Morning all looks like a big day with some to overcome the hype in the derby. I do have a few tips for you today and we will see if I can transfer my tipping skills from the old 606 forum where from all my tips this year you would have been about 30 points ahead! So here goes with my first post⦠There are a few that I like but not sure that all of these are worth a bet. Epsom, Premio Loco and St Moritz, Falasteen, fathom five, Seville, Life and Soul, fireback. Doncaster, Sunraider. Musselburgh, Racy. Epsom 3:15 Around Epsom I always like to see horses with course form and with Falasteen you have the guarantee that he handles the track after his impressive win which was a fast time! The 5F here usually suits front runners also which is another +. Captain dune is another I like as looking at it basically he is a group horse in a handicap. He also was touched off in the race in 2009. However with so many horses that like to make it, I would be looking to Fathom Five as he comes from of the pace and has a good record at the track. 4:00 The derby never seems to offer much value but Seville looks one to be worth backing as he seems to fit the bill best. The Dante was a weird race and Charlton house and Sevilleâs runs looked as though there is lots of improvement to come and I believe that Seville will show more as Charlton had a set back and Seville seems to be the better sort than anything else here. Recital could not stay and may not have Fallon. 4:50 life and soul is the one here who looks like he is off an alright mark and showed he is still acting well at Newmarket with an encouraging effort behind Times up. He acts on the track and yesterday there were quite a few coming from off the pace and there seems like there will be a good gallop with Fox Hunt ect. He also got within 2 lengths of Dandino last year which looks very good! Bourne is one that is bound to improve for the step up in trip but I donât trust fillies and I donât think she is well enough balanced for the track. 5:25 Fireback is a horse I have liked since he won at Newmarket last year and I think that now he is down to a winnable mark. The field doesnât look that good either. Hopefully he will have improved and strengthened from 3 to 4 and can show his superiority! Doncaster 2:50 The ground may be a bit firm for Sunraider and being rank outsider he is not expected to win however I have followed him and he has some very good form lines. I think he will be better at 6 also but the yard must rate him as they ran him in the Victoria Cup. This kind of track will suit also and I just would be so annoyed if I didnât back him here in an average looking race. Musselburgh 3:40 Racy looks like the right horse for this having come out of an excellent run at York when not beaten far at all, and the new trainer seems to have started a good relationship with her. Doctor parks is another that looks good here but I prefer Racy as she is better of on the figures. I donât like backing fillies but she is an exception. So I Advise Epsom 3:15 Falesteen 1 point win 7-1 Fathom Five 1 point win 8-1 4:00 Seville 1 point win 6-1 4:50 Life and Soul 1 point win 6-1 5:25 Fireback 1 point win 9-1 Doncaster 2:50 Sunraider 0.25 point EW 33-1 Musselburgh 3:40 Racy 1 point win 4-1 Good luck Aver
I wouldn't have gone with Seville. I was at the Dante and Carlton House really was impressive that day and looked mature the way he went for the gap when Ryan asked him. Given that Workforce was the first horse EVER to lose in the Dante and then win the Derby I think that history was unlikely to repeat itself with Seville. I think that CH was the right favourite (Queen or no Queen) and it would have been three in a line at the tape if he hadn't had such a rough race. Young O'brien was presumably trying to make it a proper test (unlike the Dante) to maximise Seville's chances. In the event, his mount looked a good horse. Maybe he was trying to do what Murtagh did in the Oaks (masterful). Today the winner's speed from last to first in the final furlong was devestating. If he had been up with them after Tattenham corner and then got switched on he might have streaked away like Shergar. A messy and strange race but you do just have to marvel at that winner. Looking forward to seeing him in the Arc. Meanwhile - Native Khan was as genuine as ever. I have a sneaky for him in the Leger if he runs. 50/1 at present.... Tomorrow, in France - Casamento for me. The next best of the 2 year olds after Frankel last term. He has to have his day sometime. PS-Good old Frankie on Friday. I had a tenner each way on Izzi Top!
