Wednesday's racing comes from Newbury & Southwell over the jumps and Lingfield & Kempton on the flat. Newbury's card looks very interesting with several Cheltenham pointers on offer. In the opener it is difficult to look past Alan King's Grumeti. He beat a well-fancied Ted Spread (well fancied by his trainer Paul Nicholls that is) on debut by a yawning 14 lengths and will be a warm order to follow up here and confirm his position towards the head of the Triumph Hurdle market. This is, however, far from a one-horse-race, with the prolific John Ferguson yard sending out Art History who was rated in the upper-80s on the flat and was fancied on his hurdles debut when running out at Doncaster. I didn't have the feeling he was waiting to pounce that day, Jack Quinlan had already been pushing along for a couple of furlongs so, although he was unlucky, I don't believe he can trouble Grumeti. The same comment applies to Sud Pacifique who was last seen winning a class 2 handicap at Beverley off 91 for Jeremy Noseda and is now with Don McCain. For me Grumeti looked the real deal last time out and I think another demolition job awaits us. The novices chase at 1.30 is all about Cedre Bleu. If he jumps well and wins he could well enter Arkle calculations and, although Bellvano and Lidar are decent yardsticks, it will be disappointing if Paul Nicholls charge can't take this. In the novice hurdle at 2.05 I find Gary Moore's Montjeu gelding Crete a very interesting runner. He's not seen a race track for a whopping 1188 days but his form on the flat was certainly decent, having won at both Sandown and Newbury with some juice. Depending on his price I may have a speculative e/w dabble on him. In the 2.35 I like Rear Gunner who shaped well last time out on seasonal debut and should strip much fitter over this more suitable trip. In the bumper Alan King's Dalavar catches the eye on form having finished 2nd to The New One on debut - that one went on to win the class 1 bumper at Cheltenham on New Years Day which is traditionally a decent race. Don McCain's Call Back was 5th in that Cheltenham race and he had beaten the Ferguson horse House Party on debut so I think Dalavar holds the aces here. Several very nicely bred newcomers in the race make this a race for the notebook.
4.55 Kempton Red Somerset FC 5/1 If there were no doubts about Red Somerset's ability to run well after a break I'd be having a big big bet but as a result of this 9 year old's 3 month absence from the track I'm going to have to tone down my bet for fear he may need the run. The in form trainer Mike Murphy's gelding returns to a claimer for the first time since landing a similar event over C+D back in August and he has a fantastic record of 121131 in this type of race. Although not the highest rated in the race, he is best at the weights when looking at official handicap marks and is 2lb better off than his nearest rival on these terms, and is 5lb better off at the weights than the in form Marajaa who looks set to open as a short price favourite. As well as being the best in at the weights, Red Somerset has achieved the best form in this race when winning off a mark of 86 in a Class 2 when formely trained by Ron Hodges, albeit as a 6 year old back in 2009 and finishing 0.5L 2nd off a mark of 94 the same year in a similar event. Although Red Somerset is perhaps not as good as he was in his younger days, he is still not too far away from this level as demonstrated by his excellent 2nd behind stable mate Chapter and Verse in the Class 2 London Mile off a mark of 88 16 months ago so even in the latter stages of his career he seems to hold much of his former talent. Nowadays Red Somerset is rated 78 and has has posted some good efforts recently. As I said earlier, he won a claimer back in August when giving weight away when joint top weight and beating an 85 rated horse in the process while conceding him 3lb. This was his first win for 16 months and it certainly showed that he doesn't lack any of his old verve. After this Red Somerset finished a distant last back in handicap company although he was, in the words of Murphy, "strangled" early on by jockey Ryan Powell and I think its certainly best to ignore this effort. 2 starts back off a mark of 79 Red Somerset ran a very good 1.75L 4th behind Loyalty over C+D in a Class 4 event where he was the only horse to come from off the pace in a race that suited those who raced prominently and I think its certainly ok to upgrade this performance. Furthermore, the form of this race has worked out extremely well. The winner Loyalty has been in great form since this race winning 3 times since including off a 16lb higher mark LTO and is now a 102 rated animal. The 2nd Avon Lady won off a 1lb higher mark on his next start and after a fantastic 2.5L beaten 4th in a Listed race she was raised 15lb and is now rated 94. The 5th Blue Moon has won twice since, including off a 5lb higher mark, and is now rated 14lb higher than he was that day so Red Somerset just ran into some extremely well handicapped and progressive horses, and beat one of them that day. On his last start Red Somerset was a bit disappointing finishing a 4.25L beaten 6th and it seems that Murphy has dropped him back to Claiming level to get him back to winning ways. Kieran O'Neill takes the ride tomorrow and with him claiming 3lb off his back Marajaa will have to concede 12lb to my selection if he's to land this race which seems like a tough task. The value call in the race could be Amethyst Dawn who is only 2lb worse off than my selection at the weights but I think its very telling that O'Neill has jumped from riding this on debut LTO for Andrew Reid to Red Somerset tomorrow. O'Neill has 1 win from from 3 rides for Murphy which came recently on Rock Anthem and the trainer seems to have his string in top form with 2 of his last 3 runners winning, which is an obvious bonus. Although burdened with the outside draw in stall 9, he likes to be held up and I think there are certainly enough reasons to think that Red Somerset can land this event. Although I think he may be a bit shorter than his forecast odds, I can see the favourite being very popular amongst punters so hopefully Red Somerset will become a bigger price by tomorrow. If he touches 5/1 or bigger at any stage tomorrow I'm lumping a lot on e/w as I can't see him finishing outside of the top 3 but if fully wound up over a 3 month absence I am very confident Red Somerset will be very hard to beat tomorrow.
3.00 Desert Strike to me is a pure five furlong horse and I would like him tomorrow if it wasn't for two issues. Issue one, Nora Looby, who isn't a good claimer by any means, she won on him but I think that was more to do with luck (and the horse) than her riding skills. However more worrying is that the horse hasn't troubled the judge on four runs at the course, he is much better at Wolverhampton and that worries me here. The two I like in that race are Triple Dream and Rylee Mooch, the formers last run at Southwell should be ignored (didn't like the ground imho) and that makes him the one to beat here, whilst Rylee Mooch could take advantage of the small field. Rylee Mooch is interesting because I think he is another who is better on the polytrack and at 7/1 I think he is jolly good value. Small saver on Triple Dream too. Forecasts RM to beat TD/Sherjawy. 2.35 is the free bet race. I have popped it on Marufo, who I think is a good-soft ground horse who I am sure will be fit for this and comes from a yard in great form. I don't like a few of the rivals and I think Marufo is overpriced at 8/1 (9s available elsewhere). Not a confident selection but it would be nice to have another winner in the B365 offer. In the London Mile qualifier 5.25 I am tempted to back Jane Chapple-Hyam's mare She Ain't A Saint but I am slightly put off by the wide draw. She is better than her bare form and I think the headgear should motivate her to put her best foot forward. I think the race will be run at a good pace and she stays this trip well. A bit of luck in running and she should be in the thick of it. 14/1 is a fair price too.
Connections are sweet on Claret Cloak in the 2.05 at Newbury I've heard first hand . Might be misguided optimism, but the blaming of Sam Thomas LTO I felt added to the potential accuracy of the source. Anyway, apparently Claret Cloak has taken to hurdles and a big run is expected.
Hello all, My first posts on here. Some of you may know me from Fugees. Nass - i actually like Dessert Strike 3:00 Ling tomorrow. Ran over 6 furlongs on Sunday but like you say needs 5 furlongs which it gets. I think it is 'well in' with others in the race on the formline through Cadeaux Pearl. The jockey like you say has won on Desert Strike before so knows the horse but i admit it can be a tricky ride having to be played late. Needs fast gallop which I worry will get in the race tomorrow. The positives for me outweigh these negatives make it a good bet tomorrow at 5/2. Just my opinion and i am by no means an expert! Good luck with your selections in the race too. Good luck to evryone with their bets and may we all have plenty of winners.
Morning all, Ollie, Desert Strike certainly isn't a forlorn hope, I just have taken a viewpoint about him, and I have done that with many horses who have then gone on and proved me wrong!! On the day we wake up to find that fascinators may be banned from Royal Ascot (guardian website), I ask the readers and writers on the worlds best racing forum (I ask on here too) - What would you like to see banned from the sport of kings? Good luck one and all today, I will need it!
Dunno, but it is interesting. I want All Weather banned too, it should be Polytrack and Fibresand, (then Tapeta)
Morning folks, one that I like at at price (25/1) is WOGAN Newbury 2.35. It is 12 yo but has not done much running. Course winnner, distance winner, and has won/run in higher grades. Just too big a price not to have a wee dabble.
Fascinators must be part of Royal Ascot. What would Group racing be without fashion. It would be nothing. I think everyone, including men, should be made to wear fascinators.
Heehee, OddDog can't do a please log in to view this image (Goddamn it, can't spell but I'm a compoooter genius................). Have a good day chaps!
Its an interesting stance Cyc, but where am I going to get my false information from today? How am I going to sound knowledgeable?
The US government is getting all too powerful. There is a gent in the UK who is to be sent to the US ( at their request) for trial because he can't be prosecuted in the UK. I think he supplied links to sites where piracy took place.
Cyc, that is right, he basically made links to where videos could be watched (not downloaded according to him) online. It seems a trivial offence but this is the USA we are talking about, the land of the free (but not internet tv)
Agree, any extradition agreements with them are strictly one-way traffic? You try and get a Yank removed from the U.S. for trial in the U.K. or elsewhere. Damn near impossible. Sometimes we are all a bit soft in the head with them occasionally.
They took one of ours. He got 4 or 5 years, but seeing as he'd served time here awaiting the extradition, be just served a small amount of time there.
