Dante Stakes York Thursday 16th May

There are 12 entered in the Dante at York on Thursday but I feel a few may defect. My instinct was to just go with Too Darn Hot at 7/4 but I don't have access to the firms offering those odds, so had to settle for 6/4.

Is 6/4 value then?

Looking at the race Aidan O'Brien has Japan entered but the colt who seemed to attract the money for the Derby over the Winter has since been joined by several of his stablemates at around the 7/1 mark and also passed by the dark horse Sir Dragonet, who may just be the one to disprove the notion that colts need to race at 2YO in order to win a Derby. My bigger concern with Japan is that the trainer has kept chopping and changing the colt's intended prep race and will he even turn up at York this week?

Line Of Duty has been in the Derby frame since winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile. It's not a race that I like from a trends point of view but that is yet to be seen. He was going to take in the Guineas as a starting point but he now comes here with the background that he will be Godolphin's only Derby horse. They haven't had a lot of choice in that to be honest though. Space Blues was a flop and Al Hilalee ran like a drain in the 2000 Guineas. Appleby feels Line Of Duty is a good candidate but I am just a bit concerned on the stamina front and he does not seem to be attracting any money for the Dante.

One horse who is being backed for Thursday and the Derby itself is Roger Varian's Surfman. Surfman is a son of the sire of the moment Kingman, who landed his first Classic through Persian King in France on Sunday. Kingman also has the hugely exciting Calyx batting for him in the sprint races this season and many will be interested to see how Surfman performs in the Dante. Surfman ran a good third on debut last season before getting off the mark next time. He absolutely hacked up next time by 14 lengths but that was in a Newcastle all weather race that was Class 5 in grade and he was 1/8 Fav. The runner up was beaten even further next time and Surfman's official rating of 101 leaves him with plenty to find. It makes no sense to me that the Varian horse is as short as 7/2 when Line Of Duty is 7/1, yet rated 13 lbs higher.

Huge margin winners are for me the biggest cause of horses going off shorter than they should next time and Telecaster is another candidate for that catergory after romping home by 9 lengths at Windsor. The warning signs are there with Telecaster after the runner up to him there, Deal A Dollar, went to Newcastle and got turned over at odds of 1/8 Fav. Lightly raced and open to improvement but this is a huge step up from a Class 5 Novice at Windsor and he will be taking on the Champion 2YO from last season in Too Darn Hot. Telecaster has 25 lbs to find with Too Darn Hot on RPR and enough to find with some others to make him poor value in the Dante. I am not sure it's a good idea pitching Telecaster in here with such a lot to make up and little experience behind him.

Too Darn Hot missed the Guineas but he will be fit enough to run here. He probably won't improve much this year because he did so well last season. He is the clear form horse here though and his official rating is 15 lbs higher than second favourite Japan. If he has held his form from last year and stays the trip he surely wins this Dante. Longer term it will depend how he looks in the Dante. They have not ruled him out of the Derby but going back to a mile and the St James Palace is an option they are keeping open. Too Darn Hot is a complete opposite to Aidan's Sir Dragonet because he has speed, whereas the Ballydoyle colt stays really well. They say that if you have enough stamina assured for Epsom, then you probably have too much. A win for Too Darn Hot surely sees him regain favouritism for Epsom but much depends on style and context. The more immediate interest is in just winning the Dante. If I were offering odds I would go no bigger than Evens, so a reasonable bet at 6/4 looks worthwhile. I doubt the odds will be any bigger on Thursday and I reckon they may be a fair bit shorter.

3.00 York Thursday Too Darn Hot 6/4

Telecaster and Surfman would be my lays at the odds and Line Of Duty looks better value than them at 7/1.

 

Japan is very weak in the betting this evening. Surfman is generally on the drift as well. Bits of money for Line Of Duty but Too Darn Hot seems solid at a general 11/10 now.

A few front runners in the field, so the thinking might be that they will draw the stamina out of the favourite but will they get involved in a battle for the lead?

I have a feeling Nayef Road may outrun his odds and perhaps take one or two scalps from those priced way shorter than him. Permian won the Dante on his 10th start, having been third at Bath off 100 earlier in the season. Nayef Road has arguably done better than that one at this stage but this is a tough ask. However at 33/1 this son of Galileo is not going to cost a lot to have an interest in.

Small each way Nayef Road 33/1

 

Timeform Ratings


Not often you see a horse 14lb clear with a "p" at odds against. I should really take those odds of 11/10 but it would not surprise me at all if he got turned over. I don't think this will be easy for him. The fact that Frankie is on him is a strong indication that he thinks a lot of him. Just have this niggling doubt that he may not have trained on to the extent of some others. If they go a strong gallop he could be in trouble but we shall see. 14lb is a lot to (apparently) have in hand. However, I'm not sure why is rating is so high. He hasn't exactly set the turf alight with his times and it is difficult to assess how much faster he could have gone with stronger opposition. Very interesting.

 

Now generally 10/11 but Evs still available with B365. PP and Betfair

I can understand why Telecaster, Line of Duty and Japan are co second favs, but Not sure why Surfman is in there with them

 

Crikey. Just seen latest odds on TV and Surfman is now shorter than Japan. What is going on there?

A quick look at Surfman shows that he looks set to improve a bundle so who knows

 

So which one is going to get punted to ridiculous odds?

 

With Too Darn Hot going odds on I suspect there will be a search for one.

I think Telecaster could shorten and Nayef Road will definitely shorten from 33/1 to around 20/1 or less

 

You can get 40/1 on Nayef Road, so I've had another few quid each way.

Japan opened at 7/2 and is now 9/1 in places. Telecaster is fairly weak and not much faith in Line Of Duty.

Shocking drift on Japan, given that the stable have mopped up the trials but if you take away his Beresford win he has an awful maiden on heavy ground as his other success. Zero wins emerged from that maiden in 25 subsequent starts and in that respect he reminds me of Shogun, who had a very similar profile and was tried numerous times in races he seemed to have no chance of winning. Unsurprising he didn't win any of them.

 

Has a horse ever gone off bigger for the trial than their antepost price for the Derby? (At the time of the trial)

 

40/1 is a ridiculous price for Nayef Road. Surely he will outrun those odds

 

8 runners makes Japan a very tempting e/w bet at the prices, but I suppose that applies to all but the favourite. Wouldn't be backing Too Darn Hot at odds on, though he has every right to be short.

Japan e/w. ****it

 

Interesting that one bookie has him at 22/1 and one at 25/1

Edit: NR that is

Edit edit. Nayef Road (NR not a clever abbreviation)

 

Serious Derby horse to go that pace and stay on to beat the Champion 2yo, pedigree suggests hell get the 1m4 easily and clearly has the tactical speed but would want to be settling a bit better in the Derby, only his 3rd run so should improve again.

 

I think they went too fast for him

 

The only runner in there with the Timeform capital "P"

 

St James Palace next for Too Darn Hot

 

The Dante was run in almost identical time (0.14 secs faster in fact) than the 4yo filly La Ti Dah 35mins earlier at level weights. Sex allowance 3lb. WFA 14lbs, puts Telecaster about 11lbs superior to La Ti Dah. That might mean something to someone

 

Would any of the Obrien battalion have beaten TDH at 10f today? Not convinced.

This was always shaping up to be the best trial and I think its high level form, the front 2 4L clear of a good horse in Surfman and Japan. The top 2 are G1 horses and Telecaster is the ideal horse for the Derby, has the class to run in 10f G1s and the stamina for 12f. The fact that he will come on again for that first experience in an elite race further strengthens his case and I wouldnt be too concerned with the race only being 16 days away.

 

Chuffed to bits with that. Long been convinced about this formline and confidence vindicated today.

 

Apparently a bigger question is whether Castle Down Racing can afford the Supplementary Entry Fee. Maybe someone will cough it up, or offer to buy him