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Daily Thread- Saturday 6th August

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by TopClass, Aug 5, 2011.

  1. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    Time to hammer the bookies with the football season starting again as well.

    2.45 Haydock- FALLEN IDOL 12/1 (NAP)- Shaped as if all ability is retained when behind Class Is Class at Sandown and should have come on a tonne for that. It is typical of Gosden's to improve for a run- (Nathaniel beaten in Chester Vase, dots up at Ascot twice...Masked Marvel well beaten on reappearance, dots up next time out and has won since) so they tend to go on from run to run and this should be no exception. William Buick takes over this time and there are plenty of positives for this one.

    2.15 Haydock:- DHAMMER 14/1 ew (NB)- Shaped really well on most starts, this should be a strongly run race and with O'Shea 2 from 2 on board, this ought to get involved in the shake up if the visor has a positive effect.

    As for the football, a nice speculative accumulator to start the season off:

    Preston
    Sheffield Wednesday
    Sheffield Utd
    Millwall
    Port Vale
    Ipswich
    Nottingham Forest


    Have a good weekend, take care

    -Top
     
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  2. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    1.25 Ascot. Ermyn Lodge.
    This very consistent handicapper acts on any ground and can give Hayley Turner a Shergar Day winner.
    Best Price 7/2 Ladbrokes.

    2.40 Newmarket. Unex El Greco. (Nap)
    Unseated rider first time out but comes here on a very attractive mark after shouldering big weights in Class 2 Nurseries last back end.
    Best Price 7/1 Paddy Power.

    3.35 Ascot. Morache Music. Each Way
    Had good form last year and was given a pipe opener at Sandown last month. He'll love the ground and can go close at a good price.
    Best Price 14/1 Paddy Power
     
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  3. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    Morning, all. Well today isn't the greatest Saturday in terms of racing but despite this the odd classy animal may still be out there. I'll put forward these:

    Ermyn Lodge (1.25 Ascot) - this gelding has put up a couple of decent displays this term in finishing 2nd to Zigato and then last time out to Mr Henderson's Veiled at the Royal meeting. That latter effort was particularly classy and gutsy and I think based on that effort is undoubtedly the one to beat here.

    Class Is Class (2.45 Haydock) - Sir Michael and 'King' Kieren reunite in this heat with a most progressive individual. His last 2 runs have been very good and they have also hinted that there is still more to come. Expect a return to the old 'winners enclosure' for this one this afternoon.

    Heavenly Dawn (3.20 Haydock) - what a lovely name for a filly by the way. My regular readers will fondly recall me tipping this one up last time out and she didn't disappoint as she routed her Newbury opponents by upwards of 4 lengths. Heavenly Dawn's turn of foot that day was ultra-impressive and I firmly believe she is destined for the top table in time. Can take this Listed contest first though.

    Firebeam (3.35 Ascot) - one very much on the upgrade and has won his last 2 races by a total of 10.5 lengths. Has risen in the weights accordingly but looks up to the defying the handicapper again. In fact he looks Pattern class and that is where he could be deployed after taking this £30k handicap.

    Good luck to all those who wager today.
     
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  4. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    I am loving the old Shergar Cup today -

    2.00 Sohraab - Course form is invaluable at Ascot and this one has the form in the book behind Medicean Man who he has a nice weight swing with. He ran a lesser race last time out against him but I think he is still the one to be with here. Richard Hughes riding is a big positive too as I think he is more likely to give it a good ride than his young claimer did last time out.

    2.30 Halifax - Another that I have allowed one bad run. He ran well enough at Goodwood but didn't get home when chasing the pace at Goodwood last time. I think he is a talented sort and I do think that he could go on to win a race like this, his Royal Ascot run shows enough for me to be backing it again here.

    3.00 Pipette - She looks to be returning to form and today is an easier assignment for her. She ran really well around here last time out. Her mark looks very fair.

    3.35 Desert Law - Another Balding horse who I think will run a big race. I was very impressed with his HQ run last time when challenging on what was probably the wrong side. One I really like today. NAP
     
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  5. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

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    Is the "old" Shergar Cup the 13:25?
     
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  6. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Also the blog selection Illaunglass in the Sweet Solera
     
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  7. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Morning all.

    Feels like a typical Kempton evening meeting has been transferred to Ascot today - absolute rubbish fields. Shoshoni Wind in the 2.00 might make things more bearable though.

    Sir Mark Prescott is in tremendous form and sends out 2 today - Kinetica in the 3.15 at Newmarket and Gassin Golf in the 7.20 at Lingfield will both be carrying some of my Euros.

    AT HQ John Dunlop's Downhiller (4.50) could go well at a big price. After more than 2 years off the track he had a nice gentle reintroduction behind Keys last time out and should strip much fitter today. Prior to his absence he looked progressive after landing a 2m Ripon Handicap off 94 and headed to the Chester Cup where he arguably didn't see out the trip. The same was probably true on his comeback run and today's 2m trip looks much more appropriate.

    I will construct a Lucky 15 from those 4, just for interest.

    Nass I see you have backed the mighty Owls to win. You are a brave man.

    Good luck to everybody <ok>
     
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  8. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    I haven't backed the Owls!!
     
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  9. Filon D'or

    Filon D'or Guest

    Why not? The rotating brain has backed them for a place......................
     
    #9
  10. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Wednesday haven't really changed anything transfer wise and Gary Madine must be odds on to end up in prison before Joey Barton!!!
     
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  11. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Apologies Nass, I see now it was part of Topclass write up. Late night last night, not really awake yet.
     
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  12. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Hudderfield are my only football bet today. 8/11 at home to Bury looks a point or two longer than I had expected.
     
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  13. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    A lot of people fancying Udders for the league Nass, hope they don't do the classic bad start for you
     
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  14. THEMANINBLACK

    THEMANINBLACK Member

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    My main bet this weekend is on something that i know a fair bit about--Association Football E O.

    singles doubles and treble for the respective lg titles,NOTTS FORREST @14-1,BOURNEMOUTH @33-1,BRISTOL ROVERS @10-1

    as for the horse racing saheed bin sirossisoftheliver"s BURJ NAHAR should win today.
     
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  15. rainbowview

    rainbowview Well-Known Member

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    Afternoon all

    I am looking forward to the racing/football today. Thoughts on Ascot below. Might put some more up soon from Haydock/Newmarket but going to watch a bit of the Leicester game first.

    12.50 Ascot – MASTER OF ARTS & DOCTOR CRANE – 11-1 AND 18-1 E.W (BOG) A nice enough race to start the Shergar Cup card and I have decided to back two in this race both E.W. Master Of Arts is a horse with plenty of ability and a mark of 95 looks workable if returning to the same kind of form that seen him win well off this mark when progressing when trained by Sir Mark Prescott. He was then sent to David Pipe for a hurdling campaign in which he looked a very useful recruit when hacking up in a Doncaster Novice hurdle. He ran a fair race in the triumph when 11th of 18 but then picked up a problem. He returned to the flat seen 329 days later at Meydan but failed to show anything in 2 outings. However those are best forgiven and this looks a fresh start for Mark Johnston’s gelding. He has been prolific when racing over this distance (5 wins from 6 starts) and with rain getting in to the ground he has a lot of things going for him here and in my opinion he is massively overpriced at 18-1. Doctor Crane is a very useful sort on his day and although he had a golden opportunity to win last time out he may have just needed that outing and should be spot on for this race. He doesn’t look one for a battle so hopefully Peslier can deliver him late. Although he hasn’t run on ground with soft in the description in the past he is worth chancing E.W at 11-1.

    2.00 Ascot – ADDICTIVE DREAM 7-1 (BOG) – A competitive sprint to solve here but I am going to take a chance on Addictive Dream. He is a horse with a touch of class and he looks very good when he wins due to the fact he is a strong travelling horse who does everything so easily when things go his way. The key to him performing at his best is a strong pace and we will get that today as Shoshoni Wind is a very quick filly who usually blazes along in front. The selection should get plenty of cover and I expect Hannagan to be cantering along with about 2f left to go. What he will find off the bridle remains to be seen but this horse always gives me a run for my money and is well worth a play today in my opinion.


    2.30 Ascot – SEELO 9-1 (BOG) - Another tough handicap as it looks impossible to rule any of the runners out. I will be backing Seelo here as I feel he offers good value at around the 9/1 mark. Whilst it is obvious he doesn’t look well handicapped he did run in a very hot handicap last time out at Newmarket and looked like playing a big part in the finish at one point. The form of that race is working out nicely and I am hoping for a big run from the top weight here

    3.00 Ascot – PIPETTE 8-1 (BOG) – As Nass said earlier on Pipette is starting to find some form. In my opinion she ran a race full of promise when 4th here last month on similar ground conditions. Timeform are questioning her stamina but in my opinion she seemed to be staying on very strongly having been outpaced early on in the race, therefore she is worth a go at this trip. She has always been held in high regard by Andrew Balding and this looks a good opening.


    3.35 Ascot – No bet race this for me but really looking forward to watching FIREBEAM – he is a horse I have followed since his debut run and he looks a potential listed/group 3 performer.
     
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  16. rainbowview

    rainbowview Well-Known Member

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    2.15 Haydock &#8211; BAUER 28/1 E.W (BOG) &#8211; A bit of a wild selection here but there is no doubting that Bauer has a touch of class on his day. However I wouldn&#8217;t say he is overpriced today as he will need the run having been off for 323 days and he may also find this 10f trip a bit on the short side. On the other hand I do feel he is a fair price and at 28/1 I will be having an E.W dabble. He runs off 104 here but Sean Jackson takes off 7lbs and hopefully he will be running on strongly towards the finish.

    2.45 Haydock &#8211; SIMON DE MONTFORT 11/2 NAP (BOG) &#8211; My nap this afternoon is Simon De Montfort who looks to have leading form claims in the Rose of Lancaster stakes. The morning line was reporting that Sajjhaa is the main Godolphin hope with Ted Durcan aboard. However I am more than happy with Barzalona on my selection and at the odds he appears to be the value of the race. He has won 5 times from just 7 starts and his latest run is best forgiven as he certainly didn&#8217;t run up to form when a well beaten short priced favourite at Meydan.



    Other bets today

    Pekan Star 2.05 Newmarket &#8211; Progressive until running badly last time out, that effort best forgiven

    Reem E.W 2.40 Newmarket &#8211; Smart performer and in my opinion is massively overpriced at 12/1

    Zingzanga E.W 3.15 Newmarket &#8211; Looked potentially smart when winning at 100-1 on debut, fair maiden that was and looks overpriced again today at 25-1
     
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  17. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Darius Vassell you just have to laugh at him
     
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  18. THEMANINBLACK

    THEMANINBLACK Member

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    is he the singer off that simon cowell show,who sang a rendition of a britney spears song at his audition?
     
    #18
  19. Grecian Mick

    Grecian Mick Well-Known Member

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    Afternoon all,

    My bets today all of which i believe have good e/w chances:

    1.25 Asc. Hawk Mountain
    2.00 Asc. Duchess Dora
    2.30 Asc. Ithoughtitwasover
    2.25 Red. Musical Valley
    4.30 Hay. Ballinargh Girl
    4.50 New. Zakatal
    5.20 New. Hurricane Lady

    Good luck all
     
    #19
  20. Not the best of days racing today, however, where there is racing there is potential to find a winner hopefully at decent odds. I will be staying away from the racing at Ascot and concentrating my selections at Newmarket, Haydock, Redcar.

    HAYDOCK

    2.15 BURJ NAHAR 11/2 upped to 12f LTO and obviosuly didnt get the distance when fading in the last furlong, previous to that he won in similar company over 10f and won going away on similar going as today. The booking of Barzalona the jockey that day and the drop back to 10f is enough to suggest to me that he will go close today.

    2.45 CLASS IS CLASS 4/1 stepped up to Group 2 Company LTO and found a couple too good for him when fading in the last furlong, in particular the very talented Henry Cecil trained TWICE OVER. Not sure there is anything if that standard on show here today and with a strong gallop expected from the Godolphin second string this should be to his advantage. With the SMS stable hitting a bit of form lately and the slight drop to Group 3 Company he is my selection against the field.

    4.30 TOMBI 12/1 EW first time out for his new stable Ollie Pears, useful 3lb claimer on board and a big drop in class, his last time out in this grade off a 3lb higher mark resulted in a win, all of his wins have come on much better ground than today, however, he does have form on Good to Soft, is drawn really well and if running to his mark he should be there or there abouts and is a speculative EW bet.

    REDCAR

    2.55 LAYLAS HERO 3/1 recently left the Nicholls stable, there is no doubting that this is the class horse in the race with wins in Class 1 Listed Company and is back in the same grade as his last race where he showed signs of returning to winning ways, had he not been hampered at the start and with a better run i think he would have went on to win, today he runs off a 2lb better mark and has the ground to suit and should go close for his new stable.

    NEWMARKET

    4.50 VERY GOOD DAY 5/1 dropped to Class 3 Company, showed signs LTO that he was close to a winning amrk when staying on towards the finish when finishing fifth to thew very useful KEYS, today he is down another 1lb, dropped in class, has ground that should suit and with inform jockey Jamie Spencer onboard could get back to winning ways.

    5.20 COMPLEXION 100/30 won very well LTO when asked to go she quickened up well and won with plenty in hand, suggesting that the extra weight today shouldnt be a problem.
     
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