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Daily Thread: Saturday 1st October! Calm Before The Arc?!

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by TopClass, Sep 30, 2011.

  1. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    Rich pickings at Newmarket with two sales races up for grabs, and some good racing at Ascot, including the return of Arctic Cosmos.


    2.25 Newmarket: BUZKASHI 20/1 e.w

    A highly encouraging debut behind the well thought of Gosden horse, Fallen For You. If she had then gone on to win her next start at Leicester, never in a million years would this filly be 20/1.

    She simply has to be forgiven for that run, she was travelling all over the winner, My Queenie, who is a 90+ rated horse, and as she was pulled left to mount her challenge, she clipped heels and never recovered.

    I'm prepared to give her another chance even though Samitar sets an exceptional level of form.

    3.00- COUPE DE VILLE 7/1

    Was beaten fairly by Tell Dad last time out but that seemed to be a race in favour of the prominent racers and Richard Hughes prefers Coupe De Ville again. Races off the same mark as Tell Dad here and can reverse the form.

    2.40 Ascot- LOSTINTHEMOMENT 11/4 As most people are aware, Lostinthemoment is being aimed at the Melbourne Cup and has been a fast improving horse. No disgrace in the Ebor (always a messy race) and I think a mile and a half will be the perfect trip today. Arctic Cosmos is an excellent horse but first start for over a year and looked better over further last year. I fancy the Godolphin charge to take this on the way to running in Melbourne.
     
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  2. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    TopClass, Good morning.

    4.05 Gowran Park. Rubi Light 7/4 (Paddy Power)

    Today sees the reappearance, at Gowran Park, of last season’s Queen Mother Champion Chase winner, Sizing Europe.
    Ironically, he has only ever run once over today’s distance of 20 furlongs (and won), but he has run creditably in his two attempts over three miles, most notably when running second to Kauto Star in the JNWINE Champion Chase last November at Down Royal.
    Today’s distance should therefore pose no problem, but he faces a rising star in the shape of Robert Hennessy’s Rubi Light.
    Rubi Light started last season off a mark of 130 when winning just a decent two mile handicap chase under 11st 7lbs at Punchestown.
    He then ran inexplicably badly at Limerick over today’s distance, followed by a decent second to Golden Silver when reverting to two miles.
    From then on, he seemed to thrive.
    Stepping up to 20 furlongs, he slaughtered the useful Roberta Goldback in the Group 2 Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park.
    Off a revised rating of 157, he proceeded to contest only his fifth and final race of the season- the Group One Ryanair Chase at The Festival.
    I have watched this race several times and feel he could have been an unlucky loser..
    Although Alberta’s Run just headed him three out, he was still full of running but seemed to completely ruin his chance with an awful blunder.
    However, from a hopeless position, he started to rally between the last two fences and surged past Poquelin on the run in to take third place behind Alberta’s Run.
    He comes into today’s race off a revised mark of 164, and I feel he is arguably the most improved horse in training.
    Today will gauge his progress against a 177 Chaser, Sizing Europe. He’s only 6 years old and his German sire , Network ( also Sprinter Sacre), seems to impart plenty of stamina to his progeny.
    Although his Cheltenham effort was on good ground, all his other races were on heavy going.
    I expect big things of this horse and, if he continues his improvement, he could challenge anything this year.
    I accept I’ve put my head on the block and let’s see whether it falls into the tumbrel.<laugh>
     
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  3. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    Morning, troops. Decent, if not spectacular, cards today and I will nominate:

    Arctic Cosmos (2.40 Ascot) - my regular readers will fondly recall this one winning last terms St Leger. Although not sighted since that race, due to injury, you can guarantee that old boy Gosden will have him fit and ready for this following a recent racecourse gallop. Is the clear leader on official ratings and the fact the Arctic Cosmos is not penalised for his Group 1 win is a huge bonus.

    Elzaam (3.15 Ascot) - has had a somewhat in and out campaign but lowered in grade Elzaam can oblige for the first time since May. A very good winner that day he followed that up with an excellent 4th in Royal Ascot's Golden Jubilee Stakes. Has since been slightly disappointing, but not beaten far, in the July And Sprint Cups. Back at an easier level Elzaam should gain his 2nd success of the term.

    Bannock (4.00 Redcar) - this rich sales race should go the way of its classiest runner off a relatively light weight. A dual winner earlier in the campaign Bannock has since been placed 3 times in Listed/Group heats. Last time out was the pick of these efforts when runner-up in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes to the high-class Harbour Watch. This is a much simpler task and Banncok should score as a result.

    As always good luck to all correspondents.
     
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  4. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor Staff Member

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    3.40 Fontwell Geneva Geyser (NAP)

    This is a fascinating rematch between Geneva Geyser and his Uttoxeter conqueror Cygnet and I fancy Lady Herries gelding to reverse that form today. Both horses were upper-80s rated on the flat but crucially Cygnet had the experience edge last time out and was given a very intelligent ride by Henry Brooke. Geneva Geyser has a 3lbs pull for the 3 lengths that day but I think he is open to more improvement than Cygnet and I'm confident he can take this today.

    In other races at Fontwell I like David Pipe's Arab League in the first, he should gain compensation today for just being touched off on debut. At 4.15 we have a very interesting novice chase with Helium, Vertige Dore and Lidar at the head of the market and I have a slight preference for Alan King's gelding (though will probably just be a watching brief).

    At Ascot it looks like it could be a good day for William Buick who holds strong claims in the 3 group races with My Propellor, Arctic Cosmos and Dinkum Diamond. I may add in his ride on Rainfall in the 5.00 for a nice Lucky 15 <ok>

    Best of luck everybody
     
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  5. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    I really like Elzaam today but cannot back it because of who is on it. I also think Arctic Cosmos is the one to beat in his race, however I am with Decent Fella in the big handicap as my nap.

    Over at HQ I fancy a Samitar/Endifaadha double in the sales races with Alkazim looking one of the overpriced dangers in the latters race.

    Decent Fella NAP


    Oh and I had a winning nap yesterday, wonders will never cease!!
     
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  6. chesneywold

    chesneywold Member

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    morning folks. no racing today for me as off to sheffield, flat battery permitting. just came on to say aaaaaaaaaagh bloody ****ting bollocks! feel robbed by Tonga. after tipping up France to be eliminated at the group stage at 50-1, with sound reasoning including les frogslegs losing their heads today, how did Tonga blow it by earlier losing to frigbuggeringmothershitting canada!

    that is all.

    good luck today everyone.
     
    #6

  7. heisenburg

    heisenburg Well-Known Member

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    not looked watching the rugger
    Johny wilks has my boots on i think
     
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  8. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor Staff Member

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    <applause> a most articulate outburst Ches. Have a good time in my home city <ok>
     
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  9. sparkymarky

    sparkymarky Member

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    Morning all!

    Todays Placepots follow....

    Ascot:
    Leg 1: Forevertheoptomist (3) / Rex Imperator (6) / Stoneyfield Flyer (8)
    Leg 2: Quest For Peace (6)
    Leg 3: Genki (1) / Dinkum Diamond (7)
    Leg 4: Smarty Socks (8) / Pastoral Player (9) / Webbow (11)
    Leg 5: Addictive Dream (2) / Monsieur Joe (8) / Move In Time (9) / Albany Rose (13)
    Leg 6: Mosqueras Romance (3) / Dubai Queen (8)
    144 @ 10p
    £14.40

    Newmarket:
    Leg 1: Mitzwaaj (4)
    Leg 2: Samitar (14)
    Leg 3: Talwar (14)
    Leg 4: Butler (7)
    Leg 5: Encke (3)
    Leg 6: Principle Role (1)
    1 @ £15
    £15

    Singles Bets

    Pastoral Player (ew) 3.50 Ascot (NAP)
    He was absolutely flying home in the Ayr Gold Cup, and this trip is far better for him. Needs a strong pace, which he could get, and he is on a nice weight to go very close in this competitive handicap.
    12/1 - Bet365

    Albany Rose (ew) 4.25 Ascot
    Although she is a big price, she has been a revelation for her owners. This is a big step up in class, but she is running consistently, and can sneak into the places.
    50/1 - Sportingbet.
     
    #9
  10. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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    Small stakes e/w Lucky 15 for me today plus a crack at scoop 6

    2.50 Redcar Ginger Jack 10/1
    3.15 Ascot Desert Poppy 12/1
    4.45 Newmarket Poplin 7/1
    5.45 Redcar Amazing Blue Sky 8/1
     
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  11. beatenbyashorthead

    beatenbyashorthead Member

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    Small trixie for me today saving my pennies for tomorrow :)

    2.05 A: My Propeller 6/1
    2.25 N: Buzkashi 20/1
    4.25 A: Astrophysical jet. 7/1

    Good luck to all
     
    #11
  12. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    My Bets today-

    2.25 Nmkt- Samitar - A very good front runner, was unlucky to be mugged on the line last week by Lyric of light and anything close to that form will make her very hard to beat

    3.00 Nmkt- Entifaadah- Only thing that puts me off is Richard hills on board but has won group 3's before; was disappointing last time out in a group 2- but expect him to come close in the drop in class!


    2.40 Ascot- Artic Cosmos- If he repeats his St Leger form from last year will be hard to beat!

    3.50 Ascot- Eton Forever (NAP)- Although got beat by Smarty Socks last time out who is now 7lbs worst off- is always a very consistent horse and expect him to reverse the placings,
     
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  13. Rough Quest

    Rough Quest Member

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    Just a small stakes e/w Lucky 31 today:

    Ascot 2.05 - Stonefield Flyer 6/1
    Ascot 3.15 - Desert Poppy 12/1
    Ascot 3.50 - Joe Packet 10/1 (Nap)
    Ascot 4.25 - Desert Law 11/2
    Ascot 5.35 - Courtland Avenue 25/1

    Good luck all.
     
    #13
  14. heisenburg

    heisenburg Well-Known Member

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    TRIXIE FOR ME

    fAIZ
    BANNOCK
    ONE COOL SHABRA

    STAY FROSTY (even in this heat)
     
    #14
  15. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor Staff Member

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    Arab League at Fontwell
     
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  16. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Amazing to see Samitar go off at odds against. Mr Bookmaker got that one wrong.
     
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  17. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor Staff Member

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    Got to be Arctic Cosmos in the next
     
    #17
  18. heisenburg

    heisenburg Well-Known Member

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    nice winner oddy then ran out of steam, i was on both as well
    one cool shabra here
     
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  19. heisenburg

    heisenburg Well-Known Member

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    :emoticon-0103-cool::emoticon-0103-cool::emoticon-0103-cool:Top class top class again
     
    #19
  20. Ardent1965

    Ardent1965 Well-Known Member

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    Elzaam for me today one bet only. Hope October will be better than Sept for me. Gl to all.
     
    #20

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