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Daily Thread: Saturday 7th October

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by TopClass, Oct 7, 2011.

  1. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    Just a small stakes Yankee for the day for me on what is a very nice days racing:

    2.05 Newmarket: Strong Suit 6/5- It's a short price but if he remains in fine fettle then he must have a massive chance. Mightily impressive at Goodwood and 7f is his optimum trip.

    Newmarket 2.35: Samminder 20/1 e.w- Made a most promising reappearance, just touched off by the well thought of Charlie Hills sort, Mezmaar. Peter Chapple Hyam reckons Samminder blew up a little bit late on that day and I still suspect his official ratings understimate her, given how unexposed he is. Buick booked and I sense an air of quiet confidence.

    Newmarket 3.10- Bronterre 10/3- I think this guy might not be too far behind Harbour Watch within the Hannon stable, massively impressive when winning a listed event by 4L. Stays really strongly and might go further from what I have seen. The owner had the opportunity to run this horse in the Tatterstall Millions last week, but turned down the prize money to come here. He's a serious horse and I think will go very close.

    Chepstow 4.10- Cue Card 11/10- He is currently our 'under the spotlight' selection and will certainly be just that today. He and Silviniano Conti will make their chase debuts and it will be interesting to see, with the latter the marginal favourite as I post.



    As for the CESAREWITCH:.....

    RAINFOREST MAGIC 16/1- I'm sticking with him and saying balls to the draw. Very unexposed as a stayer and is progressing under both codes. Will absolutely relish the trip and with some luck along the way I think will be in the frame.


    Would like to wish England Rugby the very best of luck in the morning, hopefully they can make us proud against what is a very dangerous French team on their day.

    E/W Thief?

    LUTINE BELL 22/1 (4.05 York) is on 13lb better terms than 3rd favourite SIRIUS PROSPECT, and if forgiven for a rare blip LTO should be bang there.

    KING TORUS 9/1 is said to be well thought of prior ot his run LTO and if bouncing back can stamp his mark at the higher level. Very tempting price.
     
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  2. Hardy Eustace

    Hardy Eustace Member

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    I like a few at york, newmarket looks very tricky.

    2.50 - sadeeks song
    4.05 - son of a cat
    4.40 - astromajick
    5.15 - on her way
     
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  3. ROTO

    ROTO Well-Known Member

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    4 for me today, good to see toppy agrees with 2

    2.35 Newmarket Rebellious Guest 12/1 NAP
    2.40 Hexham Kathlatino FC 12/1
    3.50 Newmarket Rainforest Magic 16/1


    4.05 York

    Lutine Bell 28/1 NB


    I quite like the look of Mike Murphy’s runner today, who has been ultra consistent of late (bar his last run) without quite getting his head in front. He runs for one of my favourite trainers as his horses always seem to progress. After a successful beginning to his career with Sir Mark Prescott, which included 2 victories and 3 placed efforts ranging from 5f to a mile, he moved to his current yard in November last year where he romped to a winning 6L debut over 7f on the AW. Although winless since then, Lutine Bell has performed with a fair deal of consistency since, performing very admirably in most subsequent starts. After being raised to a mark of 92 after the 6L victory, Lutine Bell’s mark had remained static at either 92 or 91, until his effort at Ascot has seen him raised to a mark of 94, which I still believe is very much within his ability.

    After producing a below par 2nd effort for the Murphy yard, Lutine Bell produced a decent 1.12L 3rd behind Angels Pursuit and Seek the Fair Land, again on the AW. On his next start, Lutine Bell returned to the turf and ran out an excellent 1.56L 4th over 6f behind the excellent Horseradish, who subsequently ran a very credibly 1L behind Hoof It off a 4lb mark before being sold to Hong Kong. He was staying on strongly towards the finish, showing that a step up to 7f would be ideal, which he gets tomorrow. Perhaps more interesting than Horseradish, was Waffle, who finished only 0.75L ahead of tomorrows selection. Subsequently, Waffle ran an excellent 2nd to Deacon Blues at Royal Ascot, only narrowly failing by a neck as the line came too soon. In correlation with the form of this race alone, Lutine Bell surely has an excellent chance. However, Lutine Bell has run another 3 excellent efforts subsequently.

    On 21 May, after a disappointing run at Ascot, Lutine Bell ran finished a good race to finish 1L 4th behind Crown Choice. This was another good run, emphasising the normally excellent standard that Lutine Bell runs to. After this, Lutine Bell was quite luckless from start to finish when finishing 3.31L behind the progressive Dungannon, a horse he finished 0.75L in front of on May 21 with only a 1lb swing in the weights. According to the trainer, “the starter hesitated for a split second before opening the stalls which resulted in Martyn taking the hood off the horse a fraction early. The horse hit the gate and bounced back onto his hocks just as the gate opened” and after meeting traffic, he could not get into contention. Murphy futher cited “We were both thrilled with his run but disappointed as with a clear run he would have won.”

    A few starts back Lutine Bell ran an excellent race to finish 0.75L 2nd to Piazzo San Pietro. Lutine Bell missed the kick a bit that day and still did a very good job to finish 2nd. Four starts ago, Lutine Bell again found one too good. Facing one of his toughest tasks to date, Lutine Bell travelled ominously well throughout and for the most part cut his way through the field from deep off a mark of 92. However, he met a small bit of traffic along the way and had to be switched. He finished an excellent 0.75L behind Noble Citizen, who has subsequently run a great race to finish 0.75L 3rd behind Bronze Prince in a big race at Ascot off a 3lb higher mark. Macs Power, who has put together two fine efforts, including an excellent 3rd in the Stewards Cup, finished a length behind todays selection and Racy, who finished 1.5L behind that day, who reopposes tomorrow off a 3lb worse off mark, is one of the market leaders.

    3 starts ago Lutine Bell put in a rare poor performance at Goodwood when he finished 4.75L behind Webbow over 7f. I’m convinced something was awry with him as he never picked up at all when asked for an effort which is rather strange. He got bumped leaving the stalls so maybe that effected him in some way but. 2 starts back Lutine Bell ran an excellent 1.75L 2nd to another market leader tomorrow in the shape of Sirius Prospect, who reopposes on a 13lb worse off mark as he has won again subsequently. Richard Hughes was booked for the first time that day and connections clearly fancied him quite a bit. Once again he travelled ominously well but Sirius Prospect got first run on him and it was quite clear that Lutine Bell bumped into an improving 3 year old. The form of that race has been confirmed with the winner coming out again and winning subsequently but with a 13lb swing at the weights and a huge difference between the prices I am definitely willing to take the chance that Lutine Bell can bridge the gap.

    LTO with Hughes booked again, Lutine Bell put in a bit of a shocker when down way down the field at Newmarket last month. He never travelled well as he normally does and although I have no reasons why he performed so badly, he has bounced straight back from a poor run before so I amn’t massively worried. Today Lutine Bell is still on a mark of 94, and he has proven with his run behind Sirius Prospect that he can certainly be competitive off this mark. Interestingly, this is only Murphy’s 2nd ever runner at York and its a bout a 340 mile round trip for the trainers only runner of the day. Stevie Donohue takes his first ever ride on Lutine Bell and 3rd ride for the trainer. Its a bit of a worry that Donohue has never had a winner at the track before, but he’s a competent jockey and can hopefully give him a good ride today. Lutine Bell really deserves to win a big handicap and barring a few blips this year he really has been consistent. The 28/1 available at present seems pretty farcical to me given he’s proven himself off this mark 2 starts ago and the form of a lot of his races is very strong. He doesn’t seem to win very often which is a concern but hopefully tomorrow Lutine Bell will be the trainer and jockeys first ever winners at the track and the horses first win for the trainer on turf.
     
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  4. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    4.05 York Sirious Prospect. Progressive sprinter, even though he hasn't left the traps yet!
    4.25 Newmarket Alsindi . Unbeaten and can progress further.
    5.25 Newmarket Bubble Chic. 2nd in French Derby- Peslier comes over specially for this ride
     
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  5. Islanderpei

    Islanderpei Member

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    Newmarket
    14.05 Maqaassid win
    14.35 Bapak Chinta win
    15.10 Spiritual Star win
    15.50 Tuscan Gold win
    16.25 Rockinate win
    17.35 Dux Scholar win
     
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  6. Expert Witness

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    Great win by the welsh this morning!
    Few for me today:
    Strong suit
    Bapak chinta
    Bronterre
    Alsindi
     
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  7. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Well done Wales, very impressive! Can't see England or France taking them after this performance. Wales for the Final.................

    Now taking a look at the horses.......

    GL today one and all!
     
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  8. yorkies_boy

    yorkies_boy Member

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    Hannon/Hughes for today, surely can't go far wrong with them<doh>
     
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  9. antidistinctlyminty (ADM)

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    which four are in your yankee
     
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  10. GGW

    GGW Well-Known Member

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    Morning lads, i like the look of Racy in the 4.05 at York who would have won LTO with a clear run. 11/1 on the exchanges. Good luck all.
     
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  11. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Morning all, hope everyone is well. Fingers crossed for Carlito Brigante who was found to be clinically abnormal after his run at Dundalk last night.

    Been staring at the Cue Card race and I fancy there may be something of an upset on the cards in the shape of Michael Flips. Although Andrew Turnell's gelding never achieved the lofty ratings of CC & SC over hurdles, he was nevertheless a decent performer over the smaller obstacles and, crucially, he has race experience over fences having run in a beginners chase at Towcester a year ago, finishing a close-up second to Have You Seen Me, who has subsequently run a decent second off 132 at Cheltenham. If the main protaganists don't quite get it together on debut Michael Flips could just nick this.

    Some interesting rides for Ruby again (anyone see his response on ATR yesterday when asked whether he was ready for the new whip rules? <laugh>) but a watching brief today as it is still early in the season.

    In the Cesarewitch my money will be on Beyond as it looks like Keys won't have the juice in the ground. Beyond absolutely hacked up on his first run for David Pipe and this son of Gallileo looks to have a bright future under both codes.

    Good luck one and all
     
    #11
  12. GGW

    GGW Well-Known Member

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    Cesarewitch is a no bet for me but I think people could do a lot worse than Colour Vision (watch him now tail off<laugh>)
     
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  13. sparkymarky

    sparkymarky Member

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    Morning all!

    2 Placepots me today

    Newmarket:
    Leg 1: Chachamaidee (5)
    Leg 2: Bapak Chinta (3) / Burwaaz (5) / Lilbourne Lad (10)
    Leg 3: Red Duke (7) / Spiritual Star (8)
    Leg 4: Kazbow (10) / Ermyn Lodge (12) / Rainforest Magic (22) / Abergavenny (22)
    Leg 5: Alsindi (1) / Regal Realm (7)
    Leg 6: Astrology (1) / Rockinante (7)
    96 @ 15p
    £14.40

    York:
    Leg 1: Choisan (2)
    Leg 2: Bronze Beau (6) / Noodles Blue Boy (9) / Lujeanie (10) / Flash City (15)
    Leg 3: Electra Star (3) / Weapon Of Choice (8)
    Leg 4: Bannock (1) / Swiss Spirit (3)
    Leg 5: Joe Packet (2) / Son Of The Cat (9) / Colonel Mak (10)
    Leg 6: Beat The Shower (3) Los Nadis (4) / May Contain Nuts (10)
    144 @ 10p
    £14.40

    Singles Bets:

    Red Duke (ew) 3.10 Newmarket (NAP)
    I think he is a future star, and he is definitely on the upgrade. Although he didn't win his last two, he was very unlucky not to get a gap at Goodwood, and he was unleashed far too late at Doncaster. Into a Group 1 for the first time, but I believe he is sure to be in the frame if not winning. 14/1 Paddy Power

    Ermyn Lodge (ew) 3.50 Newmarket
    He is such a consistent horse who deserves to notch up a big race victory. He is on a handy weight, and the trip should be ideal. He is a likely player in this very competitive handicap. 16/1 Various

    Electra Star 2.50 York
    Slightly disappointing in a listed race at Newmarket latest. Back in handicap company today, and hopefully he can put that poor run behind him to land this contest with Adam Beschizza taking off those handy 3 pounds. 100/30 Ladbrokes

    Son Of The Cat (ew) 4.05 York
    I'm keeping faith in this fella. He ran a blinder in the Ayr Gold Cup on ground which wasn't ideal. Up in weight, but he should go very well on better ground, and can take another big sprint handicap. 10/1 Various
     
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  14. heisenburg

    heisenburg Well-Known Member

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    morning

    off to york

    no fat northern jocks there to give me ****e tips (i will be ith rich mac but he is still concused so wont listen to him) SO I SHOULD BE OK
    will back lutine bell after reading the great write ups

    been given BAJAN TRYST o will have that ew

    stay frosty
     
    #14
  15. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Have a great time at York Dan <ok>

    Had a small stakes e/w Lucky 15 today (3 tips from here plus my own fancy Beyond):

    Samminder
    Red Duke
    Beyond
    Lutine Bell

    Also backed Michael Flips to win at Chepstow <ok>
     
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  16. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    morning all,

    Great win by wales, **** 1st 40 minutes by england- everyone expected england to romp it this morning coz of the problems france have had- Wales to win lol

    Now my selections!

    Nemarket

    2.05- Strong Suit
    2.35- Caspar Netscher
    3.10- Etikhaam
    3.35- Rainforest Magic E/W
     
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  17. CHIEF MECHANIC

    CHIEF MECHANIC Active Member

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    greetings HESSIANBURG---------------------btw--i am now into the latest series of breaking bad--season 4
    did you back that --maunday money last sunday?
     
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  18. ROTO

    ROTO Well-Known Member

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    Best show ever made, and I've see The Wire. Acting and writing are unbelievable!
     
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  19. CHIEF MECHANIC

    CHIEF MECHANIC Active Member

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    sure is ROTO----i got heessianburg into it--he loves it------try downloading BROTHERHOOD also very good-------and the shield-wire-sopranos--dexter



    one for me today QUESTIONING 5-35 NEWM------as well as my good good friends selections on another forum---spiced rums cometh to he who waits
     
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  20. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    Top 4 Andy <cheers>
     
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