Good morning, everybody. Since no-one has started the Daily Thread, I thought Iâd better show willing. Todayâs jump racing comes from Chepstow and Warwick- with flat racing at Kempton and Nottingham. Since I have no tips/fancies today, Iâm going to leave that to others and make brief comments on other issues instead: Whip Issue. Probably the most ridiculous innovation I have ever seen in sport. How can you ask a jockey to ride- or live- in fear? Itâs like saying to a soldier in wartime....â Hereâs eight bullets, but you can only fire one per hour- or youâre court martialled! Nobodyâs bothered about the small matter of the soldierâs life between bullets. Starts of races. One of my pet hates. Watching Exeter races yesterday, I couldnât quite fathom all these narrow âdefilesâ before the horses access the racecourse proper. When they started running, they were âon the turn.â I just think many race starts are unbelievably incompetent. All that grass available and they canât seem to arrange the horses to walk in slowly âin a straight lineâ at a fair distance away from the tape. We even had an example of a false start yesterday -where the starter was looking at his shoes â whilst the three runners were trying to jump the tape. Number of races competed by horses. Looking at Menorahâs form yesterday, I noticed he ran only four times last season. It raises the question......Why are horses kept âin cotton woolâ nowadays? Are they less hardy than they used to be? Or do they offer singularly better performance by only running a few times each year? Have members any comments on the above issues- or any other topical and contentious matters?
Starts of races (NH). I don't know the stewards' arguments for this (probably safety) but I suspect some jockeys find it easier to just follow other horses rather than line up across the track. The minimum distance is 2 miles so it isn't too important to get a level start.
on the whip debate my 10cents worth. if people carry knifes people get stabbed and sometimes killed if people carry guns people get shot and sometimes killed if jockeys carry whips horses get whipped and sometimes hurt if you stop one you stop the other.
Number of races competed. I have no knowledge of early day training methods but I would suspect that the horses were more hardy. I doubt they were kept so much in boxes and spent more time in the field in a more natural environment (much better in terms of the horses' mentality and health). Also I suspect it is just the top horses that are kept in cotton wool and raced less frequently because they are trained specifically for the major prize money events and/or races that up their stud value. I could well be talking out of my back end here.
My view is that they should be guidelines and not rules set in stone. That would give stewards the ability to look at a horse and the jockeys actions and make a decision based on the specific scenario alongside the guidelines. i.e. if a horse is hit one or two more times than guidelines nothing happens. If a jock goes say 5-10 times over guidelines then thats more than just a miss count and the stewards look at it. Depending on the severity they could either be warned or if deemed serious banned. Previous cases all broguht into consideration. If a horse is flogged they can refer to the guidelines to form their punishment
APPRAISE I was never a great advocate of systems in the past, in some ways I always thought it removed the human element of assessing form. Actually to a certain extent it does, although if you devise the system yourself you’re probably putting a lot of your own personal criteria into it anyway, so I’m looking at it from a swings and roundabout angle in terms of that. Anyway I’ll cut to the chase, having researched my own system over a long period of time I believe the system I call APPRAISE can show long term profits. I have been piloting the system privately for a long period of time now and am willing to take the risk of sharing my selections on a daily basis for those who wish to follow the progress. I have never posted any APPRAISE selections in the past. It takes some work to get results and this will be the first time I’ve gone into the public domain with this project. I’m confident however that with this approach I can show some profit. Processed APPRAISE selections and staking plan will be posted on the daily thread and I will post November results at SP as a fair way of determining profit / loss. I will however continue to invest in the traditional methods of assessing form this is not the Holy Grail for me…. if it turns up a fair few winners good…. if not you cant knock a trier! Well some might but what the hell… APPRAISE selections for today:- 2.20 Chepstow – Sollim – about 11/10 4pts win 2.30 Nottingham – Sarrsar – about 9/4 2pts win 6.40 Kempton – Laaheb – about 5/4 2pts win
Afternoon all interesting post Ardent. Best of luck fella. Have always been interested in trying to develop my own system but have never even started one because I am lazy in the opener at Warwick (1.05) I am interested in AGAPANTHUS at around the 8/1 mark (BOG), the slight doubt for me is the fact that there is no gamble going on at the moment which is unusual for a Curley one if it is expected to win. At his best on the flat he was a 89 rated performer, and although he has not performed to that level for some time he could be really well handicapped now entering hurdling handicaps off a mark of 89. 8/1 is a fair enough E.W price so will hopefully run a place at least
Ardent . I am just on a good run at the moment due to being able to study the form - you will soon see a change in my results when I start being lazy again . Really like two of your system selections today but fancy King Torus at the prices at Nottingham.
2.30 King Torus Too big for its chances, and I can't resist backing him today. Whip use - Storm in a teacup. They will get over it. Start of races - one of the joys of NH racing for me is to see how different tactics can be employed even before the race has started. Starts in the UK are shambolic at times (Ascot being one of the worst) and it does need looking at in detail. Number of races - Cotton wool treatment does seem to be the norm, but its because everything is focussed on one big meeting. We lack a strong narrative to the NH season, and because of that we all look towards Cheltenham from the first fence jumped of the season.
A Barney Curler drifter dear me shouldn't have bothered more confident with MERRION SQUARE at Chepstow -Nicholls loves to win this race and has drifted out to 11/4
oh and at last I am able to use a line I have been longing to do for a while "Lancashire = Fracking Hell"
Another donkey off for today - rest of my rubbish selections today - good luck all Energize 1.30 Nottingham Sequence 2.00 Nottingham King Torus 2.30 Nottingham The Gossmoor Yank 3.30 Chepstow
Do you not think that the 'all roads lead to Cheltenham' mentality, whether you like it or not, gives the season a strong narrative? I think it does because each big race during the season is the next stepping stone to the championships at the Festival. For the Gold Cup there is the Charlie Hall, JN Wine Champion Chase, Betfair Chase, Hennessy, King George, Lexus, Argento, Aon and so on. These are all big races in their own right but they are also stepping stones towards the ultimate prize which is of course the Cheltenham Gold Cup. I find it hard to believe that National Hunt racing could have a stronger narrative. This is the very reason why the flat has introduced Champions Day. To be a finale/championship event which the rest of the season builds up to, just like the Festival over the jumps.
Zen, Thats a very fair point, perhaps what I should have said is that it needs a stronger supporting act in the narritive, because at the minute we really only have a few major races in the lead up to the festival, for instance Haydock and then the KG for the GC horses and the traditional UK/Irish routes for the Champion Hurdle. Perhaps with greater prizemoney we would see even stronger renewals with bigger fields of some prestigious stakes races. Obviously the big handicaps still stand up, but the handicapping system seems flawed enough to mean the biggest horses seldom step back into that company.
Nass, I see what you mean. If the top horses took each other on more regularly, thus creating a stronger supporting narrative, then i do think it would detract from the Festival. I think the whole excitement is the culmination of all the season's winners meeting to decide the ultimate champion. Take last years Champion Hurdle as an example. I don't think there would have been half the excitement if Hurricane Fly, Peddlers Cross and Menorah had met before. It was exciting because everyone had their own views on whose form was strongest and who was going to prevail. Nobody can be certain what is going to happen. If they have already met each other then it takes away some of the excitement, at least in my opinion. As far as i'm concerned i think it is terrific how it is. I still think the big races (Betfair, Hennessy, King George, Greatwood, International, Christmas, Tingle Creek and so on) are big races in their own right. But i think it adds to the narrative that their is the definitive championship at Cheltenham. Whatever has gone before has just been the build-up (though significant in their own right) and it is what happens on those 4 days in March which will sort the best from the best. In some ways it is like a world championship. The season decides the 'regional champions' and then all those 'regional champions' meet at Cheltenham to decide who is the best of them all. Possibly not the best analogy ever but you get the idea. That is my view, but i can readily accept and understand the counter view. I appreciate both sides of the argument but i think i am just in favour of the status quo.
Good Luck with the system Ardent - I will follow your selections with interest as i have always felt it must be possible to formulate a system that can turn a profit but like Rainbow have always been too lazy to really put the long hours into researching it all and then implementing it. I also fancy King Torus Nass but am mystified as to why he is so big in the market.
