Plumpton subject to inspection. A race I wanted to bring attention to was the 2:50 at Wolverhampton, where I think a big price winner might be on the cards, and not only that, there are three horses who could potentially spring a surprise,and even more crazy is that I'm talking about a 7-runner race! Cool Sky and English Summer head the market. Cool Sky has the 7lb claim of Robert Tart (Imagine the headline material if he makes it big) to offset its penalty, but has had 3 tough races and I think might find its progression halted from top weight here. Jamie Spencer rides English Summer and there is no doubt in my mind that he will bid to make all. However, I think he might not ride the horse as agressively as he needs, and that he will leave himself vulnerable to some better turn of foots against his one paced, although very tough, front-runner. Torero is coming back from a long break and you would magine will come on for the outing, and a little respite from the handicapper will help before that one progresses throughout the spring. Cheers For Thea remains well treated but has shown no sign of wanting a mile and a half and I cannot see it changing today. That leaves 3 remaining. Firstly, Admiral Duque 20/1is beginning to look well handicapped, and he won a 1m 6f race here at Wolverhampton by 7 lengths off a mark of 72 with Josh Baudains also on that day (rides him regularly). Off 73 today, he is clearly feasibly handicapped (the same 7lb claim applies today as did then), and he had a bit of a nightmare o the bend LTO where a) the held up horses got left for dead and b) he was taken out so wide by another horse he s never going to fully recover, eventually being eased 11L behind the winner Mica Mika. Secondly we have Boston Blue 25/1, where similar sentiments can be echoed. He was 2nd off a mark of 80 at Newbury in Summer 2010, and the handicapper has dropped him another 5lb today to allow him to race off just 67- his lowest mark for quite some time. He was well beaten the last twice but the race comments and race replays tell you that he hasn't really been fully tuned the last twice, and the positive thing for us today is that his sort of thing has been done before. In the summer of 2011, the horse was often beaten in similar margins 'lost place, always behind' appearing in the comments box yet again, and the horse dropped from a reappearance mark of 83 down to 69, where a 7lb claimer in an Apprentice race saw him run on well to score by around 2 and a half lengths. Interestingly, he had been running over staying races -1m6f and 2m- before being dropped into that 1m 3f claimer. Iterestingly, that is also the case today- tailed off in a 2m race just two starts ago. Jimmy Quinn will get the leg up for the first time and I expect to see some money for him and also a much bolder showing in a race that really does look to have been left open for this sort of horse. Finally, JEZZA 20/1 has dropped 11lb in its last three starts, albeit over the space of a year, and no doubt will have come on for the run when blowing away the cobwebs around Wolverhampton the last twice and will strip fitter, 'never on termsand 'outpaced' the last twice. Dropping to a mark of 62 and unning of bottom weight, you would have to think this double Wolverhampton scorer could go alot better today and crucially I think Joe Fanning beng on board might see this one track English Summer on the pace, which I think may be the key to this race. English Summer alone I dont think will see the others off from the front, but if Joe can track the pace all the way round and stay close, I can see him having too much stamina and kick off the final bend, so tactically I think Jezza will have the ideal race, especially when you consider it was a cosy winner of 65 here 2 years ago when taking up the running on the home bend that day. My concern is that in jostling for the lead he may set himself up to be mowed down by onof the other two outsiders- especially Boston Blue if they really increase the tempo from some way out. The staking plan I would have is 60%/20%/20%, so divide your tenner with £6, £2, and £2 wins for example, with the larger bet on Jezza, and still a handsome profit if the other two scoot in. I have taken Jezza on the exchanges though at 44 (Betdaq), so I do have slightly larger odds on that one than the bookmakers best price I have quoted above. Good luck if you do play- I've been wrong many, many times before so don't go mad, but I just thought the race might be teed up given the doubts over the front two, and the stamina of Cheers For Thea. Have a good day folks -Top.
ADMIRAL DUQUE @ 20's for me toppy, has a great chance at the weights. What I dont get is the price of Cheers For Thea, surely no chance tomorrow,,,,,,famous last words!
Wolverhampton 4.50 Charm Cry 10-1 This is an interesting horse for tomorrow in as much as it races of of a mark of 59. This horse ran very respectably in it's first two races at a mile and 7f respectively. It competed against decent horses from decent stables and ran well, in it's second race it finished in 4th place, 2 1/2 lengths behind Tight Knit who also happens to run tomorrow at Wolverhampton off of a mark of 75 and is 6-4 fav. It was then dropped in distance to 6f and then 5f. I know infinitely less about horse racing than Mark Johnston but I do know this is not a 5f horse. Tomorrow Charm Cry is steped up from this 5f to 9 1/2 f and I think it will go very close indeed as this horse will travel well if the sprinting has not messed him up, in the race with Tight Knit he traveled much the better and only lost his chance when they quickened. Take the price best odds in case it is punted, it is better than a 59 rated horse.
Toppy you make a compelling case for all 3 horses! I did look at Boston Blue as Tony Carroll is in belting form but I definitely have a concern that he isn't as good a horse on the AW
Following Toppy and Stick with this one as I think they have spotted a really good bet. Plaudits to Topclass if this one comes in as I wouldn't have looked at the race otherwise. 2.50 Wolverhampton Admirable Duque 20/1 Although current odds on shot Cool Sky will prove difficult to beat in his search for a 4 timer with the talented apprentice Robert Tart's 7lb claim allowing him to race off a 1lb lower mark than his latest victory, I think Admirable Duque is a fascinating contender for Dominic Ffrench Davis who is 9lb below winning at Southwell impressively in March and only 1lb above the mark he bolted in by 7L at the course under today's rider Josh Boudains in December 2011. Moreover, the blinkers and eye-shields are he has worn on his last 3 victories reapplied after being absent in his two recent starts after a 3 month absence as he drops back into a Class 5 on the all weather for the first time since his demolition at Wolves 13 months ago which I think is far more valuable form to look at in comparison to the mark he won off at Southwell given that its hard to compare form from that course's unique surface. Racing today off a mark of 73, Admirable Duque was in fact rated 89 after his comfortable success at Southwell in March as his mark has fallen rapidly in just 3 subsequent starts on the all weather (he did race 5 times on turf but he's a considerably better horse on the all weather so I am discounting those efforts). Focusing on his more recent efforts, I thought he ran a really encouraging race on his 2nd last start off a 4lb higher mark on his first start for 3 months without his usual headgear at Lingfield last month. Held up in his traditional fashion, Admirable Duque travelled wide throughout the 12f contest and he was bumped twice with about 2 1/2 furlongs to go which would have done him no favours. In addition, he was carried extremely wide into the turn and was hampered by the eventual winner Focail Maith with about 1f to go as he regathered momentum and ran on really well to the line as he made up a pretty decent amount of ground to go down by only 2.75L. That race is pretty decent form with the winner holding his form really well off a 6lb higher mark whilst the 2nd Noble Silk has won off a 4lb higher mark in the interim period. His last race off a 3lb higher mark of 76 was a little less encouraging but he was hampered and forced extremely wide with about 5f to go in a race that did not suit anything coming from off the pace. He didn't exactly look like a winner in waiting but he should strip fitter for his two recent runs, and I am confident of a really bold show given that he gets a further ease in the weights, the reapplication of his favoured headgear and a drop to this grade for the first time since winning impressively a little over a year ago. Regular pilot Josh Boudains, who claims a very valuable 7lb, clearly gets on very well with this 7 year old having partnered him to his last 3 successes and this represents his only engagement of the day. Dominic Ffrench Davis has his horses in very good order at present with a win and two places from his last 5 runners and this too is his only runner of the day. An 89 rated horse on the AW 4 starts back and only 10 months ago, I feel Admirable Duque has dropped to a very attractive mark of 73 and I'd be pretty disappointed if he wasn't able to be very competitive off his current rating. With English Summer and Torero hopefully ensuring they go a good pace, I think the race will be run to suit Admirable Duque and am confident of a big run at the very least. Its a real pain in the ass that there are only 7 runners and 2 places paid but I definitely feel 20/1 is a very good price. If everything goes to plan, I'm quietly confident of a really big showing from this 7 year old and although current favourite Cool Sky will be tough to beat it certainly doesn't look an impossible task and hopefully Admirable Duque can land the prize at a lovely price. I'm also having a small RFC with Jezza on TC's analysis.
Admiral Duque best priced 20/1 with only two bookies, and shorter on the exchanges at around 16/1. Little bits of money. The other pair are friendless but that doesnt concern me.
Torero 12/1 will do for me, should be a steering job off 66 against this lot Will have a bit of 16s the other Ryan runner in the 4.20 Au Renoir. two singles and a dbl, small stakes, my wee interest for the day.
After backing Dzeko to score first yesterday, I have taken it as a cue not to bet this week. So I will sit back and watch you all plunder the bookmakers. Then I will do the same at Taunton on Saturday if the weather doesn't interfere.
I noticed the Owls are 2/1 to win at MK Dons tomorrow night - that should appeal to you as a bet Nass, given how fond you are of my team But seriously, I watched the lads win at Hull on Saturday on the net and they played really well. I think 2/1 to win at MKD is a very nice price.
what are the massive doing playing against teams like wee MKD? I actually think you might be right, I won't be playing but it isn't the worst 2/1 shot I have seen.
1.10 Plumpton Mr Bingley 33/1 each way Ran against the New One on debut over fences when beaten a long way. He actually ran well for a long way and i see it as a fairly encouraging hurdle run. If you consider that experience and nothing more then you have a fairly decent bumper horse running for you who comes from an outstanding family against plenty of horses with similar ability. This chap now runs with a little savvy as well hopefully. 33/1 is a big price.
AppraiseForm -2.52 Month to date. I'm in the firing line today with.... Owner Occupier 1.40P 1.5 PTS Tidal Dance 3.40P 1.0 PTS Good luck today.
Cool Sky was the pick, with Cheers For Thea best of the rest. By David Baxter, live from Wolverhampton (AW) (4 mins ago)
