Some good racing tomorrow on the flat from chester and then some pretty good evening jump racing from Punchestowns. So far just the one bet for me tomorrow 2.35 Chester- Overturn- 6/1 The best dual puropose horse since Sea Pigeon has his 1st flat run of the season for this. He won this race last year, when dictating the race from the start to finish from the front last year. Track and conditions will suit- Is drawn in stall number 8 where as the favourite has been given a horror draw in number 19. Overturn has had his best jump season of his career, beat Oscar Whiskey @ ascot, winning the fighting fith hurdle & coming 2nd in the Champion Hurdle. So if he can carry that over to the flat he has been off since then so will be fresh on form and raring to go.
19.50 Punchestown- On The Fringe 7/4 A competitive hunters' chase on paper and the 2010 winner receives my vote. Prior to a rare mistake where crashing out at the Punchestown Festival last month, Enda Bolger's charge had been knocking hard on the door in these types of events and it would be surprising were he not to be in the shake-up come the end.
3.05 Chester Foxy Music 10/1 Exam tomorrow afternoon so no write up but fancy Foxy Music to run a big race. Clearly goes very well at the track with 2 C+D wins and another 4 efforts where he was beaten 2L or less from 10 runs at the track. Soft underfoot conditions should be no problem and his front running style is very beneficial at Chester, as long as he doesn't have too much competition up front. Although he'll have to defy a career high mark, he made a very pleasing reappearance finishing a short head behind a horse that was rated 15lb his superior off level weights before being outclassed in a recent Group 3. Trainer Eric Alston had a winner the other day and Graham Gibbons takes the ride and has a good record on this 8 year old.
14:35 Chester - Shubaat (Interesting lightly-raced stayer who has squeezed-in at the bottom of the handicap from Reserve#1. Sire Monsun had a good record in the mud, and damsire Unfuwain was a real galloper who enjoyed cut in the ground too. Good draw, and could go well in this always-difficult handicap). GL today everyone!
Intresting choice- is very unexposed so will be intresting to see how he runs! He was my 2nd fancy but couldnt get away from my boy Overturn!
This soft ground really interests me, I wonder if the best ground is going to be against the rail, or whether you want to stay away from it. Does anyone have the stats from ATR draw check on five furlong races on soft ground?
Nass don't have a lot of time to research in more detail but quickly entered soft ground at Chester over 5f by clicking first race- cba to look more detail because busy atm. Race Date, Time Going Class Runners Win Draw 2nd Draw 3rd Draw 4th Draw 25 Jun 2011,16:20 Soft 3 11 7 4 9 5 21 Aug 2008,19:10 Soft 6 9 3 (4) 4 (6) 1 7 (10) 30 Jun 2007,16:30 Soft 3 10 10 3 5 2 10 Sep 2005,14:40 Soft 4 9 9 (11) 4 (5) 1 (2) 3 (4)
Cheers RV. I was going to put up the Quinn horse in the first but with the ground I am just going to leave it alone. Same goes for the Chester Cup.
Yes indeed, Overturn is one super racehorse, always gives his best. Have to believe that Shubaat will stay otherwise no point in having a go, but the Chester Cup will find him out if he doesn't! His young trainer is a real up-and-comer but don't know too much about the apprentice jockey, have to admit.
Likewise and with that reason and I just think the season Overturn had over the jumps he is in the best shape! and just cant look past this. But will be a fascinating race!
On Chester going, RP reports: 8:55am News from the clerk Andrew Morris was pleased to find that any overnight rain had been avoided. Speaking on Wednesday morning, he said: "The going remains soft, good to soft in places. It's been a misty morning but we should get some sun over the next few hours. "There is the risk of light rain during racing but I'm pleased with the latest reports for Thursday and Friday, which indicate it should be dry."
Morning, all. Am steering well clear of Chester today as it looks Tricky with a capital ‘T’ but will highlight one across the Welsh border where I think an old plot may be about to unleashed: Martial Law (7.40 Ffos Las) – one of my great skills has always been to be able to detect what old rogues are up to and this evening the activities of those Pipe’s down in Wales have alerted the old ‘Chuckle radar’. Martial Law makes his debut in a NH handicap, off a lowly 106, after what shall we say were 3 ‘interesting’ runs in novice heats. Was formerly more than useful on the level being a multiple winner (two of those wins were for old boy Andre Fabre and the other in Australia) and even ran in races at Listed and Group level. Given his ability on the flat and this very low mark I really can see a ‘coup’ occurring and Martial Law imposing himself this evening. Good luck one and all.
Good morning all... I hope we are all well and in good form... Looks like the forum is going the way of Overturn and i would also like to put my vote towards his credentials to winning today... I hope that dosnt mean that ive jinxed him as im not having the best of form at the mo on the racing... Just a quick look at the cards to see if there is any others to be jinxed... Back in a bit...
Nass: Does not really answer your question but here's a bit from an RP publication by Graham Wheldon "The Effects Of The Draw" (dont worry, it ain't that old). The relevant part for Chester would be: Quote: "Soft ground seems to accentuate the advantage enjoyed by runners drawn low, until it has been raced on a few times, when a higher draw becomess less of a disadvantage as the ground on the inside becomes chewed-up". Unquote.
Non-runners at Chester today now up to 12! And already 4 have pulled out of tomorrow’s action. Meanwhile, is it merely a coincidence that in today’s opener at Chester horses drawn 9, 10, 12 and 13 have been taken out. I don’t think so myself!
So low in the Lily Agnes and high later in the meeting if it remains soft. Interesting to see how it plays out, but not with my hard earned!!
