Lingfield 1.00 Thunderstruck 9/1 Got to stick with Thunderstruck who ended a very long losing sequence LTO when winning over C+D on his first for Scott Dixon 10 days ago under tomorrows jockey Ian *****n. Off a mark of 81, and unfortunately from the same horrible draw he had to overcome 10 days ago, *****n got this 7 year old into a prominent position before taking up the running 6f from the finish. *****n kicked Thunderstruck on for home coming into the home straight and he was tremendously game and really relished the battle thrown down to him and it was a truly excellent ride and it was his first victory since 2010. As a result of that victory, Thunderstruck has been raised 5lb to a mark of 86 and although he will have to defy a career best effort to win, I really think he is able to overcome this challenge. Dixon seems to have unlocked the key to his former self and he has a few pieces of form of this same mark that lead me to believe that he can score off this mark. He finished a head 2nd in a Class 2 event back in March 2010 and a 2L defeat in a Class 3 event the same month so on this basis he has shown he can be very competitive off this mark. Another very interesting thing to note is that Thunderstruck's successes usually precede one another, with back to back wins occurring the last twice he won which is certainly another good sign. Like LTO, Dixon makes the near 7 hour round trip for his only runner of the day so it looks like he is making the journey with a horse he expects to run a big race. I'm delighted *****n is back on board as he rode him so well LTO and it would have been disappointing if he wasn't tomorrows jockey. Like I said, Stall 12 is a horrible stall for this horse who likes to lead or be very prominent but he overcame this stall the last day and it certainly isn't an insurmountable task. He's stepped up to a Class 3 tomorrow after winning a Class 4 the last day but given his effort off this mark in a Class 2 event before I am not concerned that this will prevent him from running a very good race. There seem to be two other front runners in the shape of Mawaakef and Cashelgar so this will help him get to the front early on and I think his game nature will not mean these other front runners will ruin his chances and should be incredibly difficult to pass.Trainer Scott Dixon has made a superb start to his career and continues in great form with 5 wins and 5 places from his first 17 runners and I think 9/1 vastly overestimates his chances and really hope he can repeat his previous sequences of racking up back to back wins.
1.20 Punchestown Andreas Answer FC 6/1 Like the look of J.P Fogarty's 8 year old who is in good form at present and appears on the upgrade on the basis of his last few efforts. The main reason I am putting Andreas Answer up is that he finished just ahead of The Hard Hat, a horse I am quite fond of, on his latest start when finishing a 2.5L beaten 2nd behind In Great Form, although the winning margin is a bit kind to Andreas Answer as In Great Form was heavily eased at the end and could have won much easier, but he's a very well handicapped horse. However, The Hard Hat is a fine bench mark and there was a lot to like about this effort as he was headed in the run in before staying on strongly at the finish at Fairyhouse over 3m1f earlier this month. He was 5lb out of the handicap that day racing off a mark of effectively 93, and he's up 3lb from that effort to a mark of 96. His last effort was the 4th consecutive good performances, with 2 2nds and 3rd coming in this sequence with a fall at last when holding every chance the other effort to emerge from the 4. He seems to have been a bit unlucky running into well handicapped horses recently. 4 starts ago he finished 2nd to Groody Hill who is a very progressive animal who has won 2 of his last 3 starts with his final effort a fantastic 3rd in a Grade B Handicap at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival off a 27lb higher mark. Andrea's other 2 completed efforts were both behind In Great Form who seems to be progressing at a rate of naughts. The talented Tom Doyle takes the ride again after missing out the last ride but he's partnered him several times before that and the pair seem to get on very well together. He'll have to defy a career high mark of 96 to land this but he's in great form at present. He's finished 2nd twice and Punchestown from 4 efforts so clearly goes well at the track and the trip and ground should be ideal. Its a bit of a concern that the trainer is winnerless in 11 months but Andreas Answer has run well enough to let me overlook this stat and hopefully we'll get slightly bigger than the 6/1 thats forecast
3.00 Punchestown Joxer FC 4/1 Really like the look of Billy Harney's unexposed and improving 5 year old who was rather impressive on his hurdling debut at the Christmas Festival at Leopardstown when running Midnight Game to 0.5L, with the front 2 drawing clear from the rest of the field. Before this, he had 2 starts in bumpers and finished 1st and 2nd in these two races. He was very well backed on his debut from 20/1 into 12/1 and ended up winning narrowly in a tight finish but it was a very encouraging debut. He travelled into the race nicely and when asked to go and win the race he was very green (lacking racecourse experience) which is a common occurrence for horses who are new to racing with his trainer saying afterwards "I think he's a real good horse.” On his 2nd start Joxer put in a very good effort to finish 4.5L beaten 2nd to Moscow Mannon who was a winner at the Galway Festival in the summer and has now won his last 2 starts. Once again, Joxer travelled into the race nicely and showed signs of greenness again as he ran a bit all over the place in the run in but he bumped into a very promising horse whose trainer also really really likes him. The front 2 that day drew well clear and Joxer lost nothing in defeat that day. Before his hurdling debut Billy Harney said “he's such an unreal horse to jump” and really seems to rate this horse a lot. Its also very telling to note that Joxer was entered into a Listed hurdle race before being withdrawn late on which again indicates how good a horse he could be. He should come on a lot for the experience of his debut over hurdles and looks a potentially exciting recruit. He'll have his work cut out for him beating Allure of Illusion, who won his debut bumper before finishing 3rd in a Grade 2 bumper at Aintree behind the very talented Steps to Freedom and Montbazon, on his hurdling debut and I think that both these horses are going to go on to much bigger and better things. Certainly not one to go all in on but I think he's certainly worth a bet in what looks a very hot contest I'm sure RV will be following suit with this I think John Ferguson's horses speak for themselves so I'll refrain from doing write ups on them. I like both of them, although Cotton Mill has a really tough task ahead of him. Doing the double on both Warwick 12.50 Monarch's Way 9/2 3.05 Cotton Mill 3/1
My 5 tomorrow (for the comp): 1.05 Kempton Kumbeshwar - looking more assured with every run and can expose the chinks in Menorah's jumping 1.25 Warwaick Frascati Park - top form behind Zaynar and Kumbeshwar, I would have him EVS for this so 2/1 is a massive price for me 2.50 Kempton Swincombe Flame (NAP) - the Lanzarote is ultra-competitive as you would expect but the mare just jumps off the page to me and I think she can turn this into a procession 3.40 Warwick Major Malarkey - Paddy Brennan doing 10 stone for the Twister, I'm taking the hint 3.50 Kempton Lucaindubai -well fancied last Saturday and ran a cracker behind Ciceron. This looks less competitive and it looks like he has come out of last weeks race well (or he wouldn't be running, right? IN that we have to trust). Others I like: Flaming Charmer in the Warwick bumper Patent on the 3 Don McCain / Jason Maguire runners at Wetherby - Real Milan (12.40), Bunclody (1.15) and Doyly Carte (4.00) Probably worth doing a trixie on Ruby's 3 at Punchestown as well All weather and inspection dependent of course
Early one from me for tomorrow lads, think there's some value to be had with the 25s available on Pause and Clause, e/w that is. Sliding down the weights - runs off of 132 tomorrow when he has been rated 145 and won at the Cheltenham festival off of 137 - due to a string of disappointments. That said, this season he probably needed the first run and then was last seen lumping top weight round at Kempton on King George day. With a claimer on board - for the first time in years - taking 10lbs off I think that, with four places paid, I'll be playing e/w with small stakes. edit, 2.30 at Warwick is the race btw ! I think Xenophon is interesting in the 3.50 at Kempton and 10/1 provides e/w value with a lot of weight off his back if the handicapper has been fair with his mark.
15.40 Warwick- Hey Big Spender E/W - fell in the Welsh National last time but he's usually a sound jumper and he was just getting into that race at the time. It was his first attempt at 3m5f he's always shaped like a proper, strong stayer. He goes through this tacky winter ground better than most as he's a big, strong horse with an engine and he's capable of carrying big weights in this sort of contest. A handicap mark of 156 doesn't look harsh at all on his recent efforts and just under a year ago he won around here off top weight over two-and-a-half miles where he really took to the course. There's plenty of horses in this race with something to prove and at 11/1 it could pay to back Hey Big Spender to outclass his rivals.
My other Selections for tomorrow- 2.15 Kempton- Caribinier 2.30 Warwick- Dorset Sq & & Mobassher e/w- Is @ a lower weight than when winning this 12 months ago! 2.50 Kempton- Well Regarded & Rajdhanni Express E/w 3.05 Warwick- Highland Lodge 3.20 Kempton- Fine Parchment e/w
Menorah looks ideal for Toppy to take down tomorrow (again). 4/9 (that was his price when I checked) looks a good lay to me. Should win but not sure he should be that short.
Glad to see someone else likes Rajdhani Express. I'm sure there's a fair amount of improvement to come, plus he's got the bad boy of the weighing room helping out. Have decided just now to go to Kempton tomorrow though it's a horrible looking card for punting purposes. If anyone's going and fancies meeting up let me know. Good luck all.
Good morning, members. My fancy for today runs at Warwick. Handy Andy didn't take to fences on his only run this season, but last year beat recent Ascot winner, Our Father, very easily at Newbury- and then pulled muscles in a 3 mile Grade One at Aintree. Back over hurdles today, he has the very attractive weight of 10st 8lbs and should go close for Joe Tizzard. Handy Andy (2.30 Warwick) Best Price...18/1 Betfair.
Just in from willie "Dano me boyo listen,Sgent Guib’s has his first run for us in the 2m 4f conditions hurdle. He won a hurdle race in France but is a real novice chaser in the making. He will like the ground and trip and should go well here if he takes to the Irish type hurdles. Ut De Sivola goes for the 4yo hurdle over 2 miles. He avoids any penalties in this grade 3 and will handle the heavy ground. If he can show improvement from his debut win at Clonmel he should ru"n a big race today. Allure Of Illusion runs in the 2 mile maiden hurdle. We hold him in high regard but, being by Captain Rio, he would prefer better ground in the spring (Just ask ya pal Nass, he knows his onions that fella) This is his first run over hurdles and that lack of experience could tell against the likes of Joxer (i see ROTO has put him up, he also knows his veg) who ran Midnight Game to half a length at Leopardstown over Christmas. Robin Angevin runs in the bumper. He has been very disappointing so far but was given a break and seems to have come back in good form. His best runs have been on good ground but hopefully he will make a race of it with The Mighty Milan, who looks the one to beat, so there ya go big fella winners a plenty and a hat trick for Ruby, see ya on the otherside and stay frosty!"
these late inspections are a pain in the nads. not due to set off til 10 tho so not too bad. Nightmare for those driving horseboxes from the west country at 6am.
Morning all! Hopefully the meeting at Kempton will go ahead. Kempton: Leg 1: Dubawi Dancer (2) / State Senator (10) Leg 2: Kumbeshwar (2) / Alasi (3) Leg 3: Captain Sunshine (3) Leg 4: Like a Hurricane (3) / Reblis (3) Leg 5: Domtaline (5) / Act Of Kalanisi (8) / Well Regarded (11) Leg 6: Coup Royale (9) / Triangular (10) / Soixante (11) 72 @ 20p £14.40 Warwick: Leg 1: Up to the Mark (3) / Henok (7) / Roll the Dice (8) Leg 2: Alfie Spinner (3) / Golden Chieftain (5) Leg 3: Educated Evans (1) / Roi De Rouge (6) Leg 4: Barwell Bridge (3) / Dorset Square (4) / Saffran De Cotte (13) Leg 5: Highland Lodge (4) Leg 6: Major Malarkey (10) / Strongbows Legend (13) / Morning Moment (14) 108 @ 15p £16.20
