So its time for the fillies to do what they do best in 1000 Guineas day (and its my little boys christening day too ) One bet for me tomorrow- 3.10 Newbury- Maybe- 6/4 This unbeaten fillie displayed both a lot of ability and a good attitude when unbeaten in 5 runs last year, and she looks an ideal Guineas type. Will it finish of a fantastic week for Ballydoyle- my head and my money says yes
I think Maybe will get turned over in the 1000 Guineas. The 2YO form is pretty solid for the fillies and the likes of Maybe and Lyric Of Light are steady performers but I feel one or two might just be improving, unexposed types such as The Fugue and particularly MOONSTONE MAGIC (who has shown she also handles the softish going).
Maybe would have been worth a bet a few days ago, but with Camelot winning yesterday her price has become to short. I just can't be backing a 6/4 shot that I haven't seen for a year on dead ground, against a field of unexposed types. She may well **** home, but I'm passing.
3.50 Newmarket Maarek 11/1 I'm a big fan of this fella and think he could run a huge race tomorrow. David Peter Nagle's 5 year old was a rapid improver last season and has continued that progression this year. Maarek first came to my attention in September last year when he landed a 25 runner event at The Curragh in fine style to scoot home by a length. That day he beat a horse call Murura that I really, really rate and he subsequently went straight into my notebook. That day, the front two drew well clear on the heavy ground and it really was a very good performance. He was raised 8lb for that effort which emphasised the authority he won with that day. After this race, Maarek took a 6 month break and ran a very good race to finish a very narrowly beaten 2nd again at The Curragh. Under Seamie Heffernan, Maarek probably hit the front a little too soon and was swallowed up in the final strides by Criosultan to go down by about a neck. However, he lost absolutely nothing in defeat in my eyes and Criosultan has franked that form by running a stormer behind the excellent Excelebration, although that rival won in a canter. After that narrow defeat, I was very surprised that the handicapper left his mark of 97 the same and Maarek proved he was still a very much improving animal by winning at Naas on his last start. I put him up as a very confident selection that day back in the hands of Wayne Lordon, who had commitments to retained trainer David Wachman in Maarek's 2nd last race, and gave this 5 year old a fine ride to win by 0.5L. This gelding often takes a little bit of time to get going and I thought Lordon may have hit the front a little too soon but Maarek was always holding them as he scored in impressive fashion under a welter burden of 10 stone. The form of that race took a major boost the other day with the second Gordon Lord Byron scoring impressively at Tipperary off a 2lb higher mark. Moreover, the 3rd that day My Girl Anna ran a very good 3rd in the same race off a 2lb higher mark to solidify Maarek's form. Moreover, his trainer said after the race that he thought it was probably a little on the dry side for his liking so I think you can upgrade this success. Tomorrow, Maarek makes the journey across the Irish Sea with a 5lb penalty and he has to contend with a mark of 102 and a racing weight of 9-8 in this very competitive handicap. Trainer David Peter Nagle is a very shrewd operator having only sent 3 to England in his career and although he's yet to taste victory on British soil his 2 of his horses have finished 2nd whilst the other was Maarek who ran a cracker in the Ayr Silver Cup to finish a narrowly beaten 4th under what I thought wasn't the best of rides from Andrew Elliot that day. Joseph O'Brien takes the ride tomorrow and he looks a very encouraging jockey booking. The current going is described as good to soft but Aidan O'Brien said yesterday that it was proper soft ground when he walked the track this morning and the softer it is the more it will suit Maarek. Although he faces a huge field of 27, Maarek seems to thrive in these massive runner handicaps with 3 wins of 20+ runners to his name to date which is a huge positive. I'm happy with the draw in stall 24 given how todays races went and it should allow him to be dropped in the midfield. Although Joseph is going to have to be at his best to judge the timing of this ride, he demonstrated on Camelot how good a jockey he is and I amn't overly concerned. 11/1 represents a big price to me given his proven ability to act in field such as this and if everything falls right I'm confident he can improve again to land this valuable handicap.
5.35 Newmarket Good of Luck 10/1 Really fancy Mick Channon's 3 year old makes who his handicap debut off what I think is a very lenient mark of 82 tomorrow and I'll be utterly shocked if this represents the ceiling of his ability. However, he is up against a bunch of other unexposed types so its definitely possible he could run into a very good sort here. Unraced as a 2 year old, this colt made his debut over 10f at Lingfield in a maiden back in February in very impressive fashion as he landed the contest by 3.75L. I remember prior to the race starting Mick Channon Jnr. saying that this fella was a bit of a big baby and wasn't fully wound up. Those comments seemed reflective in the betting as he drifted out from 10/3 to go off a 9/2 shot but he showed a blend of a very likeable attitude and a touch of class to score going away. The form of that race looks fine with the 3rd Scatter Dice winning twice subsequently but Good of Luck certainly looks a cut above the rest. His opening handicap mark of 82 looks extremely workable, especially given the comments that he wasn't fully wound up and he would come on for the run. He makes his turf debut tomorrow and its a complete unknown as to how he will act on the ground and how he'll take to the surface. However, I certainly think he looks to have been let in off a rather lenient mark and in cases like this you've just got to go with your gut. Moreover, this son of Authorized has entries in both The Derby and King Edward VII Stakes which certainly indicates to me he's well thought of at home. Martin Harley takes the ride tomorrow for Channon who has his horses in pretty decent order at the moment. With BetVictor as short as 6/1, I think the 10/1 offered by Ladbrokes is a stand out price and completely negates the unknowns about his ability to act on the ground. He should be a much improved animal for his debut run and off a mark of 82 I think he could potentially rout his rivals tomorrow and I've had a decent sized bet in the hope that he does.
3.50 Parisian Pyramid Showed his well being LTO despite being taken around the houses by Mssr Spencer. He beat the field home on his 'side' and yet was beaten a good 6 lengths at the line. He goes on this ground, he is race fit and I think they have got him to a good mark to exploit here. 14/1 is a fair EW bet. Add in Discourse in the big race for a good day hopefully.
A couple of days ago the front three in the 1000 Guineas betting were three of the first four in the Oaks betting. Whilst that double is the most commonly completed one in recent times, I think that it also indicates that these fillies are all viewed more as middle distance three-year-olds and could be susceptible to something that has just mile speed. That said it is hard to fancy most of the outsiders so the winner is in the first six in the betting on Sunday morning. I am surprised that Franke Dettori opted for Lyric Of Light over Discourse, as the latter appeared to be the one with more scope, and he went as far as tipping his own mount when he appeared on Chris Evans' Radio 2 breakfast show on Friday. He now finds himself on the verge of a Guineas tip double having nominated Camelot for the 2000. King Shergar, Maybe was 6/4 for the 1000 Guineas on Saturday morning and the odds have not shortened because that will already have factored in any ante-post doubles running on. If Camelot had been turned over, the bookies would probably have tried to get her. I would not get involved at such skinny odds myself but I am not ruling out her winning.
Should you not be walking around a waterlogged field, occasionally wafting a bit of metal at a little ball?
Morning all. Usually not one for the gallop reports but Discourse apparently failed to sparkle at all in her galllop leaving Frankie unhappy. Read this on several links via twitter and that bloke I hate on RP the couch said the same describing her work as "laboured".
Starting early today CITYSCAPE 9.35 SHA TIN - would love him to win for Charlton/Doyle - big danger is Ambitious Dragon - didn't show his turn of foot at Meydan. Cityscape the bet though
RV, the little conditions race at Salisbury today could be interesting, one of the few Hannon impressive juveniles is out, and is up against a Beckett newcomer who could be interesting for the future. Surprised that Hughes has to ride at Salisbury on Guineas day!! Over at HQ their maiden looks a really hot little heat with the Godolphin horse costing plenty of money, and the Hannon horse looks taking on paper too. Add in another Pearl Bloodstock horse and an interesting couple at longer prices and it could be very informative. Blog will start up again soon, now we seem to be getting better ground and the better pedigrees out. I have backed Emirates Echo for very small stakes in the maiden. I think on breeding its one of the more interesting types and the yard can get one ready for its debut. Surprised that its 12/1 when the Bell horse is 9s!
Yepp that Hannon horse looked very good first time out and should go in again today. Was thinking the same about Hughes. Emirates Echo is a good price -really like the yard and as you say they can get one ready. LYRIC STREET my bet of the day got 16s last night when I posted it - only slight move to 14s but I think it will win
I wouldn't go overboard on the Discourse gallop reports. She started at 16/1 on her debut when beating stablemate and 2/5 favourite Gamilati. That suggests that she has never been a superstar on the gallops at home.
3.15 Newmarket - RADIO GAGA WIN 205/1 & 104/1 & 16/1 Place market. Have just signed up for Betdaq as I closed my betfair account a while ago and they will not let me reopen it. Anyways I am a big fan of the exchanges when it comes to backing an outsider and I like the look of Radio Gaga in the guineas as a big priced one who may well run a massive race. I am already on Maybe at decent prices so decided to study the race for savers. I am more than happy to back this one at 205/1 for the £1 available (if it is still there after writing this) and then stick a bigger bet on at 104/1 for the win and 16s for the place. She is a filly that will improve with racing in my opinion and following a good juvenile campaign (winner of maiden before finishing 2nd of 20 in a nursery and 3rd of 14 in a listed heat) she returned to the track to contest the Fred Darling at Newbury on soft ground and finished runner up to Moonstone Magic (8/1 shot today). I thought the way Radio Gaga travelled in to the race that day was seriously impressive and although Moonstone Magic quickened up the best she had the benefit of a run and I liked the way the runner up kept on all the way to the line without weakening. There is no doubt she has plenty to find on the bare form but I do like her a lot and at the prices is worth a small dabble imo. 2.05 Newmarket Caucus 10/1 (BOG) Having studied this race last night for around 45 minutes I was gutted this morning to see that Lyric Street is now a non-runner as I really fancied him to win this race at around the 16/1 mark. However another that I liked when looking through the replays was the John Gosden trained Caucus. He has some very fair form to his name including finishing 3rd behind Dandino in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot 2010 and again filling the same position in Group 3 company and listed company on his next two outings. He produced two slightly disappointing displays after and therefore has to come in to this with risks attached but I don’t think he stayed the 2m at Sandown and therefore that effort is easily forgiven. That was his first start for John Gosden and it is interesting he has persevered with a horse who has obviously had problems (had been off 236 days prior to his Sandown run and been absent since (346 days). If returning to form a mark of 100 surely isn’t beyond this horse and at 10/1 I think he is worth a small punt.
Short and sweet from me: DIALA 14/1 Came screaming home behind LYRIC OF LIGHT on debut and was then a ready winner in a big field maiden next time out. Seems to have slipped under the radar and with more improvement to come and the scope to reverse form with Lyric of Light, I think she is a nice each way bet. Have a good day enjoy the racing, im off to the football for Hodgsons final away game before England.
You could tell that David Redvers thought that New Pearl was pretty special on the morning line yesterday. Runs in the future stars maidens.
