I fully expect KILLALA QUAY to continue Charlie's brilliant run of form but I am opposing his other runner PETE THE FEAT tomorrow with my main bet. I wouldn't want to put any of you off Pete The Feat especially as I know Mr Longsdon still doesn't think we have seen the best of him but he is opposed tomorrow by a horse I really like! COURT BY SURPRISE 5.45 Chepstow 8-1 is a beast of a horse and looked set for a sparkling season when beating Night In Milan last season only to be hit by whatever curse/bug hit the Lavelle yard. In recent weeks the yard has proven its well being and I fully expect this lovely horse to now resume his progression. After two lack lustre runs he is only a few pounds higher than he was for his last success and he can regain the winning thread tomorrow.
I am hoping that BALDER SUCCES can make a successful transition to fences in the Novice Chase. Reports are glowing from the King yard and this boy was high class in his juvenile year. At least two trainers will go home unhappy after the bumper as I believe that Mrs Curtis (Minella On Line) and Harry Fry (Thomas Brown) both believe their charges to be very good but I think OSCARTEEA is going to make his racecourse experience pay tomorrow. He was a big baby last year but has come on leaps and bounds over the summer and can win this before going hurdling. Its a very hot bumper and several future winners will come out of this race! Finally I have to have a bet on my old mate THECORNISHCOCKNEY Nkt 3.50 66-1. He will probably trade even higher in running as he is an extreme hold up horse but he will relish the trip and be staying on when others have cried enough. I suspect he has been saved for this as there have been ample races he could have won over two miles on the AW. It would be rude of me not to back him!
Stick I would worry about Balder Succes both in terms of trip and ground tomorrow - over hurdles he was a 2 miler with cut. Despite the weight concession I can see Double Ross leading him a merry dance tomorrow. I think Sam will set out to make all - he knows his horse gets further and could take some pegging back - 5lbs is not too much of a weight concession. My bookmaker is paying first 6 in the Cesarewitch and has tempted me into an e/w dabble on Roger Charlton's Clowance Estate. The 4YO Teofilo gelding goes off 93 here with Graham Lee on board and put up a fine effort last time out when trying to give Platinum 3lbs. He has a 4lbs pull with that one for 1.75 lengths and I will be trying to grab a bit of 20s e/w in the morning. Nice low draw at 2 and with this being a "National Hunt" distance I'm hopeful Graham Lee will get his fractions spot on. Going to watch the England match now - I know I'll regret it ......................
Crikey is it Saturday already? Not keen on the time flying by so fast at my age. I'm going 2 against the field in the Coral Sprint Cup. Doc Hay. Selected him last time out but ended up running in a small group. Prefers a strong gallop in a big field and come late. The extra furlong tomorrow should be a plus. Hallelujah. Another who likes a strong gallop and will appreciate the give in the ground Haven't seen the odds yet so hope they are OK. Will have a closer look at half time.
Lads if we had treve on with bet365 does that mean we have a free bet on the first ch4 race tomorrow? Hope you can help Gazman
3.50 Newmarket- Cesarewitch. Smoky Hill (Nap). Very sad that no three year olds contest the race- another big handicap on the decline? French horse Smoky Hill comes here after a win at Maisons-Laffitte followed by a fine fourth (beaten only three lengths) by previous Group Two and Group One winners, Domeside and Les Beaufs. Getting 13lbs from Class Two winners, Tiger Cliff and Oriental Fox, suggest the French horse has been let in light. Win or lose, I couldn't oppose him in a very mediocre field. Prices vary from 6/1 to 9/1, but Betfair offer a current 11/1 Win and 11/4 Place.
Hi guys (big thanks to Stickwise) and all the other great tipping this week - cheers fellas - If anyone follows pricewise religiously like I do - his 5 for tomorrow are - trumpet major 2.05 new - baccarat 3.30 York and then his 3 in the caesaritwich are Tiger Cliff / Domination / Big Easy - good luck all ! - Stick still got the free bet - any advice for tomorrow ??
3.30 York Humidor 28/1 There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Humidor has a big race in him and off a mark 99 with the excellent Thomas Brown taking a very handy 3lb off I'm hoping that he gains a richly deserved first success in over 2 years. George Baker's 6 year old sprinter is a very decent animal on his day and I think today's 6f trip at York with cut in the ground will be ideal for him today. A very admirable servant to connections, this 6 time winner's career highlight undoubtedly came when a strong finishing 4th in last years Nunthorpe whilst he was also an incredibly strong finishing 6th from an impossible position in the Group 2 King George's Stakes at Goodwood last year. Although he's winless in over 25 months, he seems to retain all his enthusiasm for the game. For the most part, Humidor has ran consistently well this season without quite making the frame and this well travelled individual looks to be on a very workable mark of 99 in this typically tough handicap. Having started off the year with an excellent 4th in Meydan over 6f off a mark of 109 back in March, Humidor returned to the UK with an very decent 2nd to the talented Spirit Quartz in a Conditions Race at Nottingham back in April. He then was sent to France for his next 2 starts when running very credibly on both occasions when a fast finishing 2L beaten 7th at Longchamp over 5f in a Group 3 and he was also beaten about the same distance in a Listed Race at Maisons-Laffittes back in June. He was perhaps a little disappointing on at Goodwood and Leicester recently but neither were awful efforts either. He was staying on in the Stewards Cup (would never have been involved) when hampered off a mark of 104 last month and on the face of it he looked like he spurned a good opportunity to get back into the winners enclosure when only 3rd in a Conditions Race at Leicester. Sent off a 7/4 shot over 5f at Leicester on good to firm ground, Humidor was held out the back of the 5 runner field and he found the pace too quick for him before staying on to be a 2L beaten 3rd in a race that has worked out well. On his website the next day, George Baker says he needs it "proper soft" to be effective over the minimum trip these days and I definitely agree as he has been seen to run on strongly on many of his races over 5f on good ground. His final start came in the Ayr Gold Cup off a mark of 102 and having travelled very well he got absolutely no split at any stage as he came home a respectable 11th. Since that run, he was balloted out of the Prix De L'Abbaye last Sunday (a race in which he ran an excellent 7th last year) and he comes here off a mark of 99 that I know he is more than capable of being very competitive off this mark if getting the run of things. In today's contest, the excellent Thomas Brown (2-5 for yard, 2-2 owner) takes the ride and he is worth every ounce of his 3lb claim and Humidor has bagged a very decent draw in stall 20 given the middle to high numbers seemed to be advantageous today and although I'm not sure how soft the ground will be come race time I'm sure whatever ease prevalent will be suitable for Humidor. With trainer George Baker in excellent form at the moment and with Humidor running an excellent race on his only visit to the Knavesmir in last years Nunthorpe, if getting a charmed run through the field I expect a very big performance from this 6 year old and with only 7lb covering the entire field hopefully Humidor can gain a long overdue win at a great price of 28/1
3.50 Newmarket Smoky Hill 10/1, Recession Proof 25/1 & Platinum 25/1 Given the incredibly open nature of the Cesarewitch's 36 runner field, I'm taking 3 against the field and hopefully all 3 can run big races with one of them grabbing the top prize. The first of which is Mikael Delzangles self proclaimed "well handicapped" Smoky Hill who makes his British and handicap debut off a mark of 91. A lightly raced and progressive 4 year old, Smoky Hill followed up a comfortable success at Maison-Laffittes over 12f with an excellent 4th in a Group 3 at Lonchamps over just shy of 2m last month where he looked an out and out stayer and given the first 2 home Domeside and Les Beaufs had previously won Group 2 and Group 1 races in France it makes the form look very pleasing and his mark of 91 look potentially very lenient. The extremely shrewd Delzangles has stated that he nearly ran him in the Group 1 Prix du Cadron on Arc day which I think says a lot about how he rates this Grey Colt and from an ok draw in stall 14 I think Smoky Hill looks an extremely live contender in this massive field marathon. The second of the horses I like the look of is another fascinating contender in the shape of John Quinn's 7 year old Recession Proof who shaped quite well on his first start for 908 days at York last month, who looks potentially very well handicapped off a mark of 82 and for whom the booking of the outstanding Irish apprentice Connor King looks very significant. When trained by Simon Callaghan on the flat until 2010, Recession Proof was a pretty decent handicapper reaching a peak rating of 91 (winner off 88 on July course over 15f) but it wasn't until joining John Quinn and going over jumps before he really came into his own as he had an outstanding Novice Hurdle season in the 2010-2011 season. A winner of 3 hurdle races including the Grade 3 Totesport Trophy off a mark of 134, Recession Proof was last seen over hurdles running a blinding 5th in a brilliant renewal of the Supreme Hurdle back in 2011 and its very unfortunate that injury curtailed what look a really exciting national hunt prospect as he was absent for 2 and a half years before his belated return at York last month. Clearly desperately in need of the run and undoubtedly going to come on an absolute truck load for the outing, Recession Proof definitely shaped as if much of his ability remains and off a mark of 82 he could be a very well handicapped animal. Having bagged a brilliant draw in stall 3, Recession Proof represents the connections of last year's runner up Countrywide Flame who is also better known for his hurdling exploits and I think it is very telling that Recession Proof lines up here today given John Quinn clearly knows the type of horse to go close with in this race and the Irish born North Yorkshire based trainer has his horses in very good form at the moment. The booking of the brilliant 5lb claimer Connor King is ridiculously eye catching with the Irish apprentice coming over for this ride and when taking his allowance into account Recession Proof gets in at an absolute featherweight of just 7-11 - the joint lowest weight King has ridden at in the past 12 months. Although the dreaded bounce factor is a possibility just 32 days after his return from a long absence and he may well need another run or 2 to get him back to peak fitness, everything points to an absolutely huge run from Recession Proof today and if this 7 year old retains his ability of old then the 25/1 currently on offer could be made to look absolutely ridiculous come 4 O'Clock for this animal who will enjoy likely underfoot conditions. The final of my 3 stabs at this minefield comes in the shape of Phil Kirby's 6 year old Platinum who is in the form of his life and I think he looks unjustly forgotten in the market at 25/1 in search of a 4 timer under a 4lb penalty. Talented when trained on the flat in France for Andre Fabre, Platinum came to Phil Kirby after a brief stint with Rebecca Curtis in 2011 and it hasn't been until very recently that quickly rising star in dual purpose trainer Kirby has gotten the best out of this son of Azamour and he has landed a hat trick in fine style. After winning at Catterick back in August off a mark of 79, Platinum ran out a convincing winner over 2m at Musselburgh off 81 later that month and his improvement showed no signs of stopping when landing the Old Borough Cup at Haydock last month. Off a mark of 90 and under today's regular pilot Russ Kennemore, Platinum ran out a convincing winner of that valuable prize over 14f at Haydock by 1.25L and he was definitely more value for his margin of victory as he was well in control at the finish. Directly behind him that day were the reopposing Clowance Estate and current favourite Pallastor and although the latter is likely to improve for that first run in a year I think the astronomical price disparity is ridiculous given that there is only a 4lb pull between the rivals. Racing here under a 4lb penalty, Platinum is undoubtedly in the form of his life and although the draw in stall 21 could have been kinder he still looks like a horse who the handicapper has not caught up with yet and if a little younger and hailing from a more illustrious stable there is no doubt he'd be a much shorter price. Although not guaranteed to stay the 18f trip, the rain fall should definitely help Platinum and I'm hoping for a big run from him at a 25/1 price tag that I think is a vast misrepresentation of his chances.
5.45 Chepstow Ace High 11/1 Victor Dartnall's extremely lightly raced 9 year old has had just 8 starts to date and having ran a blinder in this race last year after a similar absence when 3rd under top weight off a 6lb higher mark I'm hoping he can go two better here today and score today under Jack Doyle. A horse whose clearly had his issues and looks a tough training task, Ace High looked an extremely exciting prospect when routing the talented pair of Duke Of Lucca (reopposes today) and subsequent Welsh Grand National winner Teaforthree over C+D back in October 2011 in a Begginers Chase and its unfortunate he's only had 2 runs since then. The first of those subsequent outings came in last years renewal of this contest when Ace High ran an absolute blinder from the front under top weight from a 6lb higher mark from 142 in a race that has worked out really well. Travelling into the long home straight, Ace High was comfortably travelling the best of all but his welter burden of 11-12 seemed to take effect as he faded to finish a very respectable 5.5L beaten 3rd. The form of that race looks very strong with the winner Lost Glory, who came into the contest on the back of an easy win at Stratford, subsequently scoring this year off a 4lb higher mark whilst the 4th and 5th home Harouet and Golden Chieftain both scored on their next outings to give the form a really good look. Ace High's last run came at Ascot in a Grade 3 handicap last November when sent off a well backed 4/1 favourite but he never went a yard that day and was disappointingly pulled up and you've got to put a line through that run and given his long absence something may well have been wrong with him. Kindly dropped 6lb by the handicapper, Ace High looks on a very workable mark of 136 judged on his run in this last year and coming here on the back of a very similar absence I think he looks primed for a very big showing. Having had to shoulder top weight last year, Ace High has a much nicer racing weight of 11 stone today which should definitely help him in the closing stages. Seen at best effect when going from the front, I'm slightly concerned that Ace High looks likely to face opposition for the lead but he certainly didn't crawl along from the front last year in this contest and it would be great, although unlikely, if he got an easy time of things at the head of the field. With the light rain forecast, Ace High looks like having his ideal conditions of good to soft ground and having run a blinder in this last year off a 6lb higher mark just 2 starts ago I'm hoping this time around this 9 year old can go to better to score on what will be just his 9th career start.
That looks a belting bumper to round of the Chepstow card Stick. Very interesting quote from Colin Tizzard with regards to debutant Spending Time recently "He is just getting the hang of things on the gallops and it is quite exciting watching him work,He is the first bumper horse we have had who gave me the 'wow' factor on the gallops.I hope he is going to be worth looking out for." Could be a very bold statement if he means its the first bumper horse they've ever had that gives them the "wow factor" given what Cue Card did. He may only mean this season though. Will keep an eye on the market but you'd be stunned if it didn't turn out to be a strong race in time.
First show from Skybet and they go 8/1 Spending Time - that will do for me, he was the one who jumped off the page at me - one of four King's Theatre geldings in the race, the other 3 being Minellas and all looking nicely bred, Malcolm Denmark's Minella Scamp in particular (although he'd make more appeal here if Greatrex were training him). His P2P race had some nice types in and the 4th has since come out and won again. Good looking bumper this. Paul Nicholls runners worth a second look as well today - he likes to target this Chepstow card with some decent types. Keltus in the opener, Lightentertainment in the 3.35,For Two in the 4.45 and Fox Run in the 5.15 all look capable of winning their respective heats.
4.45 Swynmor 8/1 A juvenile I rated last term and he looked like dotting up over CD last year before departing at the last. I am willing to give him a chance today to show his effort at Cheltenham wasn't his true running. He smacked the first that day and was on the back foot from there on. The mark looks fair and can go on this year.
Any idea why he left Tim Vaughan Nass? I thought that fall knocked his confidence but hopefully Rebecca Curtis has helped put some lead back in his pencil (she definitely would put some in mine ). Big ask at the weights today though.
Tam - I know a bit strange picking 3 in the same race but he has done quite well over the last 6 weeks or so and there are 30 odd runners - he does give value prices if nothing else I suppose.
Asked Stick the very same Q yesterday. Not sure perhaps just quality of Curtis yard over quantity of Vaughan?
I know this race is already well represented on todays thread but wanted to put it up as a very good value each way selection. York 3.30 Jimmy Styles 33-1 This horse shows his best this time of year and could easily run into a place and with a little luck in running even take the prize, at the price he just looks too good to look over.
