Earlier this season SENTIMENTALJOURNEY 3.50 Towc 7-1 won a hurdle race off a mark of 110 with a visor on. Next time out in a chase off 110 with the visor on again he ran Beggars Velvet to seven lengths. Since then he has had the visor left off and following three dissapointments he has slipped to a very handy 102. Even handier is the fact that they have slipped the visor back on for tomorrow and are seemingly having a few quid on for good measure. With the master in the plate this rates a five star bet!
3.10 Michel Le Bon - 5/2 Another reasonably short priced one for me, but this veterans chase (stick could run in it) looks perfect for him. He ran poorly in the Welsh National, but that run can be overlooked as he ran a very good race at this track on seasonal reappearance and only found the well touted The Package too good that day. The pair of them pulled well clear of the rest and it was a two horse race. Here he is over a similar trip, and he is going to get a good pace to sit in behind with most of the field liking to run from the front, including the temperamental Master Overseer and Victor Dartnell's Richard Sundance. I think the price is fair enough and I think he could easily hack up here.
Stick what chance would you give GEMINI AHHS in this race this is one i had short listed as an each way proposition fairly confidently.
I think he will be better when tackling better ground ardent, in the meantime they wont mind him dropping a pound or two
got a free bet with B365 (despite withdrawing a good amount this month). I have stuck it on sticks horse
One bet tomorrow, class animal, forget the shockingly poor animals running in britain. Meydan 4.50 Sharestan 11/10 JAILCASE
3.10 Wincanton: TAMARINBLEU 16/1 Comes with risks attached based on recent form, but this could well be a Pipe plot and I do expect money to be around in the morning. I'm not Stick or ROTO, so gambles are not my thing to read. However, what I can tell you is that it was quicker ground where the horse was pulled up, and that the last 3 races ran on heavy ground has form figures of 213, winning a handicap chase at Haydock off 145 under Timmy Murphy just 13 months ago. The handicapper has responded perfectly, with the horse dropping to a mark of 137 and then we have Tom Bellamys 7lb claim, effectively racing off a mark of 130 therefore. The opposition is far less imperious today and I think this looks well worth an e/w punt, especially with Pipe operating at 22% at this venue over the last 12 months. Age of course catches up with them, but this is less of a factor in a veterans race and whilst Michel Le Bon has solid claims at the head of the market, he is not one to trust, especially with his jumping, hence I am taking him on e/w with an old Pipe hero.
There will probably be a little money around for it. Will probably start the 10/1 region. Can't imagine a stack load of cash for a 13 year old though!
4.50 Wolverhampton Perlachy 14/1 Quite fancy Ron Harris's 9 year old to go very close in a contest that will pan out very well for him and I'm quietly confident Perlachy can land this contest in a race that his trainer had the winner in last year. Although winless on the AW since last February, (won on turf last July) Perlachy's current mark of 64 is the lowest its been since November 2011 and 2lb below the mark his last victory came off of and I definitely think he's on a mark he can score. Last year for the most part, he held his form pretty well off higher marks most notably when beaten 1L off a 3lb higher mark in September over this C+D and a staying on 1.75L beaten 6th at Kempton off a 4lb higher mark. He had a 3 month break recently before running 24 days ago which I think will have him spot on for this. With regards to tomorrow's contest, these apprentice handicaps are normally ran at a fairly decent clip and there also seems to be a lot of natural pace from some of the other runners and I really think that the race could fall apart for a closer which would be ideal for Perlachy. Gary Phillips takes the ride and a handy 3lb off and I think he is a jockey well worth following in the coming months. He used to be based with Ger Lyons in Ireland but has recently joined the Harris yard and I think that will work wonders for him, as it did so for Darren Egan. He's already had a winner for Harris in the 3 rides he's had and I think he's a jockey with a lot of potential. Drawn stall 2, I think he's got the perfect draw tomorrow which should allow him to bag a sit on the rail. Ron Harris couldn't have his horses in better form at present with 3 winners and two narrowly beaten horses from his last 5 runners and I certainly think he targets this race having the winner last year and a narrowly beaten 2nd in it back in 2010 (no runner 2011). At the moment with 8 runners, I think Perlachy looks an excellent e/w proposition at 14/1 and hopefully none of the horses are pulled. If all goes to plan in the race tomorrow, I'm hopeful of a very big run from Perlachy off a good mark and hopefully he can land this contest at a nice price.
Good call Eddie. This chap is potentially G1 (well he would have been if left where he was) and I've been following him since he won the Irish Lincoln last year. Really weird that the Aga Khan sold him regardless of having the blood line locked in on the distaff side..very strange...maybe Princess could throw some light on that one? Leather double locked brief case?!
Also think Light Heavy will be very interesting in time but not over tomorrows trip...obviously being geared up for a crack at something later in the private sweepstakes and beyond. I actually think Bolger may be "shopwindowing" him for a sale to a wealthy resident..interesting to see what happens there. I'm gonna have another almighty hangover so won't be having a f*****g bet tomorrow/today...you know the rest!
4.10 Wincanton Big Occasion 9/2 NAP I rather like the look of David Pipe's handicap chasing debutant whose latest effort can be excused due to a burst blood vessel and if recovered from that experience I think he'll take an awful lot of beating off a mark of 120. Formerly a pretty talented flat horse for Aidan O'Brien where he reached a peak rating of 95, Big Occasion joined David Pipe at the end of 2011 and he won a couple of decent Novice Hurdles in testing conditions in his first season and he looked a decent acquisition to the NH scene and he was even thought good enough to run in Albert Bartlett (although well beaten). His final start in that sphere came in May of last year in a competitive handicap off a mark of 130 and he made a promising chase debut when finishing a well beaten 3rd in October over 20f at Carlisle in what looks a very strong Novice Chase on the back of a 6 month absence. Sitting just off the leader Chasing Times and clear of the remainder of the field, Big Occasion jumped well in the most part before his two classy rivals passed him at 4 out. After this, Big Occasion got very weary late on and certainly looked in need the run. The form of that race looks very strong with the winner Rival D'Estruval finishing runner up the the talented Bold Sir Brian before in by 23L in a Novice Chase whilst the 2nd Chasing Times has won two of his 3 starts over fences subsequently, most recently when bolting in off a mark of 132. It was clear her ran into a couple of very good prospects and he lost little in defeat that day. A month later in November, Big Occasion was sent over the same C+D in a Beginners Chase where he was very well supported on the course from 9/2 into 5/2 favourite where he again ran another respectable race when he finished a 16L beaten 3rd. After tracking the leader, Big Occasion took up the running after 7 out but he seemed to get outpaced by the leading pair after four out. He stuck on at the same pace for most of the race thereafter and although connections were clearly disappointed it was a good effort all the same. Again, that looks a pretty decent contest with the 2nd Vintage Star winning subsequently by a heavily eased 28L to earn a chasing mark of 137 and in hindsight it was a pretty good effort. Big Occasion's final start came at the start of December when again quite well fancied 11/4 shot when stepped up to 3m at Chepstow but he broke a blood vessel and reportedly bled from the nose that day and you've clearly got to stick a line through it. Tomorrow sees Big Occasion make his handicap debut off a mark of 120 and judged on what he achieved over hurdles and what he achieved over fences to date I think he looks a well handicapped horse. Moreover, this former Cesarewitch market leader should definitely be suited by the step up to this extended 25f as stamina is certainly his forte. Conor O'Farrell takes the ride and although Pipe's other horse in the race Alderluck has seen a little support tonight to see him go favourite I'm not too concerned about that at all. David Pipe has his string in good order at present and he does well with his chasers at Wincanton. With conditions looking no problem at all, Big Occasion rates as a pretty confident selection for me and I'll be pretty disappointed if he doesn't emerge victorious.
Big Occasion @ 9/2 (GP) 16:10 HANDICAP CHASE 3m 1f 110y Perlachy @ 14/1 (GP) 16:50 APPRENTICE HANDICAP 5f 216y Sentimentaljourney @ 6/1 (GP) 15:50 HANDICAP CHASE 3m 110y Tamarinbleu @ 14/1 (GP) 15:10 HANDICAP CHASE 3m 1f 110y Not had a bet for a while so have gone small EW lucky and acca on the forums wise ones choices, and a free bet from PP on MLB got 2s but is coming in fast stay frosty
EW Lucky 31 in Meydan for me today: 2:30 Start Right 14/1 3:05 Sandagiyr 8/1 3:40 Inxile 8/1 4:15 Iver Bridge Lad 7/1 5:25 Captain Ramius 20/1
Good morning all, trust we are all well... Well, apart from Dex who seems to be in a constant alcohol dunk stupor at the mo... Good on yer pal, but save a bit for the rest of us...hic... Today's selections but only one bet... Wincanton... 1.40 - Parsnip Pete, 7/4 2.10 - Tenor Nivernais, 5/4 2.40 - Politeo, 5/1 3.10 - Michael Le Bon, 2/1 3.40 - Nicto De Beachene, 6/1 4.10 - Alderluck, 7/2 Towcester... 1.20 - Sydney Paget, 4/5 1.50 - Splendid Blue, 12/1 2.20 - Thunderstorm, 8/11... bet 2.50 - Petie McSweetie, 7/2 3.20 - If In Doubt, 4/5... bet 3.50 - Sentimentaljourney... bet 4.20 - Trumix, 8/1 After the opening tip from Stick, a potential AP winner, i seemed to have picked his other 2 rides as well today at Towcester... So ive had a £10er on Sentimentaljourney @ 6/1 and a £10er on the 8/11 + 4/5 + 6/1 treble... It pays at £121.76 for your troubles...!!! No other bets as im 'Staying Frosty' for the bigger challenges that lay ahead of us... Though after yesterdays performance i can say im bloomin frozen... Good luck to all who indeed play today...
Following ROTO and Stick with Sentimentaljourney and Big Occasion, but opposing Nass's Michel Le Bon with Desperate Dex, who despite being 13 retains his ability very well, carries the minimum and loves a slog.
