury and Cheltenham are very different, but I feel Denman produces his best at both. So looking at that you would have to say Diamond Harry has a heck of alot to find with the likes of Long Run. Long Run is also 2 years younger, so open to more improvement, and an even better horse around Kempton. Personally I don't believe Diamond Harry is good enough to run to the Level Long Run ran to in the KG last season. He would also have to take on another champion in Master Minded, who looks likely to improve alot for a step up to 3 miles.

If you are following Diamond Harry, you want to get your money on first time out, he only ever runs well when fresh, though there doesnt seem to be any easy races, if he goes for the Hennessy, he will have to carry a proper weight this time, and the Betfair Chase is looking tricky, with Long Run making his seasonal debut there. Maybe Nick Williams might send him over to Ireland for the Irish Champion Chase at Down Royal, that's usually abit of an egg and spoon race, though it may not be this year, with all the classy novice chasers in Ireland from last season, also likely to take there chance, the likes of Noble's Prince, Quito De La Roque and Bostons Angel would probably have a crack at that, and I've heard that Denman may run in that also, so its not going to be easy for Diamond Harry wherever he goes.

As for the King George it would probably be wise to wait until you know there being targeted at the race before you make assumptions, the only 2 I feel are definates all being well are Long Run and Master Minded, the rest is anyone's guess, though I realy hope alot of last years top novices show up, particularly Noble Prince and Wishful Thinking as I feel they could be the ones to give Long Run the biggest test :biggrin:
 
I assume you mean the JN Wine Champion Chase at Down Royal KS? The race that Kauto has won a couple of times?

Denman goes to the Lexus over Christmas and then on to the Gold Cup.
 
Diamond Harry is a good horse, but he's a stayer and I can't see him having the required speed to win a King George.
The race is littered with 2m specialists running well so I'm looking at Master Minded as a potential ante post wager, Captain Chris is another that interests me.
No reason why these horses can't be aimed at the KG then revert back to shorter distances at Cheltenham.
 
To me it's clear the horse needs to be campaigned in graded company this season - I'd hate to see him lumping round top weights in handicaps as I think he is better than that. I know the trainer is very patient (even cautious?) with the horse and he will be difficult to place - that's why I don't understand the left-handed thing. Williams is talking about starting in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby (also left-handed) or maybe waiting for something in November. If his first race goes well I would like to see him have a crack at the King George then maybe the Aon Chase at Newbury, miss Cheltenham and go for the Aintree Bowl.
 
Grizzly.....I personally don't buy into the myth, that you don't need to stay to win the KG. Look at Long Run last season, he didn't have the pace for the Paddy Power Gold Cup over 2m4, but when they upped him to 3 miles he improved alot. Even in the Gold Cup he was outpaced and didn't look like he was going to get to KS and Denman, and it was only when stamina started to kick in that he stayed on past them. So hes not got alot of speed and he hacked up in the KG. Take 2 years ago when KS hosed up, look how early everything else was off the bridle, thanks to Nacarat who set a ferocious gallop. Kauto Star didnt win that race by so far because he had more speed than everything else, he won it because he was the only horse capable of sustaining the gallop Nacarat set to the line.*

If your thinking about backing Captain Chris, I'd check out his form again. He has had 5 starts on ground with soft in the description, and on 4 of those occasions he has lost. The Only time he won was in a 3 runner Novice Chase at Kempton,*3 weeks before the festival, where *the 133 rated Adams Island was 2nd. He was hammered by Ghizao twice, on the soft, one of those he was getting 10 pounds from Ghizao, *and Silviniaco Conti hammered him in a hurdles race on the soft.*

I personally would not touch Captain Chris if soft is in the going description, and id be amazed if the ground isn't soft at Kempton on boxing day.*

At Cheltenham the ground was as fast as it's been for years at the festival, hence all the fast times, these are the sort of conditions Captain Chris requires to be seen at his best. So I wouldn't touch Captain Chris until the spring, and even then I would only consider backing him if the going is good or better :biggrin:*
 
Shergar

We all have our views but I refuse to believe that the likes of Teeton Mill and Edredon Bleu were blessed with natural stamina when winning their King Georges, and when the likes of Tuitchev and Azertuip are good enough to get placed in the race that any of these can be considered 'stayers'.
Given the Gold Cup is just about a quarter of a mile longer than the King George you would have thought the the above horses would have been considered strong enough to have taken this route instead of 3 of them being regular features in the Champion Chase.

Master Minded I think has a real chance whatever the ground, Captain Chris needs things to fall into place but the improvement he showed last term suggests he could make the transition IMO.
Long Run has shown he stays (and stamina should improve with age) but he may also get to a point where a Kempton 3 miles could be a little sharp for him.
 
Oddy......So Diamond Harry is apparently to good to carry top weight in a handicap?*

That is a ridiculous statement to say the least, more like he isn't good enough to carry top weight in a handicap. he is currently rated 172 do you realy believe he could win a Hennessy off a mark of 172, you, I and everyone else knows he couldn't. Denman a horse who has won a Gold Cup and finished runner up in 3 Gold Cups, was all out to win off 174. *Denman could only manage 3rd off 182, and to have won the race he would have had to have ran to a mark of 200. Which would have won every single Gold Cup bar the ones Arkle won, according to the handicapper.*

Denman recieved the 2nd highest rating of last season only behind Long Runs Gold Cup, for his effort of 3rd in the Hennessy. Only great horse's win handicaps off marks above 170, particularly the Hennessy as its usually full of unexposed 2nd season chasers who are alot better than there marks suggest, hence Diamond Harry who ended up 16 pounds above his rating in last seasons Hennessy.*

Believe you me if Nick Williams felt Diamond Harry could win a 2nd Hennessy off 172 he would have the horse in the race, as he knows it is a far greater achievement, than winning the Betfair Chase, or Irish Champion Chase:biggrin:*
 
"eee it wer reight good in t'good old days when Arkle lumped 17 stone round wi 1 leg tied behind his back ................... " <laugh>

Whatever they may have been in previous generations, handicap chases today are for those who aren't good enough to win graded races.
 
Oddog......Can you answer me one question? If Long Run was to line up in the Hennessy instead of the Betfair Chase, would he face a tougher or easier challenge? :biggrin:
 
I do know where you're going with this, but as Cyclonic once famously said, "if you put enough weight on Usain Bolt's back I'd beat him over 100m"
 
Ok as your wriggling, we will go back to last years Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander, he made his seasonal debut in the Betfair Chase and won, do you believe he would have won last years Hennessy had he lined up in that? :biggrin:
 
King Shergar said:
Grizzly.....I personally don't buy into the myth, that you don't need to stay to win the KG. Look at Long Run last season, he didn't have the pace for the Paddy Power Gold Cup over 2m4, but when they upped him to 3 miles he improved alot. Even in the Gold Cup he was outpaced and didn't look like he was going to get to KS and Denman, and it was only when stamina started to kick in that he stayed on past them. So hes not got alot of speed and he hacked up in the KG.
Click to expand...

This is exactly why i think it might pay to oppose Long Run in the King George. I think he is a very strong favourite for the Gold Cup but i am less keen on his chances in the King George. A point to note is that before the Gold Cup he was touted as a horse that didn't like Cheltenham. I have never agreed with this argument, but feel that it might influence people still so that they might suggest 'he will be even better round Kempton'. I think he may be vulnerable to a horse with a touch more pace. That horse might be Master Minded if he stays, that horse might be Captain Chris if the ground is decent or it might be something else.

I think Captain Chris has a massive chance in the King George if the ground is reasonable. I appreciate he is better in the spring on genuine good ground but i would still not write him off for the Kempton showpiece. The 3m round a speedy flat track will suit him perfectly, especially as it is right handed. The course and distance should therefore be right up his street and all that is required is the ground to fall right.

The going for the last 5 King George's has been G/S on 4 years, and Good on one. It is therefore not beyond the realms of possbility that it might fall in his favour. If it does he must surely go close.
 
Zenyatta.....If the KG was run on good ground, then I'd agree with you that Long Run could be worth opposing. I believe Long Run is an out and out stayer, and the more testing the going the more dominant he will be. I'm not so sure he would have won last seasons Gold Cup, had the race been over just 3 miles as he looked to be struggling at the top of the hill, it was only in the final couple of fourlongs that he started to close down Denman and KS. So while I think Long Run would still be the one to beat in the KG, he would be worth opposing at an odds on price if the going was good.

If the going has soft in the description, which it more than likely will at that time of year, then I realy can't see anything getting near him, the way he ran at Kempton last season doesn't give his rivals much hope, he galloped to the line aswell as any KG winner I've seen, he was full of running, and that performance made me realise what a strong stayer he is, and that the Gold Cup trip wouldn't be an issue.

Obviously we all know Captain Chris is high class, but we agree that he needs his ground, so maybe you, or anyone else thinking of backing him ante post should wait until nearer the time, when you know the going, before investing any money. I still feel you will get a good price about the Arkle winner, as most of the attention will be on Long Run and Master Minded:biggrin:
 
King Shergar said:
Ok as your wriggling, we will go back to last years Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander, he made his seasonal debut in the Betfair Chase and won, do you believe he would have won last years Hennessy had he lined up in that? :biggrin:
Click to expand...

Of course not. But then again Diamond Harry wouldn't have won the Betfair (nor Denman for that matter). Next.
 
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