Never done the Daily Thread before, so thought i'd take the opportunity seeing as nobody else has done it already. Action from Ascot, Haydock, Huntingdon, Lingfield, Punchestown and Wolverhampton. Betfair Chase The obvious highlight is the Betfair Chase at 3.05 at Haydock where Long Run makes his seasonal reappearance. The Betfair Chase at Haydock tomorrow looks a stellar race on paper. As well as the return of Kauto Star, the reigning Gold Cup and King George champion Long Run, the reigning Hennessy Gold Cup winner Diamond Harry and the 1st and 2nd from the Charlie Hall Weird Al and Time For Rupert are all set to go to post in a fascinating renewal. Diamond Harry - Unbeaten in 5 seasonal reappearances and undoubtedly best when fresh. Took the Hennessy Gold Cup nearly 12 months ago and has not been seen since. He missed the Charlie Hall after getting cast in his box but that might be a blessing in disguise here. Would possibly prefer a little more cut than he is likely to enjoy. Kauto Star - A legend of the game, but on something of a retrieval mission after disappointing at Punchestown last May. That poor display followed an heroic effort behind Long Run in the Gold Cup, and a brave display when off colour in the King George. The easier track here might just play to his strengths (he travelled much the best in the Gold Cup) and he will appreciate the good ground more than anything else. This might be his last race so all fingers crossed for a bold display. Long Run - The new kid on the block after winning both the King George and the Gold Cup last season. Still only 6 and it is perfectly plausible for there to be more improvement to come. Reported to have grown over the summer and he will be a tough nut to crack if fit enough for his seasonal reappearance. This is a trial for the major targets ahead but he is sure to be ready to do himself justice. Pure Faith - Ran Albertas Run close in the Old Roan with Master Minded back in 3rd but faces an even tougher assignment here. Looks outclassed. Time For Rupert - A hot favourite for the RSA Chase at the Festival but could only finish 5th after breaking a blood vessel. Showed he might be up to this level with a good effort in 2nd in the Charlie Hall last month and expected to improve for the run. Doubtful that the good ground and sharper track will bring his stamina into play. Weird Al - A promising novice for Ian Williams a couple of seasons back, but subsequently disappointed in the Hennessy and the Gold Cup last season. Has since joined Donald McCain and won the Charlie Hall in good style. Has always promised to be smart but this is another step up and a career best is required. Conclusion - A top class renewal, and, with just the 6 runners going to post, I think the betting opportunities are limited. Before Rubi Light and Nacarat were taken out, the prospect of three places made the race an extremely attractive betting proposition. I would have been happy to take Long Run on in that scenario, but as the race has shaped up, I think there is little value in taking him on unless you truly fancy something to beat him. I think the Charlie Hall form might prove to be a little suspect, and, I would therefore be inclined to side with Diamond Harry for those purposes. I put him up for the Charlie Hall but he suffered a knock in the racecourse stables. That should not be a concern here and he would probably be my selection against the favourite. I also think that Kauto Star has a decent chance of running a big race and it would be no surprise at all to see him put in a bold show. That said it would be disappointing if Long Run was unable to start the season with a win. He looked very good last year and would expect him to take this before going on to more glory in the big prizes later in the year. At 11/10 I think he rates a decent bet because his recent form is comfortably the best. I will also be cheering Kauto Star home, hoping that he can justify continuing his quite brilliant career, or at least bow out in respectable fashion. Conditions are in his favour, and it is by no means beyond the realms of possibility that the fairytale victory might just come true. What a great moment it would be if he could roll back the clock for one final time. Here's hoping. Long Run - 11/10 - Paddy Power and William Hill
Zenyatta, I don't know whether I'd call it a "stellar renewal," as you say, or rather a Grade One where we've managed to get six horses to post. It's ironic that the outsider, Pure Faith, has had as many races in 2011 as the other five runners put together ie. 9 runs only! Apart from possibly Long Run, there are more ifs and buts about this field than one's imagination can cope with. If Long Run wins, it may not tell you too much- apart from his wellbeing. If he loses, then excuses will be made- seasonal debut, fitter opponents, etc. Let's face it, he HAS to beat these at level weights to justify a ridiculously short price for both Kempton and Cheltenham. If he doesn't, then last year's Gold Cup win will have been overhyped- in defeating two top horses (Denman and Kauto) who were on a really downward curve. The Gold Cup will then have a far more open look, and punters will really start speculating. It's a pity Rubi Light has been ruled out. Where are all these injuries and setbacks coming from nowadays? Also Captain Chris, Hurricane Fly (again)..they just go on and on!
I am strongly of the opinion that numbers are not everything. I would rather have a race with 5 competitive horses than field of 16 with only a couple having realistic chances. I think it is fair to say that it is a 'stellar renewal'. Kauto Star and Long Run have won 5 King Georges and 3 Gold Cups between them. Diamond Harry, Weird Al and Time For Rupert represent the best of the upcoming British staying division. There are 4 of the top 6 or 7 in the betting for the Gold Cup engaged, and for this time of year, i would classify that as a pretty damn good line-up. I fully appreciate that there are question marks surrounding many of the runners but is that not always the case? Certainly a 'stellar renewal' as far as I'm concerned.
Have to agree with Tam. These imaginary and insignificant injuries and minor maladies are a way of avoiding meaningful competiton in the now ridiculously cluttered pattern race and "condition" race calendar. One only has to recall two seasons past when Nicholls complained that he was struggling to find a suitable race for Kauto Star.Cue the Kempton executive and BHA with a plan to invent a race for him...utterly ridiculous. I rememeber Night Nurse winning tomorrows Amlin GC when it was the Buchanan Whiskey Gild Cup H'CAP at odds of 11/2,beating the bold front running I'm A Driver,after blowing out the week before in the then Mackeson GC.I was 10 at the time but they remain some of my favourites! Amazing,a dual Champion Hurdler running in handicap chases in consecutive weeks!...the mind boggles. Do you remember those races in 1979 Tam?
Some great racing on Saturday. No bet for me in the Bet Fair Chase as now down to 6 runners but would plump for Weird Al. My schekels will be on Gurtacrue Haydock 1.55 7/1 and Carmela Maria Hunt 3.30 6/1 in singles and EW double. Have to share this one with you all - playing scrabble with 9 year old step daughter and was accused of cheating (as if)!. You can't have that, it's not a word, your cheating she exclaimed! What do you mean I replied? Doctor ain is not a word she said, arms crossed, head tilted and throwing me that look!!! On checking I replied it's not Doctor ain its Drain. How we laughed (well I did anyway). p.s I won....... dominoes next week.
I'm with the little one Follow...I've never heard of Dr Ain either...Dr "bones" Mc Coy,Dr Who,Dr Crippen,Dr Livingstone,Dr Watson,Dr Kildare,Dr Jekyll,Dr Phil or even the fabulous Dr Dre perhaps...but Dr Ain?..
3.05 Haydock: KAUTO STAR (13/2) Hasn't looked at his best in his last few starts. But if there is one time to catch him right, it might be fresh. In Nacarat's absence, I wonder if Time For Rupert will be ridden boldly enough to look to dictate the race. I think the race might just play to Kauto's strengths and that he might be able to track the pace, if not dictate it. He has to remain lightly raced as in the 2011/12 season and I find it very interesting that they have chosen to race him in the Betfair. Denman's seasonal target is simply the Gold Cup, and Nicholls has made no bones about that. I jut wonder if they have mapped out a 2 race plan for Kauto Star to bow out at Kempton Park. They have made a conscious effort to make sure he is "the fittest they have ever had him" at this stage of the season, which I think is a little bit revealing. He has nothing to prove to anyone but his well being, and all that matters tomorrow is that he comes home safely. I just fancy that they have decided to say 'lets simplify things for him- get him at the flat tracks and have him fit and fresh to do himself justice'. Have you ever heard them sound so keen to have him fit at this stage of the season? Terrific lineup in prospect though and an interesting race tactically. Time For Rupert would have a big chance if they were bold and went looking to dominate from the front, but I wonder if they will ride him agressively enough tomorrow. The ground hasn't dropped right for him. 2.10 Ascot: MASTER MINDED 13/8 Have to say, it would be extrememly disappointing if he put in a below par display here. I'm personally a big fan of Somersby and think he is a potential massive improver this season as he goes up in trip, and is actually the one of the two I would have for the King George, regardless of how stupid I may sound. However, today is absolutely Master Minded's trip. Not too quick enough to do him for pace, and not long enough to do him for stamina. I suspect he'll be spot on fitness wise, as Nicholls would not make the same mistake twice, and over this course and distance he is capable of giving Somersby 4lb. I look forward to a rematch at Kempton on Boxing Day, whatever happens. 2.30 Haydock: KAYF ARAMIS 25/1 e.w- Disappointing on reappearance but had I known this race was just 10 days after, it would have been apparant that it was a pipe-opener. This is a much bigger pot to win and Twisters is no mug- he'll have had this in mind. I hope for a much better showing and off 135 would have big place claims if returning to anything like its best.
http://betfairlayking.weebly.com/index.html Selection number 12 is up after we made it 9 from 11 yesterday, remaining at £6.25 profit for level £1 stake.
Zenyatta, no, there's nothing wrong with small fields per se, but I ask you, five of our top rated horses have had only 9 races between them since the start of the year! They're kept in cotton wool and yet they're injured all the time. Dexter, yes, I remember the races but I didn't remember Night Nurse ran two weeks running in them. Yet the top horses did have busy careers, didn't they? Five or even only four runs maximum seems the norm nowadays.
I'm following Bluesky's lead and doing a tenner trixie on my 3 big fancies today - Weird Al, Master Minded and King Of The Night. Can't believe many professional scribes writing up of the Betfair Chase: Diamond Harry: "Impressive Hennessey winner who goes well fresh - big chance" Weird Al: "Won Charlie Hall first time out but will need to improve again to win this" Can anyone tell me why Diamond Harry won't need to improve again to win this? His Henessey form will be nowhere near good enough, and he has had more problems than a chav's girlfriend.
Just got a mail from totesport with the following "special offer": Long Run reappears at Haydock today where he faces the likes of Kauto Star, Diamond Harry and Time For Rupert in the Betfair Chase. We're offering 9/4* that he wins today and follows up in the King George on Boxing Day and 13/2* that he completes the Betfair Chase/King George/Gold Cup treble.
Strange morning, Got an email from Ladbrokes about a £50 free matched bet, which I duly took (as I really fancy Somersby today) and was amazed to see them give me two free £50 bets. Those bets have gone on Lough Derg EW and Highland Valley EW. Somersby to me looks to be the horse to be with in the Amlin, he jumps well and he stays further than this. I can see him stalking Master Minded and going past him up the straight and beating off Medermit in the finish. If he was trained by a different trainer I would be getting even more stuck in. Lough Derg was entitled to want his run back at Exeter and now returns to a happy romping ground of his. I think he will get most of these off the bridle and I think he could upset the applecart here. This race is much tougher than many think and I do wonder if the Pipe horse is the one who is going to land the prize. 9 wins or places in 13 visits to Ascot means to me that 25/1 is too big. Highland Valley is a very interesting runner in the fixed brush hurdle, a race in which many are starting their preps for this seasons Grand National!!! I think Highland Valley is one of a few who is really unexposed and could easily run to a mark well above the handicappers starting point this season. I really like its form, especially its effort at Cheltenham in December 2010 and I think 12/1 is too big.
The big one might be short on numbers, but I think it's a cracking race. There are so many ifs and buts tied in with it all. If Long Run can reproduce his form from his last campaign? If Kauto Star is anywhere near his best, or is he over the hill? No matter what's said about Weird Al's form in the past, he just might be a different horse in McCain's hands. That was a pretty decent win in the Charlie hall. Throw in the possible time bombs of Time For Rupert and Diamond Harry, and who knows what can happen. Pure Faith is probably the weakest of them, but he did beat Master Minded home. PS Well done on the DT Zenyatta.
I've got this dark foreboding that I could be sitting here at 5.00 thinking to myself "why didn't you just lump on the Long Run / Oscar Whiskey double and keep it simple?"
Very good blog by Barry Geraghty on ATR. Looks like he will be worth following on Monday at Kempton. I would love to see more of this type of info flyong around http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?ref=redirect&hlid=520760&lid=at the races blogs
OK, big change of mind for me. Trixie and an additional treble (per Bluesky's model) on Long Run, Master Minded and Oscar Whiskey with an e/w dabble on Weird Al just in case. It will all end in tears I reckon
selections for today 3.20 Ascot Darceys Dancer 11/1 1.30 Ascot Cool Friend 13/2 3.40 Haydock Chief Dan George 12/1 2.40 Haydock Rival D'Estruval 15/2 1.55 Haydock Jaunty Journey 12/1 12.50 Haydock Westlin Winds 14/1
Morning chaps - new motherboard in place no more Ipod typing woooop hope you are all well cracking days racing - and very nervous about the toons game against City yikeesss
Morning all saving lives all weekend wont be watching but may be listening The Don is up North to see his P to P's and Dappers Dancer, but im busy and wont catch up with him, but if he posts Follow !!!!!!! Today Ascot Kalahari King is tuned up AND will run a good race, can it beat the big names, prob not but will be going for it Gilbarry EW Haydock Eyre Square Wins Benny B Good EW Chief Dan George EW Diamond Harry just might pull this out of the bag Stay Frosty ps expecting Text from Willie soon
Morning all! Haydock: Leg 1: Domtaline (3) Leg 2: Wyse Hill Teabags (5) / Harry Punt (8) / Attaglance (10) Leg 3: Granville Island (2) / Balinroab (3) Leg 4: According To Pete (3) / You Know Yourself (4) Leg 5: Sa Suffit (14) / Global Power (16) / Highland Valley (18) Leg 6: Diamond Harry (1) / Weird Al (6) 72 @ 25p £18 Ascot: Leg 1: Deireadh Re (4) Leg 2: Ballagio (3) / Iheardu (4) Leg 3: Cool Friend (2) / American Ladie (5) Leg 4: Somersby (2) Leg 5: King Of The Knight (5) Leg 6: Torphichen (6) / King Edmund (7) 8 @ £1.50 £12 Singles Bets: Somersby 2.10 Ascot (NAP) Won in a small fieldl at Kempton last time out. He gave Master Minded something to think about at Ascot before, and if he jumps well again, he can upset the fav despite this being a tougher race. Trip will be fine. 2/1 Various King Of The Night 2.45 Ascot He is up against it with the fav, but he was very impressive at Kempton and he could be open to further improvement. The trip should be no problem, and he can make the fav work hard today. 100/30 Various Good Luck!
